Download or read book Technological Forecasting for Decision Making written by Joseph Paul Martino and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1983 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Research and Development Management written by Tugrul Daim and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-23 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces readers to essential technology assessment and forecasting tools, demonstrating their use on the basis of multiple cases. As organizations in the high-tech industry need to be able to assess emerging technologies, the book presents cases in which formal decision-making models are developed, providing a framework for decision-making in the context of technology acquisition and development. Applications of different technology forecasting tools are also discussed for a range of technologies and sectors, providing a guide to keep R&D organizations abreast of technological trends that affect their business. As such, the book offers a valuable the theoretical and practical reference guide for R&D managers responsible for emerging and future technologies.
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Download or read book Forecasting and Management of Technology written by Alan L. Porter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-12 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for. Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.
Download or read book Forecasting and Management of Technology written by Alan L. Porter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1991 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book Technological Forecasting for Decision Making written by Joseph Paul Martino and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1983 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking written by Joseph Paul Martino and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The International Handbook on Innovation written by Larisa V Shavinina and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-10-16 with total page 1201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Approx.1200 pagesApprox.1200 pages
Download or read book Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker written by Dr Theodore Modis and published by Growth Dynamics. This book was released on 2013-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a How-to book concerning the application of natural laws in the world of business. The first part of the book, Theory and Practice, presents the theory behind the natural laws considered and illustrates how they can be applied in real-life situations. The second part, Methods and Tools, demonstrates how to proceed in general with a customer engagement from the very beginning. Detail technical advice is given on how to fit S curves and how to employ the Volterra-Lotka equations using EXCEL. All along case studies illustrate the approach describing real engagements. For the science-friendly reader the Appendix includes rigorous mathematical formulations for the natural laws invoked in Part I and for the Excel-based curve-fitting procedures described in Part II.
Download or read book Untangling Smart Cities written by Luca Mora and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-04 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Untangling Smart Cities: From Utopian Dreams to Innovation Systems for a Technology-Enabled Urban Sustainability helps all key stakeholders understand the complex and often conflicting nature of smart city research, offering valuable insights for designing and implementing strategies to improve the smart city decision-making processes. The book drives the reader to a better theoretical and practical comprehension of smart city development, beginning with a thorough and systematic analysis of the research literature published to date. It addition, it provides an in-depth understanding of the entire smart city knowledge domain, revealing a deeply rooted division in its cognitive-epistemological structure as identified by bibliometric insights. Users will find a book that fills the knowledge gap between theory and practice using case study research and empirical evidence drawn from cities considered leaders in innovative smart city practices.
Download or read book Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process written by Thomas L. Saaty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-14 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Analytic Network Process (ANP), developed by Thomas Saaty in his work on multicriteria decision making, applies network structures with dependence and feedback to complex decision making. This new edition of Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process is a selection of the latest applications of ANP to economic, social and political decisions, and also to technological design. The ANP is a methodological tool that is helpful to organize knowledge and thinking, elicit judgments registered in both in memory and in feelings, quantify the judgments and derive priorities from them, and finally synthesize these diverse priorities into a single mathematically and logically justifiable overall outcome. In the process of deriving this outcome, the ANP also allows for the representation and synthesis of diverse opinions in the midst of discussion and debate. The book focuses on the application of the ANP in three different areas: economics, the social sciences and the linking of measurement with human values. Economists can use the ANP for an alternate approach for dealing with economic problems than the usual mathematical models on which economics bases its quantitative thinking. For psychologists, sociologists and political scientists, the ANP offers the methodology they have sought for some time to quantify and derive measurements for intangibles. Finally the book applies the ANP to provide people in the physical and engineering sciences with a quantitative method to link hard measurement to human values. In such a process, one is able to interpret the true meaning of measurements made on a uniform scale using a unit.
Download or read book Predictocracy written by Michael Abramowicz and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Download or read book Forecasting Fundamentals written by Nada Sanders and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Download or read book Technological Forecasting in Perspective written by Erich Jantsch and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
