Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Models and Securitization in Life Insurance written by Sandra Caterina Gaißer and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Mortality Risk Modeling written by Samuel H. Cox and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a stochastic mortality model featuring both permanent longevity jump and temporary mortality jump processes. A trend reduction component describes unexpected mortality improvement over an extended period of time. The model also captures the uneven effect of mortality events on different ages and the correlations among them. The model will be useful in analyzing future mortality dependent cash flows of life insurance portfolios, annuity portfolios, and portfolios of mortality derivatives. We show how to apply the model to analyze and price a longevity security.

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Modeling and Securitization of Mortality Risk written by Daniel Bauer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Models in Life Insurance written by Michael Koller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-23 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a sound mathematical base for life insurance mathematics and applies the underlying concepts to concrete examples. Moreover the models presented make it possible to model life insurance policies by means of Markov chains. Two chapters covering ALM and abstract valuation concepts on the background of Solvency II complete this volume. Numerous examples and a parallel treatment of discrete and continuous approaches help the reader to implement the theory directly in practice.

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Modelling written by Xiaoming Liu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For life insurance and annuity products whose payoffs depend on the future mortality rates, there is a risk that realized mortality rates will be different from the anticipated rates accounted for in their pricing and reserving calculations. This is termed as mortality risk. Since mortality risk is difficult to diversify and has significant financial impacts on insurance policies and pension plans, it is now a well-accepted fact that stochastic approaches shall be adopted to model the mortality risk and to evaluate the mortality-linked securities.To be more specific, we consider a finite-state Markov process with one absorbing state. This Markov process is related to an underlying aging mechanism and the survival time is viewed as the time until absorption. The resulting distribution for the survival time is a so-called phase-type distribution. This approach is different from the traditional curve fitting mortality models in the sense that the survival probabilities are now linked with an underlying Markov aging process. Markov mathematical and phase-type distribution theories therefore provide us a flexible and tractable framework to model the mortality dynamics. And the time-changed Markov process allows us to incorporate the uncertainties embedded in the future mortality evolution.The proposed model has been applied to price the EIB/BNP Longevity Bonds and other mortality derivatives under the independent assumption of interest rate and mortality rate. A calibrating method for the model is suggested so that it can utilize both the market price information involving the relevant mortality risk and the latest mortality projection. The proposed model has also been fitted to various type of population mortality data for empirical study. The fitting results show that our model can interpret the stylized mortality patterns very well.The objective of this thesis is to propose the use of a time-changed Markov process to describe stochastic mortality dynamics for pricing and risk management purposes. Analytical and empirical properties of this dynamics have been investigated using a matrix-analytic methodology. Applications of the proposed model in the evaluation of fair values for mortality linked securities have also been explored.

Download or read book Modelling in Life Insurance A Management Perspective written by Jean-Paul Laurent and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-02 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focusing on life insurance and pensions, this book addresses various aspects of modelling in modern insurance: insurance liabilities; asset-liability management; securitization, hedging, and investment strategies. With contributions from internationally renowned academics in actuarial science, finance, and management science and key people in major life insurance and reinsurance companies, there is expert coverage of a wide range of topics, for example: models in life insurance and their roles in decision making; an account of the contemporary history of insurance and life insurance mathematics; choice, calibration, and evaluation of models; documentation and quality checks of data; new insurance regulations and accounting rules; cash flow projection models; economic scenario generators; model uncertainty and model risk; model-based decision-making at line management level; models and behaviour of stakeholders. With author profiles ranging from highly specialized model builders to decision makers at chief executive level, this book should prove a useful resource to students and academics of actuarial science as well as practitioners.

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Modelling written by Xiaoming Jr Liu and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Longevity Risk Modeling Securities Pricing and Other Related Issues written by Yinglu Deng and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the adverse financial implications of "longevity risk" and "mortality risk", which have attracted the growing attention of insurance companies, annuity providers, pension funds, public policy decision-makers, and investment banks. Securitization of longevity/mortality risk provides insurers and pension funds an effective, low-cost approach to transferring the longevity/mortality risk from their balance sheets to capital markets. The modeling and forecasting of the mortality rate is the key point in pricing mortality-linked securities that facilitates the emergence of liquid markets. First, this dissertation introduces the discrete models proposed in previous literature. The models include: the Lee-Carter Model, the Renshaw Haberman Model, The Currie Model, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Model, the Cox-Lin-Wang (CLW) Model and the Chen-Cox Model. The different models have captured different features of the historical mortality time series and each one has their own advantages. Second, this dissertation introduces a stochastic diffusion model with a double exponential jump diffusion (DEJD) process for mortality time-series and is the first to capture both asymmetric jump features and cohort effect as the underlying reasons for the mortality trends. The DEJD model has the advantage of easy calibration and mathematical tractability. The form of the DEJD model is neat, concise and practical. The DEJD model fits the actual data better than previous stochastic models with or without jumps. To apply the model, the implied risk premium is calculated based on the Swiss Re mortality bond price. The DEJD model is the first to provide a closed-form solution to price the q-forward, which is the standard financial derivative product contingent on the LifeMetrics index for hedging longevity or mortality risk. Finally, the DEJD model is applied in modeling and pricing of life settlement products. A life settlement is a financial transaction in which the owner of a life insurance policy sells an unneeded policy to a third party for more than its cash value and less than its face value. The value of the life settlement product is the expected discounted value of the benefit discounted from the time of death. Since the discount function is convex, it follows by Jensen's Inequality that the expected value of the function of the discounted benefit till random time of death is always greater than the benefit discounted by the expected time of death. So, the pricing method based on only the life expectancy has the negative bias for pricing the life settlement products. I apply the DEJD mortality model using the Whole Life Time Distribution Dynamic Pricing (WLTDDP) method. The WLTDDP method generates a complete life table with the whole distribution of life times instead of using only the expected life time (life expectancy). When a life settlement underwriter's gives an expected life time for the insured, information theory can be used to adjust the DEJD mortality table to obtain a distribution that is consistent with the underwriter projected life expectancy that is as close as possible to the DEJD mortality model. The WLTDDP method, incorporating the underwriter information, provides a more accurate projection and evaluation for the life settlement products. Another advantage of WLTDDP is that it incorporates the effect of dynamic longevity risk changes by using an original life table generated from the DEJD mortality model table.

