Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of the Areal Extent of Weather Conditions written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If the probability of a 24-hour rainfall, exceeding 1/2 inch, is 10 percent over a small area like a barn, how much greater is the probability of such an amount falling somewhere within a 1000-sq mile region. The generalization of this problem is to relate the probability of a meteorological event at a single location to the problem of its occurrence within a specified area or along a specific line of travel. A Monte Carlo technique was applied to a variable that is normally distributed everywhere in a horizontal space. The procedure produced synoptic maps in which the correlation between the elements at two stations decreases determinably with increasing distance between the stations. On each synoptic map the minimum in various-sized areas or along line segments of various lengths was found. From a large number (like 10,000) of such synoptic fields it was possible to plot estimates of the probability distributions of areal minima (or maxima) or minima (or maxima) along lines of travel. This kind of modelling was tested and found effective on temperatures along flight-path segments of several hundred to several thousand miles in length at 100 mb and on New England 24-hour rainfall. (Author).
Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of the Areal Extent of Weather Conditions written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If the probability of a 24-hour rainfall, exceeding 1/2 inch, is 10 percent over a small area like a barn, how much greater is the probability of such an amount falling somewhere within a 1000-sq mile region. The generalization of this problem is to relate the probability of a meteorological event at a single location to the problem of its occurrence within a specified area or along a specific line of travel. A Monte Carlo technique was applied to a variable that is normally distributed everywhere in a horizontal space. The procedure produced synoptic maps in which the correlation between the elements at two stations decreases determinably with increasing distance between the stations. On each synoptic map the minimum in various-sized areas or along line segments of various lengths was found. From a large number (like 10,000) of such synoptic fields it was possible to plot estimates of the probability distributions of areal minima (or maxima) or minima (or maxima) along lines of travel. This kind of modelling was tested and found effective on temperatures along flight-path segments of several hundred to several thousand miles in length at 100 mb and on New England 24-hour rainfall. (Author)
Download or read book Modeling Climatology of Areal Coverage written by I. I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several stochastic processes have been explored to simulate the areal climatic characteristics of the weather. The success or failure of a model of areal cover, or partial cover, has been judged partly by how well the resulting horizonal field of correlation resembles the natural field. The evaluation of each model, however, is based mostly on its efficiency in approximating the probability distribution of partial or complete coverage, by a weather condition, of an area. Emphasis, in application, is placed on the probability of cloud cover, that should vary from clear or zero cover, to partly cloudy, to overcast or 100% coverage. In addition to the size of the area, the probability distribution is directly related to the horizontal persistence of the weather element, which is parameterized in each model. The parameter is called scale distance. When the model successfully fits the observed areal extent, as viewed by a ground observer, it is then useful in application to other areal dimensions, as might be viewed by a satellite. With each of the several tested models, the snapshot picture of a field can be changed stochastically in a Markov process, simulating thereby a time sequence of weather patterns. Further investigation is well justified.
Download or read book Areal Coverage Estimates by Stochastic Modelling written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to relate the single-point probability of a meteorological event to the probability of its occurrence along a line or in an area of given size or fraction of the area. To make the problem tractable it was limited to modelling the probability estimates of the minimum or maximum condition along a line or in an area, or of the maximized minimum in a fraction of the area. In the absence of an analytical solution a Monte Carlo technique, applied to a Gaussian variable, was used to obtain answers that are presented graphically. Two models are described, one shown to be effective with macroscale events; the other, and more interesting model, is shown to be effective with the mesoscale phenomena of quantitative precipitation in areas ranging from a few hundred square kilometers to more than 50,000 sq. km. (Author).
Download or read book Stochastic Climate Models written by Peter Imkeller and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles written by mathematicians and physicists, designed to describe the state of the art in climate models with stochastic input. Mathematicians will benefit from a survey of simple models, while physicists will encounter mathematically relevant techniques at work.
Download or read book Areal Coverage Estimates by Stochastic Modelling written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to relate the single-point probability of a meteorological event to the probability of its occurrence along a line or in an area of given size or fraction of the area. To make the problem tractable it was limited to modelling the probability estimates of the minimum or maximum condition along a line or in an area, or of the maximized minimum in a fraction of the area. In the absence of an analytical solution a Monte Carlo technique, applied to a Gaussian variable, was used to obtain answers that are presented graphically. Two models are described, one shown to be effective with macroscale events; the other, and more interesting model, is shown to be effective with the mesoscale phenomena of quantitative precipitation in areas ranging from a few hundred square kilometers to more than 50,000 sq. km. (Author)
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Report on Research at AFCRL written by Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Two dimensional Modeling for Lineal and Areal Probabilities of Weather Conditions written by Charles F. Burger and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Single-point probabilities of weather conditions, which are easily estimated from climatic records, have been extended to lines and areas by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation was accomplished using the Boehm Sawtooth Wave (BSW) model. This model was chosen because of its speed and simplicity, and because it has a spatial correlation function similar to that of many weather elements. The BSW model generates fields (or maps) of normally distributed values called Equivalent Normal Deviates (ENDs). The procedure was to obtain the cumulative probability distribution for threshold END values. To do this, a large number of maps had to be generated, 25,000 in all, to approximate the true probability distributions. This was done for 12 different sized square areas and lines. The results were put in graphical form by plotting the probabilities as a function of areal and lineal size, and fitting them to curves through hand analysis. The curves were then fitted by equations, making it possible to obtain solutions quickly by computer. Thus, a model has been produced that can be used to estimate the probability that a certain weather condition will cover a given area or length, or fraction of an area or length.
