Download or read book Temporal and Causal Dynamics Between the Economy and Presidents written by Taeyong Park and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation project investigates how economic conditions influence presidential support in the United States. In particular, I focus on uncovering the temporal and causal dynamics to better understand the topic.Of the three papers of this dissertation, the first paper develops a Bayesian machine learning method and uses it to examine the temporal dynamics between macro-level income growth and presidential approval. I develop an estimation algorithm to fit multivariate time series models via the Bayesian adaptive lasso, a machine learning-based estimator that penalizes "unimportant" lagged variables and mitigates the problem of overfitting. This new methodological tool allows analysts to employ large-scale time series and a multitude of lagged terms. Consequently, it aids in discovering lagged policy effects or inertia of dynamic relationships, which have so far been difficult to theorize or test. The application of the method to quarterly data for presidential approval ratings uncovers substantial lagged effects and positive long-run effects of income growth.The second paper conducts a causal mediation analysis to explore two causal mechanisms that shape the effect of local unemployment on presidential voting: retrospective voting and issue-ownership voting. In an individual-level mediation analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections, this paper presents evidence that both mechanisms were at work in these most recent elections. The incumbent party, Democrat or Republican, is punished when local unemployment is rising, through its influence on retrospective evaluations of the national economy. Once this mediation effect representing retrospective voting is accounted for, local unemployment bolsters support for Democratic presidential candidates and drives down support for Republican candidates, implying that the two parties' distinct reputations for the unemployment issue engender issue-ownership voting.Finally, the third paper formulates two partisan mechanisms that might moderate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and presidential approval: retrospective and prospective partisan mechanisms. I test this new theoretical framework against quarterly data for multiple economic indicators and presidential approval from 1964 to 2015. The effect of unemployment squares with the prospective partisan mechanism: in response to deteriorating job conditions, citizens reward Democratic presidents and punish Republican presidents with an expectation that Democratic presidents will deal better with the unemployment issue. The effects of inflation, economic growth, and income growth are best explained by the retrospective partisan mechanism: only Republican presidents are punished for deteriorating conditions in terms of these three economic indicators, suggesting that these economic issues are salient for the Republican party and citizens hold Republicans more accountable for performance on these issues.
Download or read book The Economic Report of the President written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 968 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The 1971 Economic Report of the President written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Politics Economics and Presidential Use of Force Decision Making written by Karl R. DeRouen and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to further the understanding of the convergence between foreign policy and domestic politics. Statistical analyses reveal that the unemployment and Soviet crisis activity had positive impacts on levels of US force. Ongoing war had a negative impact. Uses of force also lead to a significant rally effect in presidential approval. It offers explanations of the use of force decision process based upon the noncompensatory theory. Two case studies are presented: Dien Bien Phu, 1954, and Grenada, 1983. Finally, the study discusses the benefits of substituting a domestic economic management and collective security for military force.
Download or read book The Politics of Economic Leadership written by B. Dan Wood and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-09 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The American president is widely viewed by the public and media as the nation's single most influential political and economic figure. But social scientists have often concluded that presidential words fall "on deaf ears" or have little lasting impact on policy or public opinion. Then why did Bill Clinton make 12,798 public references to the economy during his eight years in office compared with Harry Truman's mere 2,124 during his own two terms? Why George W. Bush's 3,351 remarks during his first term? Did all these words matter? The Politics of Economic Leadership is the first comprehensive effort to examine when, why, and how presidents talk about the economy, as well as whether the president's economic rhetoric matters. It demonstrates conclusively that such presidential words do matter. Using an unprecedented compendium of every known unique statement by U.S. presidents about the economy from World War II through the first George W. Bush administration, Dan Wood measures the relative intensity and optimism of presidents' economic rhetoric. His pathbreaking statistical analysis shows that presidential words can affect everything from approval of the president's job performance to perceptions of economic news, consumer confidence, consumer behavior, business investment, and interest rates. The impacts are both immediate and gradual. Ultimately, Wood concludes, rhetoric is indeed a tool of presidential leadership that can be used unilaterally to affect a range of political and economic outcomes.
Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations written by Luigi Curini and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 1861 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations offers a comprehensive overview of research processes in social science — from the ideation and design of research projects, through the construction of theoretical arguments, to conceptualization, measurement, & data collection, and quantitative & qualitative empirical analysis — exposited through 65 major new contributions from leading international methodologists. Each chapter surveys, builds upon, and extends the modern state of the art in its area. Following through its six-part organization, undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and practicing academics will be guided through the design, methods, and analysis of issues in Political Science and International Relations: Part One: Formulating Good Research Questions & Designing Good Research Projects Part Two: Methods of Theoretical Argumentation Part Three: Conceptualization & Measurement Part Four: Large-Scale Data Collection & Representation Methods Part Five: Quantitative-Empirical Methods Part Six: Qualitative & "Mixed" Methods
Download or read book Capitalism and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe written by Grzegorz Ekiert and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-09-15 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a shared effort to apply a general historical-institutionalist approach to the problem of assessing institutional change in the wake of communism's collapse in Europe. It brings together a number of leading senior and junior scholars with outstanding reputations as specialists in postcommunism and comparative politics to address central theoretical and empirical issues involved in the study of postcommunism. The authors address such questions as how historical 'legacies' of the communist regime be defined, how their impact can be measured in methodologically rigorous ways, and how the effects of temporal and spatial context can be taken into account in empirical research on the region. Taken as a whole, the volume makes an important contribution to the growing literature by utilizing the comparative historical method to study key problems of world politics.
Download or read book The 1969 Economic Report of the President written by United States. President and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 1230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade Murky Protectionism and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Download or read book The Politics of Economic Leadership written by B. Dan Wood and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2007-09-02 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book shows why Dan Wood is a scholar of extraordinary renown with a reputation for skillfully implementing cutting-edge quantitative methodologies into his research on a wide array of topics. His efforts to measure the intensity and tone of presidential rhetoric about the economy are impressive in terms of both imagination and ambition."--Paul Brace, Rice University "Written with admirable clarity and crispness, this book makes a strong case that presidential rhetoric on the economy matters a good deal. Among its notable strengths is the vast empirical base of the research. By drawing on an unusually broad collection of data, the book offers a more representative view of the subject than previous work."--Stephen Weatherford, University of California, Santa Barbara
Download or read book Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 1997 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers trends from 1957 to 1995.
Download or read book Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress written by United States. President and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Represents the annual report of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. Appendix B contains historical tables (from 1959 or earlier) on aspects of income (national, personal, and corporate), production, prices, employment, investment, taxes and transfers, and money and finance.
Download or read book An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change written by Richard R. Nelson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1985-10-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the most sustained and serious attack on mainstream, neoclassical economics in more than forty years. Nelson and Winter focus their critique on the basic question of how firms and industries change overtime. They marshal significant objections to the fundamental neoclassical assumptions of profit maximization and market equilibrium, which they find ineffective in the analysis of technological innovation and the dynamics of competition among firms. To replace these assumptions, they borrow from biology the concept of natural selection to construct a precise and detailed evolutionary theory of business behavior. They grant that films are motivated by profit and engage in search for ways of improving profits, but they do not consider them to be profit maximizing. Likewise, they emphasize the tendency for the more profitable firms to drive the less profitable ones out of business, but they do not focus their analysis on hypothetical states of industry equilibrium. The results of their new paradigm and analytical framework are impressive. Not only have they been able to develop more coherent and powerful models of competitive firm dynamics under conditions of growth and technological change, but their approach is compatible with findings in psychology and other social sciences. Finally, their work has important implications for welfare economics and for government policy toward industry.
Download or read book Partisan Politics Divided Government and the Economy written by Alberto Alesina and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-01-27 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops an integrated approach to understanding the American economy and national elections. Economic policy is generally seen as the result of a compromise between the President and Congress. Because Democrats and Republicans usually maintain polarized preferences on policy, middle-of-the-road voters seek to balance the President by reinforcing in Congress the party not holding the White House. This balancing leads, always, to relatively moderate policies and, frequently, to divided government. The authors first outline the rational partisan business cycle, where Republican administrations begin with recession, and Democratic administrations with expansions, and next the midterm cycle, where the President's party loses votes in the mid-term congressional election. The book argues that both cycles are the result of uncertainty about the outcome of presidential elections. Other topics covered include retrospective voting on the economy, coat-tails, and incumbency advantage. A final chapter shows how the analysis sheds light on the economies and political processes of other industrial democracies.
Download or read book Presidential Economics written by Herbert Stein and published by American Enterprise Institute Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With rare wit and lucidity, Herbert Stein examines the events, policies, and personalities that have shaped the American economy for a half-century. Copyright © Libri GmbH. All rights reserved.
Download or read book Comparative Constitutional Law written by Tom Ginsburg and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 681 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This landmark volume of specially commissioned, original contributions by top international scholars organizes the issues and controversies of the rich and rapidly maturing field of comparative constitutional law. Divided into sections on constitutional design and redesign, identity, structure, individual rights and state duties, courts and constitutional interpretation, this comprehensive volume covers over 100 countries as well as a range of approaches to the boundaries of constitutional law. While some chapters reference the text of legal instruments expressly labeled constitutional, others focus on the idea of entrenchment or take a more functional approach. Challenging the current boundaries of the field, the contributors offer diverse perspectives - cultural, historical and institutional - as well as suggestions for future research. A unique and enlightening volume, Comparative Constitutional Law is an essential resource for students and scholars of the subject.
Download or read book Southern Economic Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