Download or read book Applications of Stochastic Mortality Models to the Life Insurance and Pensions Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Under Measure Changes written by Enrico Biffis and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a self-contained analysis of a class of continuous-time stochastic mortality models that have gained popularity in the last few years. We describe some of their advantages and limitations, examining whether their features survive equivalent changes of measures. This is important when using the same model for both market-consistent valuation and risk management of life insurance liabilities. We provide a numerical example based on the calibration to the French annuity market of a risk-neutral version of the model proposed by Lee and Carter (1992).

Download or read book Mortality Risk Management written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a multi-essay dissertation in the area of mortality risk management. The first essay investigates natural hedging between life insurance and annuities and then proposes a mortality swap between a life insurer and an annuity insurer. Compared with reinsurance, capital markets have a greater capacity to absorb insurance shocks, and they may offer more flexibility to meet insurers' needs. Therefore, my second essay studies securitization of mortality risks in life annuities. Specifically I design a mortality bond to transfer longevity risks inherent in annuities or pension plans to financial markets. By explicitly taking into account the jumps in mortality stochastic processes, my third essay fills a gap in the mortality securitization modeling literature by pricing mortality securities in an incomplete market framework. Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, my fourth essay creates a new financial vulnerability index to examine a household's life cycle demand for different types of life insurance.

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Models with Applications in Financial Risk Management written by Siu Hang Li and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Mortality Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency written by Katja Hanewald and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we develop a dynamic asset-liability model to assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in this stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices react to changes in GDP, which itself is modelled as a stochastic process. Our simulation results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.

Download or read book Reducing Model Risk and Improving Mortality Forecasts for Life Insurance Product Pricing written by Hongxuan Yan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pricing of life insurance products depends critically on the ability to model and forecast three core stochastic drivers. Firstly, the ability to accurately forecast expected mortality rates by age group for a given population in order to construct estimates of the life expectancy required for survival linked insurance products. Secondly, the ability to model interest rate dynamics accurately over multi-decade time horizons, and thirdly the ability to model the causal relationship between mortality events and interest rate fluctuations.In this work we tackle all three aspects of these challenging problems faced by actuaries seeking to robustly price life products. We demonstrate with real data for three major populations, U.K., U.S.A. and Australia that we are able to reduce the model risk and associated forecast errors of classical Lee-Carter models in constructing forecasts for mortality and subsequent life expectancy by age and gender. This is achieved by developing new classes of multivariate long-memory models for mortality which we compare to extensions of classical Lee-Carter models. Secondly, we develop standard short rate one factor models for interest rates, in which we incorporate dependence links with our stochastic mortality models. We develop a Bayesian calibration and forecasting framework which is estimated with a Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure.We then utilise these frameworks to study the influence of model risk for life products including annuity portfolios and the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option (GAO). We demonstrate that classical Lee-Carter type models can produce less accurate model forecasts than our proposed multivariate long memory models and we quantify the mispricing cost of this model risk.

Download or read book Interest Rate Models written by Andrew J. G. Cairns and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of financial mathematics has developed tremendously over the past thirty years, and the underlying models that have taken shape in interest rate markets and bond markets, being much richer in structure than equity-derivative models, are particularly fascinating and complex. This book introduces the tools required for the arbitrage-free modelling of the dynamics of these markets. Andrew Cairns addresses not only seminal works but also modern developments. Refreshingly broad in scope, covering numerical methods, credit risk, and descriptive models, and with an approachable sequence of opening chapters, Interest Rate Models will make readers--be they graduate students, academics, or practitioners--confident enough to develop their own interest rate models or to price nonstandard derivatives using existing models. The mathematical chapters begin with the simple binomial model that introduces many core ideas. But the main chapters work their way systematically through all of the main developments in continuous-time interest rate modelling. The book describes fully the broad range of approaches to interest rate modelling: short-rate models, no-arbitrage models, the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework, multifactor models, forward measures, positive-interest models, and market models. Later chapters cover some related topics, including numerical methods, credit risk, and model calibration. Significantly, the book develops the martingale approach to bond pricing in detail, concentrating on risk-neutral pricing, before later exploring recent advances in interest rate modelling where different pricing measures are important.

Download or read book Pandemics Insurance and Social Protection written by María del Carmen Boado-Penas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic. Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers' legal problems, amongst others. Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology.

Download or read book Pension Economics written by David Blake and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-11-02 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While not attempting to train readers as professional economists, this book aims to provide a secure grounding in the theory and practice of economics insofar as it deals with pension matters. From reading this book, the user will understand: * The key types of pension scheme * The role of pensions in maximizing individual lifetime welfare * The role of pensions in individual savings and retirement decisions * The role and consequences of the pension plan from the company's viewpoint * The role of pensions in promoting aggregate savings * The role of pensions and retirement in overlapping generations models * The economics of ageing and intergenerational accounting * The social welfare implications of pensions * The lessons of behavioural economics for pensions