Download or read book Sovereign Risk Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a "sovereign risk channel" through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a 'sovereign risk channel' through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by . This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a "sovereign risk channel" through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Belief Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Belief Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.

Download or read book Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Macroeconomic Stability and Sovereign Risk written by Dennis Bonam and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In standard macroeconomic models, debt sustainability and price level determinacy are achieved when fiscal policy avoids explosive debt and monetary policy controls inflation, irrespective of the relative strengths of each policy stance. We examine how these policy requirements for equilibrium stability and determinacy change in the presence of sovereign risk. An increase in sovereign risk reduces lender's willingness to hold government debt and raises consumption and inflation. Therefore, inflation and debt dynamics are determined jointly. To ensure stable macroeconomic conditions, both the fiscal and monetary stance must shift to offset debt sustainability concerns. We find that the adoption of a deficit target helps alleviate such concerns and raises the scope for macroeconomic stability.

Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by Mr. Leonardo Martinez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-17 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys the literature on sovereign debt from the perspective of understanding how sovereign debt differs from privately issue debt, and why sovereign debt is deemed safe in some countries but risky in others. The answers relate to the unique power of the sovereign. One the one hand, a sovereign has the power to tax, making debt relatively safe; on the other, it also has control over its territory and most of its assets, making debt enforcement difficult. The paper discusses debt contracts and the sovereign debt market, sovereign debt restructurings, and the empirical and theoretical literatures on the costs and causes of defaults. It describes the adverse impact of sovereign default risk on the issuing countries and what explains this impact. The survey concludes with a discussion of policy options to reduce sovereign risk, including fiscal frameworks that act as commitment devices, state-contingent debt, and independent and credible monetary policy.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-08-11 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-01-27 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to inform policymakers, and other interested parties, about the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment. The approach focuses on the role of sound and sustainable government finances in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Achieving, and maintaining, such a fiscal position often requires adjusting fiscal policy, as well as strengthening fiscal institutions. Fiscal adjustment may involve either tightening or loosening the fiscal stance, depending on individual country circumstances.

Download or read book Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth written by Mr.James Daniel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08-17 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

Download or read book Fiscal Transfers in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Risk written by Guilherme Bandeira and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Este documento investiga los efectos sobre el bienestar y las propiedades de estabilización económica de un esquema de transferencias fi scales entre miembros de una unión monetaria sujetos a choques de riesgo soberano. El esquema consiste en reglas de transferencia entre países que se activan cuando los diferenciales de riesgo soberano se amplían. Este esquema se incorpora en un modelo con fricciones financieras. En particular, los bancos de cada país tienen bonos del Gobierno en sus carteras y, por eso, están expuestos al riesgo soberano. Cuando este aumenta, el valor patrimonial de los bancos baja, obligándoles a contraer el crédito al sector privado y, al mismo tiempo, a elevar los tipos de interés. Este documento muestra que, cuando la política fi scal en cada país no es distorsionadora, las transferencias fi scales mejoran el bienestar y la estabilidad macroeconómica. Esto se debe a que las transferencias fi scales pueden reducir la exposición de los bancos a la deuda del Gobierno, liberando el suministro de crédito al sector privado. Por el contrario, cuando la política fiscal interna es distorsionadora, las transferencias fiscales causan pérdidas de bienestar, a pesar de estabilizar la economía. Este resultado surge porque las distorsiones causadas por el financiamiento del esquema superan los efectos positivos de las transferencias fi scales al suavizar el ajuste de la economía afectada por el choque.

Download or read book Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-09 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book covers a wide range of topics of relevance to policymakers in countries that have sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and those that receive SWF investments. Renowned experts in the field have contributed chapters. The book is organized around four themes: (1) the role and macrofinancial linkages of SWFs, (2) institutional factors, (3) investment approaches and financial markets, and (4) the postcrisis outlook. The book also discusses the challenges facing sovereign wealth funds in the coming years, from an inside perspective on countries, including Canada, Chile, China, Norway, Russia, and New Zealand. Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds will contribute to a further understanding of the nature, strategies and behavior of SWFs and the environment in which they operate, as their importance is likely to grow in the coming years.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Stabilization and Growth written by Guillermo E. Perry and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007-10-19 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.

Download or read book Tax Policy Leverage and Macroeconomic Stability written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-10 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risks to macroeconomic stability posed by excessive private leverage are significantly amplified by tax distortions. ‘Debt bias’ (tax provisions favoring finance by debt rather than equity) has increased leverage in both the household and corporate sectors, and is now widely recognized as a significant macroeconomic concern. This paper presents new evidence of the extent of debt bias, including estimates for banks and non-bank financial institutions both before and after the global financial crisis. It presents policy options to alleviate debt bias, and assesses their effectiveness. The paper finds that thin capitalization rules restricting interest deductibility have only partially been able to address debt bias, but that an allowance for corporate equity has generally proved effective. The paper concludes that debt bias should feature prominently in countries’ tax reform plans in the coming years.