Download or read book Testing Efficiency in Small and Large Financial Markets written by Wale Dare and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate practical tests of market efficiency that are not subject to the joint-hypothesis problem inherent in tests that require the specification of an equilibrium model of asset prices. The methodology we propose simplify the testing procedure considerably by reframing the market efficiency question into one about the existence of a local martingale measure. As a consequence, the need to directly verify the no dominance condition is completely avoided. We also investigate market efficiency in the large financial market setting with the introduction of notions of asymptotic no dominance and market efficiency that remain consistent with the small market theory. We obtain a change of numeraire characterization of asymptotic market efficiency and suggest empirical tests of inefficiency in large financial markets.

Download or read book In Finance Size Matters written by Biaggio Bossone and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-06 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the relationship between production efficiency in financial intermediation and financial system size. The study predicts and tests for the existence of "systemic scale economies" (SSEs), whereby value-maximizing intermediaries operating in large systems are expected to have lower production costs and lower costs of risk absorption and reputation signaling than intermediaries operating in small systems. The study investigates different channels through which the SSEs work their effects through the intermediaries and estimates such effects using a large banking data panel. The study shows strongly supporting evidence in favor of SSEs. It also finds that the institutional environment, the risk environment, and market concentration affect significantly the production efficiency of financial intermediaries.

Download or read book Adaptive Markets written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-14 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

Download or read book Investment Valuation written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-01-31 with total page 1014 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation is a topic that is extensively covered in business degree programs throughout the country. Damodaran's revisions to "Investment Valuation" are an addition to the needs of these programs.

Download or read book On Market Efficiency and Volatility Estimation written by Wale Dare and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a non-parametric procedure for estimating the realized spot volatility of a price process described by an Itô semimartingale with Lévy jumps. The procedure integrates threshold jump elimination technique of Mancini (2009) with a frame (Gabor) expansion of the realized trajectory of spot volatility. We show that the procedure converges in probability in L2([0; T]) for a wide class of spot volatility processes, including those with discontinuous paths. Our analysis assumes the time interval between price observations tends to zero; as a result, the intended application is for the analysis of high frequency financial data. We investigate practical tests of market efficiency that are not subject to the joint-hypothesis problem inherent in tests that require the specification of an equilibrium model of asset prices. The methodology we propose simplify the testing procedure considerably by reframing the market efficiency question into one about the existence of a local martingale measure. As a consequence, the need to directly verify the no dominance condition is completely avoided. We also investigate market efficiency in the large financial market setting with the introduction of notions of asymptotic no dominance and market efficiency that remain consistent with the small market theory. We obtain a change of numeraire characterization of asymptotic market efficiency and suggest empirical tests of inefficiency in large financial markets. We argue empirically that the U.S. treasury futures market is informational inefficient. We show that an intraday strategy based on the assumption of cointegrated treasury futures prices earns statistically significant excess return over the equally weighted portfolio of treasury futures. We also provide empirical backing for the claim that the same strategy, financed by taking a short position in the 2-Year treasury futures contract, gives rise to a statistical arbitrage.

Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.

Download or read book Efficient Market Hypothesis written by Mario Chinas and published by Library of Cyprus. This book was released on 2019-02-23 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the Black & White version of the book, available at a discount, which does not include the research data and analysis tables. There is also a Full Colour version that includes all the research data and analysis tables. What is a Stock Market? How do stock markets operate? Who invests in a stock market and when is it an appropriate tool for investment? Why do we care if a stock market is efficient or not? Where can we find evidence of market efficiency? With what tools can we test market efficiency?These are some of the questions that this book approaches. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a theory in financial economics, developed by Eugene Fama, which states that asset prices fully reflect all available information. Thus, it is implied that stocks always trade at their fair value, making it impossible for investors to "beat the market" via technical or fundamental analysis, since market prices should only react to new information.There are three variants of the EMH: "weak," "semi-strong," and "strong" form. The weak form of the EMH claims that prices already reflect all past publicly available market information. The semi-strong form claims that prices reflect all publicly available information, thus price changes occur to reflect new publicly available information. The strong form adds to this that prices instantly reflect even hidden private "insider" information.Testing the EMH is no easy task: Quantifying the availability of information and its effect on prices and market efficiency is challenging, making research on the subject difficult, time consuming and open to criticism. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that markets at best reach semi-strong form efficiency, with weak form efficiency being the norm. However, even this is challenged by the critics of EMH, via concepts such as Behavioural Finance.This book aims to familiarise the reader with the concept of EMH, covering the fundamentals and relevant literature. We then discuss market efficiency tests for Weak Form Market Efficiency, examining in more detail the day-of-the-week effect and its significance on stock market efficiency. The day-of-the-week effect is defined as a pattern where a certain day of the week has abnormal returns continuously. It is an anomaly that violates the random walk hypothesis, and thus implies that a market is not Weak Form efficient.We put theory into practice through the Empirical Research section which is divided into two parts, looking at two different approaches to researching the day-of-the-week effect, via the examination of actual research examples on a small European stock exchange. Both of these Thesis tested the hypothesis of random walk to determine the authenticity of weak form market efficiency for a small emerging stock market within the EU (the Cyprus Stock Exchange).

