Download or read book Taylor Rules and the Euro written by Tanya Molodtsova and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses real-time data to show that inflation and either the output gap or unemployment, the variables which normally enter central banks' Taylor rules for interest-rate-setting, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability and forecasting ability for the United States Dollar/Euro exchange rate from the inception of the Euro in 1999 to the end of 2007. We also present less formal evidence that, with real-time data, the Taylor rule provides a better description of ECB than of Fed policy during this period. The strongest evidence is found for specifications that neither incorporate interest rate smoothing nor include the real exchange rate in the forecasting regression, and the results are robust to whether or not the coefficients on inflation and the real economic activity measure are constrained to be the same for the U.S. and the Euro Area. The evidence is stronger with inflation forecasts than with inflation rates and with real-time data than with revised data. Bad news about inflation and good news about real economic activity both lead to out-of-sample predictability and forecasting ability through forecasted exchange rate appreciation.
Download or read book Taylor Rules for the Euro Area written by Dieter Gerdesmeier and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Taylor Rules for the Euro Area written by Dieter Gerdesmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, a number of studies have made an attempt to deal with the key issue of the incompleteness of information available to the central bank when taking its monetary policy decisions. This study adds to this literature by tackling the problem with regard to the euro area. The analysis is based on the simplistic assumption of the central bank following a simple monetary policy rule ?-la-Taylor. Along the lines of work suggested by Orphanides, the study tries to assess whether estimates of reaction functions which are carried out using revised data for the euro area can convey a misleading message in terms of policy recommendations.
Download or read book Monetary Policy in the Euro Area a Country by Country Look at the Effectiveness of the Taylor Rule written by Sean T. Neighbors and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to use different Taylor rules in analyzing the interest rate for the Euro Area. The Euro Area was chosen because it consists of all the countries that use the Euro. The European Central Bank also behaves with the national banks in much the same as manner as the US Federal Reserve Bank system. The Taylor rule is used because the main objective of the Euro Area is price stability. Two different Taylor rules are used in this paper: simple Taylor rule, and dynamic Taylor rule. Each Taylor rule is also broken down to include the individual country coefficients. This allows for the effect each country has on the Euro Area's monetary policy to be determined.
Download or read book The Taylor Rule Applied to the Euro Area written by Patricia Jansen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Taylor Rule for the Euro Area Based on Quasi real Time Data written by Yvonne Adema and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Download or read book Interest Rate Reaction Functions and the Taylor Rule in the Euro Area written by Petra Gerlach-Kristen and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Economics written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Download or read book Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the Euro Area written by Efrem Castelnuovo and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom suggests that central banks implement monetary policy in a gradual fashion. Some researchers claim that this gradualism is due to 'optimal cautiousness'; in contrast, Rudebusch (Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49 (2002), pp. 1161-1187) states that the observed policy rate sluggishness is mainly due to serially correlated exogenous shocks. In this paper we use models in first differences to assess the 'endogenous' versus 'exogenous' gradualism hypothesis for the Euro area. Our results suggest that the joint formalization of the two hypotheses is likely to offer the best simple approximation of the Euro area monetary policy conduct.
Download or read book Can the Predictability of Interest Rates Using Taylor type Rules for the European Central Bank be Improved by Considering the EU 15 Countries Denmark the United Kingdom and Sweden written by Fabian Wochele and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European Central Bank is responsible for the monetary policy in Euroland. This currency area is a part of a larger market - the EU. Restricting the view to the EU-15, the latter consists of 15 governments, four currencies and one market. A question arising from these facts is if the European Central Bank is influenced only by the Euro Area or if it considers the European market (EU-15) as a whole. Based on the Taylor rule, this thesis examines if data of all EU-15 countries or the interest rates of Sweden and the United Kingdom help to predict the European short term interest rate. Four models are employed, i.e. all combinations of forward-looking vs. contemporaneous rules as well as real time vs. final data models. The estimation methods used are least squares, generalized method of moments and cointegration techniques. Results give some support of better predictability of the European interest rate by including the interest rates of Sweden and the UK into the Taylor rule, although evidence is weak. The case using all EU-15 countries doesn't improve forecasting ability of the Taylor rule. However, it seems as in general the Taylor rule helps in predicting the EONIA.
Download or read book Taylor Rule for EU 11 Indications for the Future Euro Rate written by R. Dozio and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area written by Stefan Gerlach and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deals with the establishment of European Monetary Union (EMU) that raises important questions regarding how the European Central Bank (ECB) should conduct monetary policy.
Download or read book Taylor Rules for the ECB Using Expectations Data written by Janko Gorter and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero.
Download or read book Standard Taylor Rules Revisited written by Sabine Eschenhof-Kammer and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Otmar Issing and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-26 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.
Download or read book Taylor rule Consistent Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the natural rate of interest for the US and the euro area in a semi-structural model comprising a Taylor rule. Our estimates feature key elements of Laubach and Williams (2003), but are more consistent with using conventional policy rules: we model inflation to be stationary, with the output gap pinning down deviations of inflation from its objective (rather than relative to a random walk). We relax some constraints on the correlation of latent factor shocks to make the original unobserved-components framework more amenable to structural interpretation and to reduce filtering uncertainty. We show that resulting natural rate metrics are more consistent with estimates from structural models.