Download or read book Flood Assessment written by Eric W. Harmsen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About 7,000 people lose their lives and nearly 100 million people are adversely affected by floods each year worldwide. Flooding occurs in almost every part of the world and is the result of extreme rainfall. Severe flooding also costs billions of dollars each year in damage and economic losses. This new volume focuses on two detailed studies that employ physically based hydrologic models to predict flooding in the particularly challenging environment of small watersheds with mountainous terrain and high intensity/high variability rainfall.
Download or read book Estimated Glaze Ice and Wind Loads at the Earth s Surface for the Contiguous United States written by Paul Tattelman and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MIL-STD-210A, 'Climatic Extremes for Military Equipment', is being revised. The revision will include two sets of windspeed design goals for military equipment being developed for worldwide usage over land: (1) the speed up to which 'operations' are expected to proceed, (2) the speed that equipment should 'withstand' without irreversible damage. A study of gustiness and variations of wind with height during strong wind regimes is presented. Nomograms of gust factor versus gust duration and steady windspeed are used to assign the most dynamically effective gust according to equipment dimensions. Based on a power-law relationship, factors for adjusting windspeed to a common height to describe windspeed and gusts over the vertical extent of military equipment usage are presented. Also included is a tabulation of wind statistics for selected stations considered in the search for worldwide wind extremes.
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 728 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Download or read book Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-09-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Climate Change 2007 volumes of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provide the most comprehensive and balanced assessment of climate change available. This IPCC Working Group I report brings us completely up-to-date on the full range of scientific aspects of climate change. Written by the world's leading experts, the IPCC volumes will again prove to be invaluable for researchers, students, and policymakers, and will form the standard reference works for policy decisions for government and industry worldwide.
Download or read book Two Dimensional Modeling for Lineal and Areal Probabilities of Weather Conditions written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Single-point probabilities of weather conditions, which are easily estimated from climatic records, have been extended to lines and areas by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation was accomplished using the Boehm Sawtooth Wave (BSW) model. This model was chosen because of its speed and simplicity, and because it has a spatial correlation function similar to that of many weather elements. The BSW model generates fields (or maps) of normally distributed values called Equivalent Normal Deviates (ENDs). The procedure was to obtain the cumulative probability distribution for threshold END values. To do this, a large number of maps had to be generated, 25,000 in all, to approximate the true probability distributions. This was done for 12 different sized square areas and lines. The results were put in graphical form by plotting the probabilities as a function of areal and lineal size, and fitting them to curves through hand analysis. The curves were then fitted by equations, making it possible to obtain solutions quickly by computer. Thus, a model has been produced that can be used to estimate the probability that a certain weather condition will cover a given area or length, or fraction of an area or length.
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 772 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Superior National Forest N F Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Fuel Treatment written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 854 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Innovations and Challenges of the Energy Transition in Smart City Districts written by Sven Leonhardt and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2023-12-31 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Energiekonzept und die Beschlüsse der Bundesregierung zur Energiewende sind wichtige Weichenstellungen für die Gestaltung des zukünftigen Energiesystems. So soll u. a. die Energieeffizienz in dem Maße gesteigert werden, dass bis zum Jahr 2050 nur noch die Hälfte des Primärenergieverbrauchs im Vergleich zum Jahr 2008 benötigt wird. In Deutschland leben rund 75 % der Menschen in Städten. Daher sind Städte und Agglomerationen besondere Lebens-, Wirtschafts- und Kulturräume. Als solche verlangen sie nach einem zukunftsfähigen Energiesystem und müssen in hohem Maße energieeffizient ausgestaltet sein. Besonders relevant für die Steigerung der Energieeffizienz ist der Gebäudesektor: In den Wohn- und Nichtwohngebäuden bundesweit entstehen rund 35 % des Endenergieverbrauchs, etwa drei Viertel davon in Form von Wärme. Die von der Bundesregierung beschlossene Energiewende, also der Umbau der deutschen Energieversorgung auf Basis hoher Effizienz und mit weitgehender Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien, kann deshalb nur gelingen, wenn diese Wende nicht nur im Strom-, sondern auch im Wärmemarkt umgesetzt wird (sogenannte "Wärmewende"). Mit Blick auf das energie- und klimapolitische Ziel eines nahezu klimaneutralen Gebäudebestands bis zum Jahr 2050 sind neben einer gesteigerten Energieeffizienz die erneuerbaren Energien in weit größerem Maße in den Wärmesektor zu integrieren. Städte und Agglomerationen bieten aufgrund der großen Hebelwirkung die Möglichkeit, technologische und gesellschaftliche Innovationen ungleich schneller und wirksamer in die Praxis umzusetzen und damit die energiepolitischen Ziele der Bundesregierung zu erfüllen.
