Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation with Regime switching in Asset Returns written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions Under Multivariate Regime Switching written by Massimo Guidolin and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation with Switching Dependence written by Donatien Hainaut and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the problem of the strategic asset allocation between stocks and bonds. The novelty of our approach is to model the influence of economic cycles on the marginal distributions of asset returns and their dependence structure by a single hidden Markov chain. After a brief review of selected statistical distributions (Student't and Weibull) and copulas (elliptic and Archimedian), we describe how the switching regime model is calibrated using two indices: the CAC 40 for stocks and the SGI Bond 10 years, for bonds. We then propose a dynamic investment policy based on the estimated probabilities of sojourn in each state of the Markov chain. Even though the Markov chain ruling the assets dynamics is hidden, a Bayesian procedure can be used to infer the probabilities of being in a certain state of the economy. The asset allocation can then adapted to provide the highest yield given the most likely state. Having calibrated and estimated the parameters of the model, the performance of static and dynamic strategies are compared by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that dynamic strategies, which exploit the additional information relating the probable regime state, perform better than static policies with a limited risk and an acceptable number of reallocations.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by Clarendon Lectures in Economic. This book was released on 2002 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a scientific foundation for the advice offered by financial planners to long-term investors. Based upon statistics on asset return behavior and assumed investor objectives, the authors derive optimal portfolio rules that investors can compare with existing rules of thumb.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation and Markov Regime Switch with GARCH Model written by Ph.D. Simi (Wei) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the financial crisis of 2008, the S&P 500 Implied Volatility Index (VIX), known as the “fear gauge”, jumped to 80% of the highest level it has ever reached. Portfolio managers faced tremendous pressures in these environments of such high levels market volatility. Because it is well known that asset allocation dominates portfolio performances, this paper focuses on asset allocation strategies. It develops a strategic asset allocation solution for portfolio management under all conditions and at all levels of market volatility. The approach is to derive a dynamic optimal portfolio that is based on the well-known asset allocation Black-Litterman [1991, 1992] framework. In addition, this paper proposes a methodology that considers the features of volatility regime-switching over time. This new strategic framework allows portfolio managers to derive a systematically optimal portfolio in a timely, accurate fashion.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation and International Capm written by Philipp Kowollik and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2004 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,3, European Business School - International University Schlo Reichartshausen Oestrich-Winkel, 28 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: The decision as to which Assets should be included in a portfolio is first addressed in a Strategic Asset Allocation policy. The determination of the Strategic Asset Allocation is one of the most important factors that influences a portfolio's performance. The process of defining a policy within the Strategic Asset Allocation should be done by both the portfolio manager and the potential investor. Together with the International Capital Asset Pricing Model the Strategic Asset Allocation tries to find an optimal portfolio which maximizes return and, at the same time, tries to minimize the possible risk. Due to currency and inflation risk, hedging should be considered as crucial point during the Strategic Asset Allocation. 1 2 Strategic Asset Allocation under consideration of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model decides to which asset classes a portfolio should be divided. Factors which determine the decision are expected returns, variances and covariances as well as the degree of risk aversion. The analysis of mean-variance which was mostly developed by Harry Markowitz gave portfolio advice until the early eighties concerning the optimal asset allocation. The aims of this approach were to minimize risk while receiving the highest possible return. Over the years the method was critized several times because of a lack of decisive factors. Markowitz only assumed a one period model and permanent income, currency and inflation risk were also ignored.3 Strategic Asset Allocation is much more than investing short- term. Investors care about inflation and currency risk. Hedging is particularly needed.

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data

Download or read book Empirical Analysis of Regime focused Asset Allocation Strategies Within a Markov Switching Framework written by Alan O'Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Adaptive Asset Allocation written by Adam Butler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-02 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build an agile, responsive portfolio with a new approach to global asset allocation Adaptive Asset Allocation is a no-nonsense how-to guide for dynamic portfolio management. Written by the team behind Gestaltu.com, this book walks you through a uniquely objective and unbiased investment philosophy and provides clear guidelines for execution. From foundational concepts and timing to forecasting and portfolio optimization, this book shares insightful perspective on portfolio adaptation that can improve any investment strategy. Accessible explanations of both classical and contemporary research support the methodologies presented, bolstered by the authors' own capstone case study showing the direct impact of this approach on the individual investor. Financial advisors are competing in an increasingly commoditized environment, with the added burden of two substantial bear markets in the last 15 years. This book presents a framework that addresses the major challenges both advisors and investors face, emphasizing the importance of an agile, globally-diversified portfolio. Drill down to the most important concepts in wealth management Optimize portfolio performance with careful timing of savings and withdrawals Forecast returns 80% more accurately than assuming long-term averages Adopt an investment framework for stability, growth, and maximum income An optimized portfolio must be structured in a way that allows quick response to changes in asset class risks and relationships, and the flexibility to continually adapt to market changes. To execute such an ambitious strategy, it is essential to have a strong grasp of foundational wealth management concepts, a reliable system of forecasting, and a clear understanding of the merits of individual investment methods. Adaptive Asset Allocation provides critical background information alongside a streamlined framework for improving portfolio performance.

