Download or read book Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables are based on a large data set from Lithuania. The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.

Download or read book Weather Derivatives written by Antonis Alexandridis K. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals as part of a risk management strategy to minimize risk associated with adverse or unexpected weather conditions. Just as traditional contingent claims, a weather derivative has an underlying measure, such as: rainfall, wind, snow or temperature. Nearly $1 trillion of the U.S. economy is directly exposed to weather-related risk. More precisely, almost 30% of the U.S. economy and 70% of U.S. companies are affected by weather. The purpose of this monograph is to conduct an in-depth analysis of financial products that are traded in the weather market. Presenting a pricing and modeling approach for weather derivatives written on various underlying weather variables will help students, researchers, and industry professionals accurately price weather derivatives, and will provide strategies for effectively hedging against weather-related risk. This book will link the mathematical aspects of the modeling procedure of weather variables to the financial markets and the pricing of weather derivatives. Very little has been published in the area of weather risk, and this volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying financial mathematics, risk management, or energy finance, in addition to investors and professionals within the financial services industry. ​

Download or read book Temperature Models for Pricing Weather Derivatives written by Frank Schiller and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present four models for predicting temperatures that can be used for pricing weather derivatives. Three of the models have been suggested in prior literature, and we suggest another model which uses splines to remove trend and seasonality effects from temperature time series in a flexible way. Using historical temperature data from 35 weather stations across the United States, we test the performance of the models by evaluating virtual heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) contracts. We find that all models perform better when predicting HDD indices than predicting CDD indices. However, all models based on a daily simulation approach significantly underestimate the variance of the errors.

Download or read book Weather Derivative Valuation written by Stephen Jewson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-03-10 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 2005, Weather Derivative Valuation covers all the meteorological, statistical, financial and mathematical issues that arise in the pricing and risk management of weather derivatives. There are chapters on meteorological data and data cleaning, the modelling and pricing of single weather derivatives, the modelling and valuation of portfolios, the use of weather and seasonal forecasts in the pricing of weather derivatives, arbitrage pricing for weather derivatives, risk management, and the modelling of temperature, wind and precipitation. Specific issues covered in detail include the analysis of uncertainty in weather derivative pricing, time-series modelling of daily temperatures, the creation and use of probabilistic meteorological forecasts and the derivation of the weather derivative version of the Black-Scholes equation of mathematical finance. Written by consultants who work within the weather derivative industry, this book is packed with practical information and theoretical insight into the world of weather derivative pricing.

Download or read book The Pricing of Weather Derivatives including Meteorological Forecasts written by Elena Parmigiani and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-02-24 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 4/4, , language: English, abstract: 1. Abstract This paper analyses weather derivatives and the issue of pricing these financial instruments. The non-tradability of the underlying makes their pricing not straightforward and even if the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began trading the first weather contract in 1999, the market still witnesses very low volumes and is relatively illiquid. This theoretical analysis is focused on instruments whose underlying is temperature, since they are the most traded. Due to the assumption of informational efficient markets, all available information should theoretically be included in the prices. However most existing models focus only on historical observations of temperature, actually excluding some relevant information. The few models that have instead considered weather forecasts are analysed, and in particular the model introduced by Ritter, Musshoff, and Odening to price temperature monthly futures including weather forecasts is described in details. I’ve performed an analysis applying a simplified version of the model described, based on temperature data from Tampa, Florida, in 2007. The results show that models with meteorological forecasts indeed outperform models that ignore them.

Download or read book Modelling and Comparing Temperature Processes for Pricing Weather Derivatives written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather is an important factor for the economy and has a growing impact on businesses of many kinds. Companies that suffer serious losses in case of unfavorable weather are interested in hedging the weather risks. In this thesis weather derivatives are introduced which are a very useful instrument for hedging. Temperature based derivative contracts usually pay a compensation to the buyer if the temperature is unusually high or low on many days. This thesis focuses on such weather derivative contracts for agricultural enterprises in important regions of crop cultivating in the United States. The main aim is the pricing of these contracts. Since temperature does not follow a simple stochastic process, several complex Monte Carlo models for simulating temperature are calculated and discussed. Especially, the impacts of mean-reverting, autoregressive, variability, and jump component elements will be investigated. The simulation results will be compared with historical data and with recent reference data for analyzing how the contracts would have performed in later years. It will be shown how important it is to choose an appropriate model. Thereafter, methods for finding fair prices and the importance of the market price of risk are considered.

