Download or read book Simplicity Complexity and Modelling written by Mike Christie and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-19 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved. Key Features: Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics. Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development. Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems. Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines. Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions. This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by John Wainwright and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-04-08 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation models are increasingly used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines eg. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, engineering. Environmental Modelling: A Practical Approach addresses the development, testing and application of such models, which apply across traditional boundaries, and demonstrate how interactions across these boundaries can be beneficial. Provides a general overview of methods and approaches as well as focusing on key subject areas written by leading practitioners in the field Assesses the advantages and disadvantages of different models used and provides case studies supported with data, output, tutorial exercises and links to the model and/or model applications via the book's website Covers major developments in the field, eg. the use of GIS and remote sensing techniques, and scaling issues As associated website contains colour images, as well as links to www resources
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by John Wainwright and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-22 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation models are an established method used to investigate processes and solve practical problems in a wide variety of disciplines. Central to the concept of this second edition is the idea that environmental systems are complex, open systems. The authors present the diversity of approaches to dealing with environmental complexity and then encourage readers to make comparisons between these approaches and between different disciplines. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity 2nd edition is divided into four main sections: An overview of methods and approaches to modelling. State of the art for modelling environmental processes Tools used and models for management Current and future developments. The second edition evolves from the first by providing additional emphasis and material for those students wishing to specialize in environmental modelling. This edition: Focuses on simplifying complex environmental systems. Reviews current software, tools and techniques for modelling. Gives practical examples from a wide variety of disciplines, e.g. climatology, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology and engineering. Has an associated website containing colour images, links to WWW resources and chapter support pages, including data sets relating to case studies, exercises and model animations. This book is suitable for final year undergraduates and postgraduates in environmental modelling, environmental science, civil engineering and biology who will already be familiar with the subject and are moving on to specialize in the field. It is also designed to appeal to professionals interested in the environmental sciences, including environmental consultants, government employees, civil engineers, geographers, ecologists, meteorologists, and geochemists.
Download or read book Complexity and Spatial Networks written by Aura Reggiani and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-08-14 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex systems analysis has become a fascinating topic in modern research on non-linear dynamics, not only in the physical sciences but also in the life sciences and the social sciences. After the era of bifurcation theory, chaos theory, syn- getics, resilience analysis, network dynamics and evolutionary thinking, currently we observe an increasing interest in critical transitions of dynamic real-world systems in many disciplines, such as demography, biology, psychology, economics, earth sciences, geology, seismology, medical sciences, and so on. The relevance of this approach is clearly re?ected in such phenomena as traf?c congestion, ?nancial crisis, ethnic con?icts, eco-system breakdown, health failures, etc. This has prompted a world-wide interest in complex systems. Geographical space is one of the playgrounds for complex dynamics, as is witnessed by population movements, transport ?ows, retail developments, urban expansion, lowland ?ooding and so forth. All such dynamic phenomena have one feature in common: the low predictability of uncertain interrelated events occurring at different interconnected spatio-temporal scale levels and often originating from different disciplinary backgrounds. The study of the associated non-linear (fast and slow) dynamic transition paths calls for a joint research effort of scientists from different disciplines in order to understand the nature, the roots and the con- quences of unexpected or unpredictable changes in complex spatial systems.
Download or read book Simplicity Inference and Modelling written by Arnold Zellner and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-02-07 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics.
