Download or read book Spillover Implications of China s Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.
Download or read book China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-23 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.
Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-26 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Download or read book Investment Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.
Download or read book Spillover Effects Of China Going Global written by Joseph Pelzman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-08-18 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the People's Republic of China (PRC) was granted Most Favored Nation (MFN) status by the United States in 1979, no one imagined the massive transformation the Chinese economy would make within a few decades. China's remarkable transition from merely being a “world factory”, to the source of the world's new R&D and product design and innovation since the 1980s is the key focus of Spillover Effects of China Going Global. In this insightful and unique book, Joseph Pelzman shows how the second largest world economy triggered off many spillover effects beyond mass-labour production of durable and non-durable goods — such as the provision of foreign aid to African, Latin American and Asian economies, and increasing focus on internal endogenous innovation, research and development. He provides a comprehensive look at these spillover effects and analyzes how they will undoubtedly bring positive opportunities for others within the rest of the world in the 21st Century.
Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
Download or read book Spillovers from China s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN 5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Download or read book China s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.
Download or read book China s Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV written by Mr.Koshy Mathai and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
Download or read book The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China s Real Estate Investment written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.
Download or read book Spillovers from China s Growth Slowdown to the Singapore Economy written by Kodjovi M. Eklou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-13 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects. Utilizing multi-region input-output tables, empirical estimates, and the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, it identifies significant sectoral and aggregate impacts, particularly in electrical and machinery manufacturing, petrochemicals, and financial services. The analysis underscores the vulnerability of Singapore's economy to shifts in Chinese demand and productivity, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring and strategic adaptation to mitigate potential risks associated with China's slowdown.
Download or read book Chinas Imports Slowdown written by Alexei; Leonidov Kireyev (Andre) and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of the Chinese Economy written by Anna Sznajderska and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The slowdown of economy and widening of domestic imbalances in China bothers economists and politicians across the globe. We estimate the influence of a negative output shock in China on a number of different economies. We concentrate on China's neighboring countries. We compare the results from the Global VAR model and from the Bayesian VAR models. Also using Bayesian model averaging we search for determinants of Chinese spillovers for the global economy. We find that spillovers are stronger to economies with less flexible exchange rates, a higher share of manufacturing in gross value added and to economies which are larger.
Download or read book Spillovers from China written by MissNkunde Mwase and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although China’s much-needed transition to a new growth path is proceeding broadly as expected, the transition is still fraught with uncertainty, including regarding the Chinese authorities’ ability to achieve a smooth rebalancing of growth and the extent of the attendant slowdown in activity. Thus, in the short run, the transition process is likely to entail significant spillovers through trade and commodities, and possibly financial channels. This note sheds some light on the size and nature of financial spillovers from China by looking at the impact of developments in China on global financial markets, with a particular emphasis on differentiation across asset classes and markets. The note shows that economic and financial developments in China have a significant impact on global financial markets, but these effects reflect primarily the central role the country plays in goods trade and commodity markets, rather than China’s financial integration in global markets and the direct financial linkages it has with other countries.
Download or read book China Spillovers Aggregate and Firm Level Evidence written by Alexander Copestake and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-17 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Download or read book The Spillover Effects of Chinese Economy on Southeast Asia and Oceania written by Anna Sznajderska and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
