Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press Journals. This book was released on 2018-05-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 32 of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features six theoretical and empirical studies of important issues in contemporary macroeconomics, and a keynote address by former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. In one study, SeHyoun Ahn, Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Thomas Winberry, and Christian Wolf examine the dynamics of consumption expenditures in non-representative-agent macroeconomic models. In another, John Cochrane asks which macro models most naturally explain the post-financial-crisis macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by the co-existence of low and nonvolatile inflation rates, near-zero short-term interest rates, and an explosion in monetary aggregates. Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino examine the causes of the lending boom that precipitated the recent U.S. financial crisis and Great Recession. Steven Durlauf and Ananth Seshadri investigate whether increases in income inequality cause lower levels of economic mobility and opportunity. Charles Manski explores the formation of expectations, considering the efficacy of directly measuring beliefs through surveys as an alternative to making the assumption of rational expectations. In the final research paper, Efraim Benmelech and Nittai Bergman analyze the sharp declines in debt issuance and the evaporation of market liquidity that coincide with most financial crises. Blanchard’s keynote address discusses which distortions are central to understanding short-run macroeconomic fluctuations.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Elicitation of Preferences written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.

Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-13 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As one of the first texts to take a behavioral approach to macroeconomic expectations, this book introduces a new way of doing economics. Rötheli uses cognitive psychology in a bottom-up method of modeling macroeconomic expectations. His research is based on laboratory experiments and historical data, which he extends to real-world situations. Pattern extrapolation is shown to be the key to understanding expectations of inflation and income. The quantitative model of expectations is used to analyze the course of inflation and nominal interest rates in a range of countries and historical periods. The model of expected income is applied to the analysis of business cycle phenomena such as the great recession in the United States. Data and spreadsheets are provided for readers to do their own computations of macroeconomic expectations. This book offers new perspectives in many areas of macro and financial economics.

Download or read book Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics written by Tobias Henschen and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks and other policymaking institutions use causal hypotheses to justify macroeconomic policy decisions to the public and public institutions. These hypotheses say that changes in one macroeconomic aggregate (e.g. aggregate demand) cause changes in other macroeconomic aggregates (e.g. in inflation). An important (perhaps the most important) goal of macroeconomists is to provide conclusive evidence in support of these hypotheses. If they cannot provide any conclusive evidence, then policymaking institutions will be unable to use causal hypotheses to justify policy decisions, and then the scientific objectivity of macroeconomic policy analysis will be questionable. The book analyzes the accounts of causality that have been or can be proposed to capture the type of causality that underlies macroeconomic policy analysis, the empirical methods of causal inference that contemporary macroeconomists have at their disposal, and the conceptions of scientific objectivity that traditionally play a role in economics. The book argues that contemporary macroeconomists cannot provide any conclusive evidence in support of causal hypotheses, and that macroeconomic policy analysis doesn’t qualify as scientifically objective in any of the traditional meanings. The book also considers a number of steps that might have to be taken in order for macroeconomic policy analysis to become more objective. The book addresses philosophers of science and economics as well as (macro-) economists, econometricians and statisticians who are interested in causality and macro-econometric methods of causal inference and their wider philosophical and social context.

Download or read book Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-03-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.

Download or read book Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2017-03-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys provides best practices and harmonized principles on how to conduct economic tendency survey from sample selection, questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution, to data processing and dissemination. It also provides examples of uses of these surveys, for example, for composite tendency indicators. These surveys provide qualitative information that cannot be collected using other quantitative statistical methods. They also serve as an integral part of an early warning system because they provide information about the occurrence and timing of upturns and downturns of the economy.

Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.

Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality written by Riccardo Viale and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 681 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics Foundations and Applications 1 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 749 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Applications presents the concepts and tools of behavioral economics. Its authors are all economists who share a belief that the objective of behavioral economics is to enrich, rather than to destroy or replace, standard economics. They provide authoritative perspectives on the value to economic inquiry of insights gained from psychology. Specific chapters in this first volume cover reference-dependent preferences, asset markets, household finance, corporate finance, public economics, industrial organization, and structural behavioural economics. This Handbook provides authoritative summaries by experts in respective subfields regarding where behavioral economics has been; what it has so far accomplished; and its promise for the future. This taking-stock is just what Behavioral Economics needs at this stage of its so-far successful career. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent, rapid changes in theoretical and empirical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics

Download or read book Macroeconomic Survey Expectations written by Michael P. Clements and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.

Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics Foundations and Applications 2 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Volume 2, Foundations and Applications offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within behavioral economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of the conceptual foundations underlying behavioral economics is written by, and for, economists, with chapters covering Intertemporal choice, Reference-dependent preferences, Beliefs, Cognition, Social preferences, Behavioral game theory, Welfare, and Neuroeconomics. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent rapid changes in theoretical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics

Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-28 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Download or read book Managing Risk in Agriculture written by Ashok K. Mishra and published by CABI. This book was released on 2023-10-02 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book addresses and documents farmers' risks in developing and emerging economies. It draws lessons from experimental economics on measuring risk preferences, attitudes, gender differences in managing risks, and risk management strategies in countries across Africa and Asia. It argues policy makers, especially in emerging economies, need a better understanding of farmers' attitudes toward risk and choices of risk management strategies when designing policies to support production agriculture. The book includes chapters on three themes: understanding risk attitudes and preferences; using experimental economics to measure risk, preferences, and risk management strategies; and understanding climate change, risk, and risk management. The book critically examines the currently held beliefs about risk preference, attitudes, and empirical estimation of risk management strategies, emphasizing developing and emerging economies (DEE). This book is ideal for students and researchers in universities and research organizations who conduct applied research on public policy, community development, and rural development, and will also be of interest to policy-makers in those fields.

Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.