Download or read book Regional Spillovers in Sub Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started recovering in 2017, but the question remains of how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth. This note illuminates the discussion by identifying growth spillover channels. The focus is on trade, banking, financial, remittance, investment, fiscal, and security channels, which are the most prominent and most likely to transmit growth trends across borders. In addition to bringing together findings from a broad array of existing research, the note identifies countries that are the most likely sources of regional spillovers and those that are most likely to be impacted, and provides estimates for the size of these channels. It finds that intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers, while banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward. Finally, the note documents other important spillover channels through financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration. The main takeaway is that the level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed. Consequently, there is a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, along with traditional bilateral surveillance.

Download or read book Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-24 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner’s is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.

Download or read book Global Financial Transmission into Sub Saharan Africa A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis written by Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-29 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse responses from a GVAR exercise demonstrate how the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and credit conditions around the globe impact a subset of sub-Saharan African economies and regions. The estimated relationships suggest that the effect of global uncertainty is more pervasive in exports, with the impact on economic and lending activities being mixed. The channels of transmission include the effects of global financial variables on commodity prices and on trading-partner’s macroeconomic and financial variables. The analysis suggests that shocks to credit conditions in the euro area and the U.S. have not significantly affected local lending conditions or economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa during 1991-2011, except perhaps in South Africa.

Download or read book Spillovers from the Rest of the World Into Sub Saharan African Countries written by Gustavo Ramirez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-07 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.

Download or read book Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub Saharan Africa written by Thomas Farole and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the results of a groundbreaking study on ‘spillovers’ of knowledge and technology from global value-chain oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and discusses implications for policymakers hoping to harness the power of FDI for economic development.

Download or read book International Journal of Afro Asian Studies Vol 2 No 2 written by and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Sub Saharan African Migration written by Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.

Download or read book Navigating the Evolving Landscape Between China and Africa s Economic Engagements written by Ms. Wenjie Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-23 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China and Africa have forged a strong economic relationship since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001. This paper examines the evolution of these economic ties starting in the early 2000s, and the subsequent shift in the relationship triggered by the commodity price collapse in 2015 and by the COVID-19 pandemic. The potential effects on the African continent of a further slowdown in Chinese growth are analyzed, highlighting the varying effects on different countries in Africa, especially those heavily dependent on their economic relationship with China. The conclusion offers a discussion of ways how African countries and China could adapt to the changing relationship.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2012 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa have remained generally robust despite a sluggish global economy. The near-term outlook for the region remains broadly positive, and growth is projected at 51⁄4 percent a year in 2012-13. Most low-income countries are projected to continue to grow strongly, supported by domestic demand, including from investment. The outlook is less favorable for many of the middle-income countries, especially South Africa, that are more closely linked to European markets and thus experience a more noticeable drag from the external environment. The main risks to the outlook are an intensification of financial stresses in the euro zone and a sharp fiscal adjustment in the US--the so-called fiscal cliff.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects January 2016 written by WorldBank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-01-21 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About 3⁄4 of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.

Download or read book World Development Report 2008 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007-10-15 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world's demand for food is expected to double within the next 50 years, while the natural resources that sustain agriculture will become increasingly scarce, degraded, and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In many poor countries, agriculture accounts for at least 40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of employment. At the same time, about 70 percent of the world's poor live in rural areas and most depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. 'World Development Report 2008' seeks to assess where, when, and how agriculture can be an effective instrument for economic development, especially development that favors the poor. It examines several broad questions: How has agriculture changed in developing countries in the past 20 years? What are the important new challenges and opportunities for agriculture? Which new sources of agricultural growth can be captured cost effectively in particular in poor countries with large agricultural sectors as in Africa? How can agricultural growth be made more effective for poverty reduction? How can governments facilitate the transition of large populations out of agriculture, without simply transferring the burden of rural poverty to urban areas? How can the natural resource endowment for agriculture be protected? How can agriculture's negative environmental effects be contained? This year's report marks the 30th year the World Bank has been publishing the 'World Development Report'.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2016 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.

Download or read book Global Economic Crisis written by Alexis Arieff and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-08 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan Africa has been strongly affected by the global recession, despite initial optimism that the global financial system would have few spillover effects on the continent. Contents of this report: (1) Recent Develop.; (2) Congressional Interest; (3) African Economies; Trends Prior to the Crisis; Develop. Challenges; (4) How the Crisis is Affecting Africa: Internat. Trade: Trade with the U.S., and with China; Capital Flows: Migrant Remittances; Foreign Aid; (5) Implications of the Crisis in Africa; Sub-Regional Variations; Fiscal and Trade Balances; Poverty Reduction; Food Security; Political Stability; (6) Internat. Efforts to Address the Impact of the Crisis on Africa; Developed Countries; Internat. Financial Inst.; World Bank; ADB; IMF; African Gov¿ts.

Download or read book Finance Development September 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses that from shifting demographics to climate change, Southeast Asia confronts a host of challenges. Summoning them will require both resilience and flexibility. Advances in artificial intelligence, including robotics, together with innovations such as 3-D printing and new composite materials, will transform manufacturing processes, making them less labor-intensive while creating opportunities for new products. This will enable new ways of making things and change the drivers of competitiveness. There will be indirect effects as well. For example, aircraft manufacturers, taking advantage of new composite materials such as carbon fibers, have developed a class of superlong-haul aircraft that could bring more tourists to Southeast Asia as relatively cheap point-to-point travel options emerge. The region should still enjoy synergies from globalization and other modes of economic integration, but the form and shape of such integration could change. For Southeast Asia, the next couple of decades could prove exhilarating in terms of the opportunities presented by technology and global growth, but also tumultuous because of the continuing risks, such as those posed by an unreformed and unstable international financial architecture. There clearly is much hard work to be done. Policymakers still have not gotten everything right, but they are heading in the right direction.

Download or read book Spillover Effects and the East African Community written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East African Community (EAC) countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda) have been affected by the global financial crisis and global recession. The fall in global demand and inflows and tighter liquidity conditions abroad affected the countries in this region as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. But how hard have countries in the EAC been hit? Have the spillovers from the global crisis affected countries in the region as much as other countries in the sub-Saharan region? Have the transmission channels or magnitudes of the spillovers been different across EAC countries? How can these countries return quickly to a path of sustained high growth? What is the role for policy? Would acceleration of regional integration and policy coordination help achieve this goal? Would it make the region less susceptible to shocks? This paper focus on the EAC countries and attempts to address these questions.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Sub Saharan Africa written by Céline Allard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.