Download or read book The Laws of Simplicity written by John Maeda and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2006-07-07 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten laws of simplicity for business, technology, and design that teach us how to need less but get more. Finally, we are learning that simplicity equals sanity. We're rebelling against technology that's too complicated, DVD players with too many menus, and software accompanied by 75-megabyte "read me" manuals. The iPod's clean gadgetry has made simplicity hip. But sometimes we find ourselves caught up in the simplicity paradox: we want something that's simple and easy to use, but also does all the complex things we might ever want it to do. In The Laws of Simplicity, John Maeda offers ten laws for balancing simplicity and complexity in business, technology, and design—guidelines for needing less and actually getting more. Maeda—a professor in MIT's Media Lab and a world-renowned graphic designer—explores the question of how we can redefine the notion of "improved" so that it doesn't always mean something more, something added on. Maeda's first law of simplicity is "Reduce." It's not necessarily beneficial to add technology features just because we can. And the features that we do have must be organized (Law 2) in a sensible hierarchy so users aren't distracted by features and functions they don't need. But simplicity is not less just for the sake of less. Skip ahead to Law 9: "Failure: Accept the fact that some things can never be made simple." Maeda's concise guide to simplicity in the digital age shows us how this idea can be a cornerstone of organizations and their products—how it can drive both business and technology. We can learn to simplify without sacrificing comfort and meaning, and we can achieve the balance described in Law 10. This law, which Maeda calls "The One," tells us: "Simplicity is about subtracting the obvious, and adding the meaningful."
Download or read book Nonlinear Wave Dynamics written by J. Engelbrecht and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the end of the twentieth century, nonlinear dynamics turned out to be one of the most challenging and stimulating ideas. Notions like bifurcations, attractors, chaos, fractals, etc. have proved to be useful in explaining the world around us, be it natural or artificial. However, much of our everyday understanding is still based on linearity, i. e. on the additivity and the proportionality. The larger the excitation, the larger the response-this seems to be carved in a stone tablet. The real world is not always reacting this way and the additivity is simply lost. The most convenient way to describe such a phenomenon is to use a mathematical term-nonlinearity. The importance of this notion, i. e. the importance of being nonlinear is nowadays more and more accepted not only by the scientific community but also globally. The recent success of nonlinear dynamics is heavily biased towards temporal characterization widely using nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Nonlinear spatio-temporal processes, i. e. nonlinear waves are seemingly much more complicated because they are described by nonlinear partial differential equations. The richness of the world may lead in this case to coherent structures like solitons, kinks, breathers, etc. which have been studied in detail. Their chaotic counterparts, however, are not so explicitly analysed yet. The wavebearing physical systems cover a wide range of phenomena involving physics, solid mechanics, hydrodynamics, biological structures, chemistry, etc.
Download or read book Simplicity in Complexity written by Rajesh R. Parwani and published by Simplicity Research Institute. This book was released on 2015-01-28 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do scientists model crowd behaviour, epidemics, earthquakes or the internet? What can we learn from the collective intelligence and adaptability of an ant colony? This book answers such questions by highlighting common themes in the study of complex systems. Topics covered include self-organisation, emergence, agent-based simulations, complex networks, phase plane plots, fractals, chaos, measures of complexity, model building, and the scientific method. Explanations are simple and concise, with common misconceptions clarified. Numerous exercises help enthusiasts consolidate their understanding through peer learning. Supplementary resources are at the companion websites www.simplicitysg.net/books and www.facebook.com/simcomty.
Download or read book Deep Simplicity written by John Gribbin and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2009-08-27 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Gribbin takes us through the basics with his customary talent for accessibility and clarity' Sunday Times The world around us can be a complex, confusing place. Earthquakes happen without warning, stock markets fluctuate, weather forecasters seldom seem to get it right - even other people continue to baffle us. How do we make sense of it all? In fact, John Gribbin reveals, our seemingly random universe is actually built on simple laws of cause and effect that can explain why, for example, just one vehicle braking can cause a traffic jam; why wild storms result from a slight atmospheric change; even how we evolved from the most basic materials. Like a zen painting, a fractal image or the pattern on a butterfly's wings, simple elements form the bedrock of a sophisticated whole. Synthesizing chaos and complexity theory for the perplexed, Deep Simplicity brilliantly illuminates the harmony underlying our existence.
