Download or read book Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis written by Lionel A. Galway and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.

Download or read book Engineering Economics of Life Cycle Cost Analysis written by John Vail Farr and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-06-30 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of the information age and the digital economy has dramatically changed engineering and other technology-driven fields. With tremendous advances in computing and communication systems, major organizational upheavals, all fueled by complexity, globalization, short cycle times, and lean supply chains, the functions of engineers have significantly changed. Engineers and similar professionals must be technically savvy and have product management and costing skills all while working in a distributed and often unstable environment. This new-edition textbook is updated to cover the integration of cost, risk, value, scheduling, and informationtechnologies going beyond basic engineering economics. Engineering Economics of Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Second Edition, offers a systems and life cycle or total ownership cost perspective. It presents advanced costing techniques such as simulation-based costing, decision and risk analysis, complex systemscosting, software, big data, and cloud computing estimation. Examples and problems demonstrating these techniques with real-world applications are also included. All engineers and similar professionals will find this book useful, but it is mainly written for systems engineers, engineering managers, program/product managers, and industrial engineers. The text can serve as a professional reference or for use with graduate courses on advanced engineering economic analysis and cost management, and financial analysis for engineers.

Download or read book Brick and Block Masonry written by Claudio Modena and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-11-03 with total page 2558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brick and Block Masonry - Trends, Innovations and Challenges contains the lectures and regular papers presented at the 16th International Brick and Block Masonry Conference (Padova, Italy, 26-30 June 2016). In an ever-changing world, in which innovations are rapidly implemented but soon surpassed, the challenge for masonry, the oldest and most traditional building material, is that it can address the increasingly pressing requirements of quality of living, safety, and sustainability. This abstracts volume and full paper USB device, focusing on challenges, innovations, trends and ideas related to masonry, in both research and building practice, will proof to be a valuable source of information for researchers and practitioners, masonry industries and building management authorities, construction professionals and educators.

Download or read book Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management written by Patrick J. Driscoll and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-10-25 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DECISION MAKING IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT A thoroughly updated overview of systems engineering management and decision making In the newly revised third edition of Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management, the authors deliver a comprehensive and authoritative overview of the systems decision process, systems thinking, and qualitative and quantitative multi-criteria value modeling directly supporting decision making throughout the system lifecycle. This book offers readers major new updates that cover recently developed system modeling and analysis techniques and quantitative and qualitative approaches in the field, including effective techniques for addressing uncertainty. In addition to Excel, six new open-source software applications have been added to illustrate key topics, including SIPmath Modeler Tools, Cambridge Advanced Modeller, SystemiTool2.0, and Gephi 0.9.2. The authors have reshaped the book’s organization and presentation to better support educators engaged in remote learning. New appendices have been added to present extensions for a new realization analysis technique and getting started steps for each of the major software applications. Updated illustrative examples support modern system decision making skills and highlight applications in hardware, organizations, policy, logistic supply chains, and architecture. Readers will also find: Thorough introductions to working with systems, the systems engineering perspective, and systems thinking In-depth presentations of applied systems thinking, including holism, element dependencies, expansive and contractive thinking, and concepts of structure, classification, and boundaries Comprehensive explorations of system representations leading to analysis In-depth discussions of supporting system decisions, including the system decision process (SDP), tradespace methods, multi-criteria value modeling, working with stakeholders, and the system environment Perfect for undergraduate and graduate students studying systems engineering and systems engineering management, Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management will also earn a place in the libraries of practicing system engineers and researchers with an interest in the topic.

Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Download or read book Cognitive Dependability Engineering written by Lech Bukowski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-07-17 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The work is a context-oriented analysis and synthesis of complex engineered systems to ensure continuous and safe operations under conditions of uncertainty. The book is divided in four parts, the first one comprises an overview of the development of systems engineering: starting with basics of Systems Science and Single Systems Engineering, through System of Systems Engineering to Cognitive Systems Engineering. The Cognitive Systems Engineering model was based on the concept of imperfect knowledge acquisition and management. The second part shows the evolutionary character of the dependability concept over the last fifty years. Beginning from simple models based on the classical probability theory, through the concepts of tolerating faults, as well as resilience engineering, we come to the assumptions of Cognitive Dependability Engineering (CDE), based on the concept of continuous smart operation, both under normal and abnormal conditions. The subject of the next part is analysis and synthesis of Cyber-Physical-Social (CPS) Systems. The methodology consists of the following steps: modeling CPS systems' structure, simulating their behavior in changing conditions and in situations of disruptions, and finally assessing the dependability of the entire system based on CDE. The last part of the work answers the question of how to deal with risks in CPS systems in situations of high level of uncertainty. The concept of a Cognitive Digital Twin was introduced to support the process of solving complex problems by experts, and on this basis a framework for cognitive dependability based problemsolving in CPS Systems operating under deep uncertainty was developed. The possibilities and purposefulness of using this framework have been demonstrated with three practical examples of disasters that have happened in the past and have been thoroughly analyzed.

Download or read book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-01-03 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case studies, results, observations, and interpretations that clarify the challenges in cost risk analysis. It includes references, equations, and illustrations, provides theoretical and applied exercises, and uses examples and case discussions derived from systems engineering projects to describe key concepts.

Download or read book Adversarial Risk Analysis written by David L. Banks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against

Download or read book Degrees of Belief written by Steven G. Vick and published by ASCE Publications. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts

Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-07-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. - Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis - Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty - Website presents application exercises in Excel

Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-06-26 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.

Download or read book Trusting Judgements written by Mark A. Burgman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.

Download or read book OECD Reviews of Regulatory Reform Risk and Regulatory Policy Improving the Governance of Risk written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2010-04-09 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication presents recent OECD papers on risk and regulatory policy. They offer measures for developing, or improving, coherent risk governance policies.

Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis written by Tim Bedford and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.

Download or read book Managing Construction Projects written by Graham M. Winch and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-11-20 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project management is of critical importance in construction, yetits execution poses major challenges. In order to keep a project ontrack, decisions often have to be made before all the necessaryinformation is available. Drawing on a wide range of research, Managing ConstructionProjects proposes new ways of thinking about project managementin construction, exploring the skills required to manageuncertainty and offering techniques for thinking about thechallenges involved. The second edition takes the informationprocessing perspective introduced in the first edition and developsit further. In particular, this approach deepens the reader’sunderstanding of the dynamics in the construction project process– from the value proposition inherent in the project mission,to the functioning asset that generates value for its owners andusers. Managing Construction Projects is a unique andindispensible contribution to the available literature onconstruction project management. It will be of particular benefitto advanced students of construction and construction projectmanagement, as well as contractors and quantity surveyors. Reviews of the First edition: "A massive review of the art and science of the management ofprojects that has the great virtue of being a good read wherever itis touched. It spills the dirt on things that went wrong,elucidates the history so you can understand the industry's currentstance, draws on other countries experience and explains the latestmanagement processes. Throughout it is liberally sprinkled withanecdotes and case histories which amply illustrate the dos anddon't for practitioners wishing to deliver projects on time toexpected quality and price. A valuable book for students andpractitioners alike." —John D Findlay, Director, Stent "This is a valuable source for practitioners and students. Itcovers the A-Z of project management in a confident contemporarymanner, and provides a powerful and much needed conceptualperspective in place of a purely prescriptive approach. Theengaging presentation introduces a range of challenges toestablished thinking about project management, often by makingcomparisons between practices in the UK and those of othercountries." —Peter Lansley, Professor of Construction Management,University of Reading "A refreshing and unique study of information management and itsimpact upon international construction project management.... Thebook is well presented and written, logical and succinct and isflexible enough to allow readers to either read from start tofinish or to dip into selected chapters. This book deserves to bean established text for any construction or civil engineering under- and/or postgraduate course." —CNBR, 25th November 2003 "Generous use is made of anecdotes andc case historiesthroughout to support the theory. the book illustrates the mistakesmade by others, and the means to deliver projects on time and tocost." —Building Services Journal, April 2004

Download or read book The Benefits and Costs of Highway and Transit Investments written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2005-09 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Impossible Certainty written by and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."