Download or read book Asset Allocation Under Multivariate Regime Switching written by Allan Timmermann and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. We find evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states - are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset allocations vary considerably across these states and change over time as investors revise their estimates of the state probabilities. In the crash state, buy-and-hold investors allocate more of their portfolio to stocks the longer their investment horizon, while the optimal allocation to stocks declines as a function of the investment horizon in bull markets. The joint effects of learning about state probabilities and predictability of asset returns from the dividend yield give rise to a non-monotonic relationship between the investment horizon and the demand for stocks. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm the economic importance of accounting for the presence of regimes in asset returns.

Download or read book Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation written by Henrik Lumholdt and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers each step in the asset allocation process, addressing as many of the relevant questions as possible along the way. How can we formulate expectations about long-term returns? How relevant are valuations? What are the challenges to optimizing the portfolio? Can factor investing add value and, if so, how can it be implemented? Which are the key performance drivers for each asset class, and what determines how they are correlated? How can we apply insights about the business cycle to tactical asset allocation? The book is aimed at finance professionals and others looking for a coherent framework for decision-making in asset allocation, both at the strategic and tactical level. It stresses analysis rather than pre-conceived ideas about investments, and it draws on both empirical research and practical experience to give the reader as strong a background as possible.

Download or read book Asset Allocation with Markovian Regime Switching written by André Barbosa Oliveira and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation in Fixed Income Markets written by Ken Nyholm and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Matlab is used within nearly all investment banks and is a requirement in most quant job ads. There is no other book written for finance practitioners that covers this Enables readers to implement financial and econometric models in Matlab All central concepts and theories are illustrated by Matlab implementations which are accompanied by detailed descriptions of the programming steps needed All concepts and techniques are introduced from a basic level Chapter 1 introduces Matlab and matrix algebra, it serves to make the reader familiar with the use and basic capabilities if Matlab. The chapter concludes with a walkthrough of a linear regression model, showing how Matlab can be used to solve an example problem analytically and by the use of optimization and simulation techniques Chapter 2 introduces expected return and risk as central concepts in finance theory using fixed income instruments as examples, the chapter illustrates how risk measures such as standard deviation, Modified duration, VaR, and expected shortfall can be calculated empirically and in closed form Chapter 3 introduces the concept of diversification and illustrates how the efficient investment frontier can be derived - a Matlab is developed that can be used to calculate a given number of portfolios that lie on an efficient frontier, the chapter also introduces the CAPM Chapter 4 introduces econometric tools: principle component analysis is presented and used as a prelude to yield-curve factor models. The Nelson-Siegel model is used to introduce the Kalman-Filter as a way to add time-series dynamics to the evolution of yield curves over time, time series models such as Vector Autoregression and regime-switching are also presented Supported by a website with online resources - www.kennyholm.com where all Matlab programs referred to in the text can be downloaded. The site also contains lecture slides and answers to end of chapter exercises

Download or read book Asset Allocation Using Regime Switching Methods written by Sarthak Garg and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this thesis is to develop a Markov Regime Switching framework that can be used in asset allocation in conjunction with Modern Portfolio Theory. Modern Portfolio Theory has long been a popular tool among big financial institutions. However, one of its major limitations is assumption of stationary market volatility. In this paper, we develop a single period Mean Variance Optimization model that minimizes the variance of a portfolio subject to a specified expected return by combining Modern Portfolio Theory with a Markov Regime Switching framework. Then, we extend the above developed framework to be used in conjunction with a robust optimization framework as proposed by Goldfarb Iyengar in which regards we were partially successful. The portfolios constructed by the Markov Regime-Switching framework were tested out of sample to outperform those suggested by a Simple MVO One Factor model and the Robust MVO One Factor Model.

Download or read book Global Asset Allocation written by Heinz Zimmermann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-03 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reveals new methodologies for asset pricing within a global asset allocation framework. Contains cutting-edge empirical research on global markets and sectors of the global economy. Introduces the Black-Litterman model and how it can be used to improve global asset allocation decisions.

Download or read book International Asset Allocation Under Regime Switching Skew and Kurtosis Preferences written by Massimo Guidolin and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book International Asset Allocation Under Regime Switching Skew and Kurtosis Preferences written by Allan Timmermann and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving asset allocation problems in situations with a large number of risky assets which pose problems for standard approaches. Investor preferences are assumed to be defined over moments of the wealth distribution such as its mean, variance, skew and kurtosis. Time-variations in investment opportunities are represented by a flexible regime switching process. We develop analytical methods that only require solving a small set of difference equations and can be applied even in the presence of large numbers of risky assets. In the context of a four-moment international CAPM specification that relates stock returns in five regions to returns on a global market portfolio, we find evidence of distinct bull and bear states. Ignoring regimes, an unhedged US investor's optimal portfolio is strongly diversified internationally. The presence of regimes in the return distribution leads to a large increase in the investor's optimal holdings of US stocks as does the introduction of skew and kurtosis preferences. Our paper therefore offers an explanation of the strong home bias observed in US investors' asset allocation based on regime switching and skew and kurtosis preferences.