Download or read book Stochastic Risk Premiums Stochastic Skewness in Currency Options and Stochastic Discount Factors in International Economies written by Peter Carr and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop models of stochastic discount factors in international economies that produce stochastic risk premiums and stochastic skewness in currency options. We estimate the models using time-series returns and option prices on three currency pairs that form a triangular relation. Estimation shows that the average risk premium in Japan is larger than that in the US or the UK, the global risk premium is more persistent and volatile than the country-specific risk premiums, and investors respond differently to different shocks. We also identify high-frequency jumps in each economy, but find that only downside jumps are priced. Finally, our analysis shows that the risk premiums are economically compatible with movements in stock and bond market fundamentals.
Download or read book Stochastic Skewness and Index Option Returns written by Cai Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, many researchers focus on information contained in stochastic volatility dynamics, such as CBOE VIX index and its risk premium. However, there are relatively fewer studies on stochastic skewness dynamics. Simple linear regression indicates that stochastic volatility and stochastic skewness have different information about economic fundamentals: regressing CBOE VIX index on CBOE Skewness index, ranging from 1990 to 2013, yields R2 only 2%. Motivated by such striking yet simple empirical result and advances in reduced-form option pricing literature, we build one discrete-time equilibrium option pricing model with non-normal innovation. In our framework, market return skewness is driven by a stochastic process independent of volatility. Thus volatility and skewness dynamics possess different information about stochastic investment opportunity. Specifically, we use Variance Gamma distribution to generate economic growth shocks. Variance gamma innovation is able to be decomposed into two shocks, one of them is strictly positive, and the other is strictly negative. Our skewness risk factor controls the frequency and magnitude of these two shocks, therefore, controls the switching behavior of economic condition, e.g. from good to bad state. We show in our model that stochastic skewness risk should be priced, provided that investors have recursive utility function. Empirically, using Fama-Macbeth two pass regression and a panel of S&P 500 index option returns, we find that stochastic skewness has positive, statistically significant risk premium, and its sign does not change across our sample period. Moreover, our results show that skewness risk has superior explanation power for index option returns, compared with performance of volatility risk and Merton-type of jump risk. The shock of skewness risk premium is able to predict short-term market excess returns, the R2 is as high as 7%.
Download or read book Volatility Bounds for Stochastic Discount Factors written by Giorgio De Santis and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Model free International Stochastic Discount Factors written by Paula Mirela Sandulescu and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a theoretical characterization of international stochastic discount factors (SDFs) in incomplete markets under different degrees of market segmentation. Using 40 years of data on a cross-section of countries, we estimate model-free SDFs and factorize them into permanent and transitory components. We find that large permanent SDF components help to reconcile the low exchange rate volatility, the exchange rate cyclicality, and the forward premium anomaly. However, integrated markets entail highly volatile and almost perfectly comoving international SDFs. In contrast, segmented markets can generate less volatile and more dissimilar SDFs. In quest of relating the SDFs to economic fundamentals, we document strong links between proxies of financial intermediaries' risk-bearing capacity and model-free international SDFs. We interpret this evidence through the lens of an economy with two building blocks: limited participation by households and financiers who face an intermediation friction.
Download or read book Real Time Distribution of Stochastic Discount Factors written by Fousseni Chabi-Yo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I use option prices to infer real-time moments of stochastic discount factors (SDFs). The moments are estimated, from daily SP 500 index option data, in real time, without relying on past observations. These moments are forward-looking and significantly predict the market excess return. The theory suggests that the SDF variance (kurtosis) is positively priced while the SDF skewness is negatively priced in the cross section of returns. A cross-sectional analysis shows that the price of risks associated with the moments of the SDF are economically and statistically significant after controlling for a comprehensible set of economic variables.
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Finance written by Jin-Chuan Duan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any financial asset that is openly traded has a market price. Except for extreme market conditions, market price may be more or less than a “fair” value. Fair value is likely to be some complicated function of the current intrinsic value of tangible or intangible assets underlying the claim and our assessment of the characteristics of the underlying assets with respect to the expected rate of growth, future dividends, volatility, and other relevant market factors. Some of these factors that affect the price can be measured at the time of a transaction with reasonably high accuracy. Most factors, however, relate to expectations about the future and to subjective issues, such as current management, corporate policies and market environment, that could affect the future financial performance of the underlying assets. Models are thus needed to describe the stochastic factors and environment, and their implementations inevitably require computational finance tools.
Download or read book Stochastic Skew in Currency Options written by Peter Carr and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that the risk-neutral distribution of currency returns is relatively symmetric on average. However, on any given date, the conditional currency return distribution can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switch directions. We design and estimate a class of models that capture these unique features of the currency options prices and perform much better than traditional jump-diffusion stochastic volatility models.
Download or read book Currency Derivative and International Term Structure Pricing in a Stochastic Interest Rate Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Jump Intensity World written by Shijun Liu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We first derive closed form solutions for currency options, currency futures, future options and the term structures of interest rates in a diffusion-jump model of stochastic interest rate, stochastic volatility and time varying jump intensity in currency price. We demonstrate that the introduction of constant jump intensity in the nominal stochastic discount factor shifts the whole term structure of interest rates vertically but has no influence on its shape. However, when the jump intensity is endogenous (time varying) the shape of the term structure is influenced through the factor sensitivity of interest rates. We also document considerable improvement in currency option pricing precision over alternative models if the true model is diffusion-jump with endogenous intensity in a simulation experiment. We conclude that allowing for multidimensional interaction is of significant qualitative and quantitative importance for the pricing of currency options and for understanding the shape of the term structure.
Download or read book Stochastic Skew in Currency Options written by Liuren Wu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that on any given date, the conditional risk-neutral distribution of currency returns can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switches signs. We develop and estimate a class of models that captures this stochastic skew behavior. Model estimation shows that our stochastic skew models significantly outperform traditional jump-diffusion stochastic volatility models both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Download or read book Pricing Foreign Currency Options with Stochastic Volatility written by Melino, Angelo and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Information Aggregation Herding and Volatility in Financial Markets written by Vladyslav Yuriyvich Sushko and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multinational Finance Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applications of Stochastic Optimal Control to Economics and Finance written by Salvatore Federico and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-23 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world dominated by uncertainty, modeling and understanding the optimal behavior of agents is of the utmost importance. Many problems in economics, finance, and actuarial science naturally require decision makers to undertake choices in stochastic environments. Examples include optimal individual consumption and retirement choices, optimal management of portfolios and risk, hedging, optimal timing issues in pricing American options, and investment decisions. Stochastic control theory provides the methods and results to tackle all such problems. This book is a collection of the papers published in the Special Issue "Applications of Stochastic Optimal Control to Economics and Finance", which appeared in the open access journal Risks in 2019. It contains seven peer-reviewed papers dealing with stochastic control models motivated by important questions in economics and finance. Each model is rigorously mathematically funded and treated, and the numerical methods are employed to derive the optimal solution. The topics of the book's chapters range from optimal public debt management to optimal reinsurance, real options in energy markets, and optimal portfolio choice in partial and complete information settings. From a mathematical point of view, techniques and arguments of dynamic programming theory, filtering theory, optimal stopping, one-dimensional diffusions and multi-dimensional jump processes are used.
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
