Download or read book Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Testing for Speculative Bubbles in the Stock Market written by Lii-Tarn Chen and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by Tom Engsted and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Working Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Stock Markets written by Ulrich-Michael Homm and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Stock Market Bubbles Volatility and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.
Download or read book Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Download or read book A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles written by Kenneth D. West and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.
Download or read book Identifying Speculative Bubbles written by Bradley Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-19 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.
Download or read book Detecting Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by Martin T. Bohl and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Download or read book Testing for Bubbles in Real Estate Price Cycles written by Chris Brooks and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past fifteen years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. The present analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found but these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s. Investors in property stocks should be aware that in periods when bubbles are present the market does not move on the basis of the fundamentals and abrupt price corrections can occur.
Download or read book Are There Rational Bubbles in the US Stock Market Overview and a New Test written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A speculative bubble is usually defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues surrounding the topic of asset bubbles, the existence of bubbles is inherently an empirical issue that has not been settled yet. This paper reviews several important tests and offers one more methodology that improves upon the existing ones. The new test is applied to the annual US stock market data spanning over a century and at the monthly frequency covering the post-war period. Although we find evidence of stock price bubble in both cases, the post-war period exhibit only positive component whereas the annual data exhibit some episode of negative bubble.
Download or read book Detecting Speculative Bubbles in an It Intensive Stock Market written by Juha-Pekka Junttila and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a battery of simple unit root test procedures with alternative null hypotheses we find some evidence of speculative bubbles in the Finnish stock market for monthly data on industry portfolio returns from the 1990's. The bubbles seem to be present in the information technology (IT) returns and only during years 1997 - 2000. Furthermore, via the use of recursive causality tests we find that the dependence of the Finnish stock market on the development of macroeconomic variables varies significantly for different industry portfolio returns, and the IT-returns would seem to have a strong role in affecting particularly the time series behaviour of monetary variables at the European level, but not on the real side of the economy, neither domestic nor foreign.
Download or read book Advances in Experimental Markets written by Timothy N. Cason and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experimental methods are now a mainstream empirical methodology in economics. The papers in this volume represent some recent developments in research on experimental markets. The articles span a variety of topics related to experimental markets, including auctions, taxation, institutional differences, coordination in markets, and learning. Contributors to the volume include many of the most distinguished researchers in the area.
Download or read book Stock Markets Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth written by Mathias Binswanger and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1999 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the role of speculative bubbles in the stock market, this text argues that, provided they are sustainable, bubbles may have a positive effect on the market. They may provide additional investment opportunities with the potential to increase aggregate profits and improve economic welfare.
Download or read book Banking Crises written by Garett Jones and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2014-01-14 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do banks collapse? Are financial systems more fragile in recent decades? Can policies to fix the banking system do more harm than good? What's the history of banking crises? With dozens of brief, non-technical articles by economists and other researchers, Banking Crises offers answers from diverse scholarly viewpoints.