Download or read book Why Simple Wins written by Lisa Bodell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-13 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine what you could do with the time you spend writing emails every day. Complexity is killing companies' ability to innovate and adapt, and simplicity is fast becoming the competitive advantage of our time. Why Simple Wins helps leaders and their teams move beyond the feelings of frustration and futility that come with so much unproductive work in today's corporate world to create a corporate culture where valuable, essential, meaningful work is the norm. By learning how to eliminate redundancies, communicate with clarity, and make simplification a habit, individuals and companies can begin to recognize which activities are time-sucks and which create lasting value. Lisa Bodell's simplification method has several unique principles: Simplification is a skill that's available to us all, yet very few leaders use it. Simplification is the right thing to do--for our customers, for our company, and for each other. Operating with simplification as our core business model will make it easier to be respectful of each other's time. Simplification drives culture, and culture in turn drives employee engagement, customer relations, and overall productivity. This book is inspired by Bodell's passion for eliminating barriers to innovation and productivity. In it, she explains why change and innovation are so hard to achieve--and it's not what you might expect. The reality is this: we spend our days drowning in mundane tasks like meetings, emails, and reports. These are often self-created complexities that prevent us from getting to the meaningful work that truly matters. Using simple stories and techniques, Why Simple Wins shows that by using simplicity as an operating principle, we can eliminate the busy work that puts a chokehold on us every day, and instead spend time on the work that we value.
Download or read book Simplicity Ideals of Practice in Mathematics and the Arts written by Roman Kossak and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To find "criteria of simplicity" was the goal of David Hilbert's recently discovered twenty-fourth problem on his renowned list of open problems given at the 1900 International Congress of Mathematicians in Paris. At the same time, simplicity and economy of means are powerful impulses in the creation of artworks. This was an inspiration for a conference, titled the same as this volume, that took place at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York in April of 2013. This volume includes selected lectures presented at the conference, and additional contributions offering diverse perspectives from art and architecture, the philosophy and history of mathematics, and current mathematical practice.
Download or read book Simplicity Inference and Modeling written by Arnold Zellner and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. Using a multidisciplinary perspective this monograph asks 'What is meant by simplicity?'
Download or read book Simulation and Its Discontents written by Sherry Turkle and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-11-01 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the simulation and visualization technologies so pervasive in science, engineering, and design have changed our way of seeing the world. Over the past twenty years, the technologies of simulation and visualization have changed our ways of looking at the world. In Simulation and Its Discontents, Sherry Turkle examines the now dominant medium of our working lives and finds that simulation has become its own sensibility. We hear it in Turkle's description of architecture students who no longer design with a pencil, of science and engineering students who admit that computer models seem more “real” than experiments in physical laboratories. Echoing architect Louis Kahn's famous question, “What does a brick want?”, Turkle asks, “What does simulation want?” Simulations want, even demand, immersion, and the benefits are clear. Architects create buildings unimaginable before virtual design; scientists determine the structure of molecules by manipulating them in virtual space; physicians practice anatomy on digitized humans. But immersed in simulation, we are vulnerable. There are losses as well as gains. Older scientists describe a younger generation as “drunk with code.” Young scientists, engineers, and designers, full citizens of the virtual, scramble to capture their mentors' tacit knowledge of buildings and bodies. From both sides of a generational divide, there is anxiety that in simulation, something important is slipping away. Turkle's examination of simulation over the past twenty years is followed by four in-depth investigations of contemporary simulation culture: space exploration, oceanography, architecture, and biology.
Download or read book The Universe as Automaton written by Klaus Mainzer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Brief is an essay at the interface of philosophy and complexity research, trying to inspire the reader with new ideas and new conceptual developments of cellular automata. Going beyond the numerical experiments of Steven Wolfram, it is argued that cellular automata must be considered complex dynamical systems in their own right, requiring appropriate analytical models in order to find precise answers and predictions in the universe of cellular automata. Indeed, eventually we have to ask whether cellular automata can be considered models of the real world and, conversely, whether there are limits to our modern approach of attributing the world, and the universe for that matter, essentially a digital reality.
Download or read book Simplicity from Complexity in Earth System Models written by Sile Li and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Software Complexity written by Horst Zuse and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2019-10-08 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No detailed description available for "Software Complexity".
Download or read book Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data written by Lang Wu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-11-11 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.