Download or read book Pricing Weather Derivative written by Melanie Cao and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes and implements an equilibrium framework for valuing weather derivatives. We generalize the Lucas model of 1978 to include the daily temperature as a fundamental variable in the economy. Temperature behavior in the past twenty years is closely studied for five major cities in the U.S., and a model is then proposed for the daily temperature variable which incorporates all the key properties of temperature behavior including seasonal cycles and uneven variations throughout the year. The model system is then estimated using the 20-year data and numerical analysis is subsequently performed for forward and option contracts on HDD's and CDD's. Key advantages of our model include the use of weather forecasts as inputs and the ability to handle contracts of any maturity, for any season. Numerical analysis shows that within our framework, the market price of risk associated with the temperature variable does not appear to impact the weather derivatives' value in a significant way, which implies it is indeed justifiable to use the riskfree rate to derive weather derivatives' values as many practitioners do in the industry. Finally, we show that the so-called historical simulation method can lead to significant pricing errors due to its erroneous implicit assumptions.

Download or read book Pricing of Weather Derivatives written by Anandadeep Mandal and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2010-12 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The performance of many firms are exposed to the changes in weather. The industry sectors exposed to 'weather risk' are basic materials, consumer durables and agricultural industries. Amongst these the basic materials has mainly triggered the demand for the weather derivatives market and the rapid growth in the weather risk assessment industry. With this as the backdrop, this book formulates a pricing model for the weather derivatives, whose payoffs depend on surface air temperature. Daily temperature data for the last thirty years is closely analyzed for four cities in U.K. to model a temperature process which captures the daily temperature fluctuations including the seasonal patterns and the year-on- year up-ward trend behaviour of the temperature.This work further evaluates an arbitrage-free option pricing using a Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Keeping in mind that temperature, the underlying variable of the weather derivative, is non-tradable we consider a risk premium estimator to find the price of a weather derivatives contract. Further, the book provides results based on these models as well as based on Monte Carlo Simulations.

Download or read book Simulating Security Returns written by Giovanni Barone Adesi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practitioners in risk management are familiar with the use of the FHS (filtered historical simulation) to finding realistic simulations of security returns. This approach has become increasingly popular over the last fifteen years, as it is both flexible and reliable, and is now being accepted in the academic community. Simulating Security Returns is a useful guide for researchers, students, and practitioners. It uses the FHS approach to help simulate the returns of large portfolios of securities. While other simulation methods use the covariance matrix of security returns, which suffers the curse of dimensionality even for modest portfolios, Barone Adesi demonstrates how FHS can accurately adjust to current market conditions.

Download or read book Pricing of Weather Derivatives written by Shih-Ying Lee and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hot or Cold written by Teddy Oetomo and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The article reviews six different temperature forecasting models propsoed by the prior literature for pricing weather derivatives. Simulation of these models is used to estimate daily temperature and, as a consequence, the metrics used for pricing temperature derivatives. The models that rely on an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process exhibit a better goodness-of-fit than those that are established under Monte Carlo simulations. However, the superiority of ARMA-type models is not reflected over the forecast horizon. Over that period, the models which rely on Monte Carlo simulations exhibit a tendency to over-forecast the monthly accumulated Heating Degree Day (AccHDD) index and to under-forecast the monthly-accumulated Cooling Degree Day (AccCDD) index. Alternatively, models established under the ARMA approach both under-forecast and over-forecast the monthly accumulated indices. All models consistently over-forecast the average daily temperature. The most appropriate pricing model varies between cities and months. Finally, the models examined in this study generate a more accurate AccHDD futures price than the traded price on the market. However, the ability of these models to estimate the AccCDD futures price is significantly poorer than that of the market.

Download or read book Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management written by Kathrin Glau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-09 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling, multiple-curve interest rate-models, and model risk are addressed. Finally, regulatory developments and possible limits of mathematical modeling are discussed.