Download or read book A Reappraisal of the Efficiency of Financial Markets written by Rui M. Campos Guimarães and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 828 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tests of Informational Efficiency in Financial Markets written by Alysa V. Shcherbakova and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study we examine a causal relationship between series of returns and traded volumes in high-frequency data. Our analysis is based on the methodology of Ghysels, Gourieroux and Jasiak (2000), who develop a qualitative framework in which dynamics of financial series are restricted to transitions between a finite number of states, represented by Markov chains with specific transition probabilities. Linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are used to evaluate statistical causality between series of volumes and returns of various investment vehicles within the parametric and nonparametric frameworks, and for trading and calendar time specifications. Results demonstrate evidence of three causality types, unidirectional from volumes to returns and vice versa, and instantaneous causality. The frequency with which causal relationships are observed increases rapidly as the transaction grid becomes finer, allowing us to infer that while informational efficiency of financial markets holds, opportunities for economic gains may exist at high-frequencies.

Download or read book Size Effect An Overview written by Arthur Ritter and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2015-02-10 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 16,0, University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Research Methods in Finance and Management, language: English, abstract: The size effect is a market anomaly in asset pricing according to the market efficiency theory. According to the current body of research, market anomalies arise either because of inefficiencies in the market or the underlying pricing model must be flawed. Anomalies in the financial markets are typically discovered form empirical tests. These tests usually rely jointly on one null hypothesis H0= markets are efficient AND they perform according to a specified equilibrium model (usually CAPM). Thus, if the empirical study rejects the H0, the reason could either be due to market inefficiency or due to the incorrect model. Market efficiency theory says that the price of an asset fully reflects all current information and is not predictable (Fama 1970). Fama (1997) states that market anomalies, even long-‐term anomalies, are not an indicator for market inefficiencies due to the reason that they randomly split between “underreaction and overreaction, (so) they are consistent with market efficiency” (p. 284), they happen by chance and it is always possible to beat the market by chance. This essay will give an overview of the literature of the size effect and will stress the key theories, empirical methods and findings, as well as the existing body of research about this particular anomaly.

Download or read book The Economic Efficiency of Financial Markets written by Jan Mossin and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Ascent of Market Efficiency written by Simone Polillo and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-15 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Ascent of Market Efficiency weaves together historical narrative and quantitative bibliometric data to detail the path financial economists took in order to form one of the central theories of financial economics—the influential efficient-market hypothesis—which states that the behavior of financial markets is unpredictable. As the notorious quip goes, a blindfolded monkey would do better than a group of experts in selecting a portfolio of securities, simply by throwing darts at the financial pages of a newspaper. How did such a hypothesis come to be so influential in the field of financial economics? How did financial economists turn a lack of evidence about systematic patterns in the behavior of financial markets into a foundational approach to the study of finance? Each chapter in Simone Polillo's fascinating meld of economics, science, and sociology focuses on these questions, as well as on collaborative academic networks, and on the values and affects that kept the networks together as they struggled to define what the new field of financial economics should be about. In doing so, he introduces a new dimension—data analysis—to our understanding of the ways knowledge advances. There are patterns in the ways knowledge is produced, and The Ascent of Market Efficiency helps us make sense of these patterns by providing a general framework that can be applied equally to other social and human sciences.

Download or read book The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence written by Andrew Ang and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.

Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Download or read book Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.

Download or read book Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network written by Joish Bosco and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-18 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Report from the year 2018 in the subject Computer Science - Technical Computer Science, , course: Computer Science, language: English, abstract: Modeling and Forecasting of the financial market have been an attractive topic to scholars and researchers from various academic fields. The financial market is an abstract concept where financial commodities such as stocks, bonds, and precious metals transactions happen between buyers and sellers. In the present scenario of the financial market world, especially in the stock market, forecasting the trend or the price of stocks using machine learning techniques and artificial neural networks are the most attractive issue to be investigated. As Giles explained, financial forecasting is an instance of signal processing problem which is difficult because of high noise, small sample size, non-stationary, and non-linearity. The noisy characteristics mean the incomplete information gap between past stock trading price and volume with a future price. The stock market is sensitive with the political and macroeconomic environment. However, these two kinds of information are too complex and unstable to gather. The above information that cannot be included in features are considered as noise. The sample size of financial data is determined by real-world transaction records. On one hand, a larger sample size refers a longer period of transaction records; on the other hand, large sample size increases the uncertainty of financial environment during the 2 sample period. In this project, we use stock data instead of daily data in order to reduce the probability of uncertain noise, and relatively increase the sample size within a certain period of time. By non-stationarity, one means that the distribution of stock data is various during time changing. Non-linearity implies that feature correlation of different individual stocks is various. Efficient Market Hypothesis was developed by Burton G. Malkiel in 1991.

Download or read book Financial Market Efficiency Index FMEI A Qualitative Tool for Financial Markets written by Rishi Mehra and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government, Regulators, Exchanges, Banks and Institutions collectively make policies and invest huge amount of resources and time to improve the financial system ultimately targeting a more efficient market. The turnover and earning statistics only reveal the quantitative expansion of the market. The statistics don't reveal the qualitative development of the market in terms of improvement in Market Efficiency. Robust market structure and sustainable growth of any market is only possible when the development is grounded on both Qualitative (Market Efficiency) and Quantitative (Turnovers and Earnings).Studies and researches in past have always given importance to assess the scale of efficiency of the market. However, the market efficiency was always checked through some efficiency tests at staggered time frames. The need of the hour is a transparent and easy to understand tool that can measure the market efficiency on a continuous basis with a universal applicability. This research proposes an efficiency measurement tool, “Financial Market Efficiency Index - FMEI”. The Index would derive its parameters from the broad market Index of any country to assess and compare the efficiency across the market. The index would not only measure the Qualitative growth (Market Efficiency) of any market but also compare the market efficiency of all the countries of the world. This would facilitate the stakeholder to take most appropriate decisions to improve their respective markets.