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Book Tests of excess forecast volatility in the foreign exchange and stock markets

Download or read book Tests of excess forecast volatility in the foreign exchange and stock markets written by Kenneth Froot and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds techniques. We find evidence that both exchange rates and stock prices are excessively volatile and that expected returns on foreign exchange and stocks move too much. We also investigate whether these findings can be attributed to time-varying risk premia, but in our tests the data provide little support for such an alternative hypothesis.

Book Tests of excess forecast volatility in the foreign exchange and stock markets

Download or read book Tests of excess forecast volatility in the foreign exchange and stock markets written by Kenneth A. Froot and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Financial Volatility and Real Economic Activity

Download or read book Financial Volatility and Real Economic Activity written by Kevin Daly and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 1999. The issue of financial volatility, especially since financial deregulation, has given rise to concerns regarding the effects of increased financial volatility on real economic activity. Two issues represent a substantial challenge to financial economists with respect to these concerns. The first relates to the identification of the causes of increased volatility in financial markets. Identification is a first step towards increasing both financial economists' and policy-makers' understanding of the interrelated causes of financial volatility. The second requires linking the effects of increased financial volatility to the real sector of the economy by examining the channels through which financial volatility influences fundamental economic variables. In order to address these two issues, the analysis initially develops and estimates a model which is capable of explaining the financial and business cycle determinates of movements in the conditional volatility of the Australian All Industrials stock market index. Evidence suggests that a significant linkage exists between the conditional volatility of the money supply. Models are then developed to examine how monetary volatility is transmitted to the volatility of financial asset prices, inflation and real output in an open economy. The results indicate that while financial volatility has increased to some extent since the late 1980s, this has been transferred non-uniformly towards increasing volatility of both real and financial activity.

Book How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk

Download or read book How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk written by Peter F. Christoffersen and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Market Volatility

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Book Heteroskedastic Intra daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Download or read book Heteroskedastic Intra daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Wen-ling Tsai Lin and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Forecasting Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets

Download or read book Forecasting Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Fearghal Kearney and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We utilise functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. Based on existing techniques in the literature, the FTS model is shown to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical data during the volatile 2006-2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The evaluation is performed under both an in-sample and out-of-sample testing framework with our fi ndings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic signi cance of the results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.

Book On Exchange Rates

Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Book Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Book Quantitative Financial Economics

Download or read book Quantitative Financial Economics written by Keith Cuthbertson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of the hugely successful Quantitative Financial Economics has been revised and updated to reflect the most recent theoretical and econometric/empirical advances in the financial markets. It provides an introduction to models of economic behaviour in financial markets, focusing on discrete time series analysis. Emphasis is placed on theory, testing and explaining ‘real-world’ issues. The new edition will include: Updated charts and cases studies. New companion website allowing students to put theory into practice and to test their knowledge through questions and answers. Chapters on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping and market microstructure.

Book Volatility and Correlation

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Book International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World

Download or read book International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World written by Silvio Borner and published by Springer. This book was released on 1988-06-18 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings focus attention on issues in the present polycentric world economy in the realm of international debt, trade, investment, financial markets and policy co-ordination. The book attempts to deal with the opposing forces and the basic schisma underlying these issues.

Book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.