Download or read book Wavelet Neural Networks written by Antonios K. Alexandridis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A step-by-step introduction to modeling, training, and forecasting using wavelet networks Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification presents the statistical model identification framework that is needed to successfully apply wavelet networks as well as extensive comparisons of alternate methods. Providing a concise and rigorous treatment for constructing optimal wavelet networks, the book links mathematical aspects of wavelet network construction to statistical modeling and forecasting applications in areas such as finance, chaos, and classification. The authors ensure that readers obtain a complete understanding of model identification by providing in-depth coverage of both model selection and variable significance testing. Featuring an accessible approach with introductory coverage of the basic principles of wavelet analysis, Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification also includes: • Methods that can be easily implemented or adapted by researchers, academics, and professionals in identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems and artificial intelligence • Multiple examples and thoroughly explained procedures with numerous applications ranging from financial modeling and financial engineering, time series prediction and construction of confidence and prediction intervals, and classification and chaotic time series prediction • An extensive introduction to neural networks that begins with regression models and builds to more complex frameworks • Coverage of both the variable selection algorithm and the model selection algorithm for wavelet networks in addition to methods for constructing confidence and prediction intervals Ideal as a textbook for MBA and graduate-level courses in applied neural network modeling, artificial intelligence, advanced data analysis, time series, and forecasting in financial engineering, the book is also useful as a supplement for courses in informatics, identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems, and computational finance. In addition, the book serves as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of mathematical modeling, engineering, artificial intelligence, decision science, neural networks, and finance and economics.

Download or read book Weather Derivative Pricing and the Year Ahead Forecasting of Temperature Part 2 written by Stephen Jewson and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In part 1 of this article we showed results from the backtesting of different year ahead forecasting methods for US temperatures. We now attempt to explain some of the features of those results using a simple model and simulations of artificial data.

Download or read book The Weather Derivatives Market Modelling and Pricing Temperature written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main objective of the thesis is to find a pricing model for weather derivatives based on temperature. A general Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with seasonal mean and volatility is proposed to model the time-dynamics of daily average temperatures. The model is fitted to almost 54 years of daily observations recorded in Chicago, Philadelphia, Portland and Tucson. The unequivocal evidence of fat tails and negative skewness observed for the city of Tucson is modelled by introducing Lèvy processes. Since weather derivatives is an incomplete market, unique prices are derived using the market price of risk. Finally, an estimate of the market price of risk is provided by calibrating theoretical prices to the actual quoted market prices.

Download or read book Indifference Pricing written by René Carmona and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-01-18 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book about the emerging field of utility indifference pricing for valuing derivatives in incomplete markets. René Carmona brings together a who's who of leading experts in the field to provide the definitive introduction for students, scholars, and researchers. Until recently, financial mathematicians and engineers developed pricing and hedging procedures that assumed complete markets. But markets are generally incomplete, and it may be impossible to hedge against all sources of randomness. Indifference Pricing offers cutting-edge procedures developed under more realistic market assumptions. The book begins by introducing the concept of indifference pricing in the simplest possible models of discrete time and finite state spaces where duality theory can be exploited readily. It moves into a more technical discussion of utility indifference pricing for diffusion models, and then addresses problems of optimal design of derivatives by extending the indifference pricing paradigm beyond the realm of utility functions into the realm of dynamic risk measures. Focus then turns to the applications, including portfolio optimization, the pricing of defaultable securities, and weather and commodity derivatives. The book features original mathematical results and an extensive bibliography and indexes. In addition to the editor, the contributors are Pauline Barrieu, Tomasz R. Bielecki, Nicole El Karoui, Robert J. Elliott, Said Hamadène, Vicky Henderson, David Hobson, Aytac Ilhan, Monique Jeanblanc, Mattias Jonsson, Anis Matoussi, Marek Musiela, Ronnie Sircar, John van der Hoek, and Thaleia Zariphopoulou. The first book on utility indifference pricing Explains the fundamentals of indifference pricing, from simple models to the most technical ones Goes beyond utility functions to analyze optimal risk transfer and the theory of dynamic risk measures Covers non-Markovian and partially observed models and applications to portfolio optimization, defaultable securities, static and quadratic hedging, weather derivatives, and commodities Includes extensive bibliography and indexes Provides essential reading for PhD students, researchers, and professionals

Download or read book Memory Time Varying Models for Weather Derivative Pricing written by Massimiliano Caporin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a generalisation of the double long memory ARFIMA-FIGARCH model introducing time-varying memory coefficients for both mean and variance. The model satisfies the empirical evidence of changing memory observed in average temperature series and can provide useful improvements in the forecasting, simulation and pricing issues related to weather derivatives. We provide an application related to the forecast and simulation of temperature indices used for pricing of weather options.