Download or read book Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements written by Joseph Ato Forson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI) and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS), the consumer price index (CPI), interest rate (IR) and the industrial production index (IP) (as a proxy for GDP). Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1) and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto's augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Market written by Andreas Humpe and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 714 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Do MacRoeconomic Variables Have an Effect on the Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.

Download or read book Nexus Between Stock Price Volatility and Selected Macroeconomic Variables written by Dr. P. Karthika and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: India is taken into account a high potential investment destination all-over the world even though it has some challenges like political, social, cultural complexities.Wide literature survey is available on the macroeconomic factors affecting the Indian stock market volatility. There is a general belief on macroeconomic variable affects the functioning of stock market and its volatility (PallaviKudal 2010). In developing countries like India stock markets are sensitive to change in the macroeconomic variable. It is presumed that domestic economic fundamentals affect performance of the stock market but the changes in domestic variables may occur due to the changes in the global environment. This stimulates the researcher to find out whether the macroeconomic variable changes create any volatility in the Indian stock market. This study used the average monthly closing price of Nifty 50 from June 2000 to December 2016 and the average monthly data of 12 macroeconomic variables for analyzing, which factors influence the performance of Nifty 50 in India. In this study the selected variables are grouped into three factors by using factor analysis and named as macro environment factors, industrial performance factor and policy rates. The empirical result shows that macro environments and industrial performance factors are used to predict the variance in Nifty 50.

Download or read book The Relationship Between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Policy Variables written by Sisangile Nduna and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Black Monday and the Future of Financial Markets written by Robert J. Barro and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1989 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Do Macroeconomic Variables have an Effect on the US Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.

Download or read book A Study on Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Markets in the United States Germany and Hong Kong written by Taibo Mu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This empirical study investigates the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and the stock markets in the US, Germany, and Hong Kong. The seven chosen macroeconomic variables are interest rate, inflation, oil price, unemployment rate, industrial production index, money supply, and exchange rate. In this study, Pearson's correlation, unit root tests, Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, and regression model are used to identify how these macroeconomic variables impact on S&P500 in the United States, DAX 30 in Germany, and Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong with the monthly series for a period of 18 years from July 1997 to July 2015. The empirical results show that there are short-term causal relationships and long-term equilibrium relationships between macroeconomic variables and the stock markets in these three countries.

Download or read book Trade Investment and Economic Growth written by Pooja Lakhanpal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book contributes to the growing literature pertaining to empirical and policy issues in international trade, foreign capital flows and issues in finance, implications for India and emerging economies related to trade and development interface, and analysis of sector level growth and development in India. Further, the focus is on the policy aspects of these themes and their role in fostering economic development in the context of India and other emerging market economies. The discourse focuses mainly on empirical work and econometric details. The relevant issues are investigated using state of the art techniques such as gravity models, panel co-integration, generalized hyperbolic distributions, SEM, FMOLS and Probit models. In addition, detailed literature survey, discussions on data availability, issues related to statistical estimation techniques and a theoretical background, ensure that each chapter significantly contributes to the ever-growing literature on international trade and capital flows. The readers shall find an engaging dialogue on the crucial role played by policy and the trade-capital flows-growth experience of emerging economies. The book is relevant for those who are interested in contemporary issues in trade, growth and finance as well as for students of advanced econometrics who may benefit from the analytical and econometric exposition. The empirical evidences provided here could serve as ready reference for academicians, researchers and policy makers, particularly in emerging economies facing similar challenges.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

Download or read book Can Macroeconomic Variables Explain Long Term Movements of Stock Market Sector Indices written by Erfan Mahmood Bhuiyan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the relationship between stock market returns and macro-economic variables has been amply examined, a gap exists in the literature regarding the relationship between different sector indices and various macroeconomic variables. This study intends to examine how certain macroeconomic variables influence different sectors of the stock market differently in the US and Canada. Using monthly data over the period 2000 – 2018, cointegration analysis is applied to model the relationship between real economic activity, money supply, long-term interest rate and different sector indices. Sectors that have been examined in this study include energy, financials, real estate, industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, materials, utilities and technology. Results suggest that there is a stable long-term relationship between the macroeconomic variables used in the study and different sector indices for the US but not for Canada. However, US money supply and interest rate can explain the Canadian Stock Market.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Variables and Security Prices in India during the Liberalized Period written by Tarak Nath Sahu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. The research findings and policy implications discussed here may also be relevant for other emerging economies.

Download or read book The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Volatility written by Sarod Khandaker and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using data from ten developed and seven emerging countries, we analyse stock market's volatility and the macroeconomic factors that influence stock market's volatility from January 2001 till December 2012. We use standard historical volatility model followed by Jones et al. (1998) and Andersen and Bollerslev (1998) to calculate the historical stock market's volatility for the sample countries. Our results show that stock markets of the sample countries are volatile during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and these effects are statistically significant for the emerging county group. Selected macroeconomic variables and corporate governance indicators, such as rule of law, regulatory control and GDP per capita are positively associate with the stock market volatility, and corruption perception index and budget deficits are negatively correlated. Other macroeconomic variables such as, Co2 emission, tax revenue, agricultural value added and tourism receipt also found significant in the analysis. This suggests our sample emerging markets were volatile during 2007-2009 not only because of the GFC but also for the other macroeconomic factors. The robustness tests also produce a similar result with little variation.

Download or read book Stock Prices and Monetary Policy written by Paul De Grauwe and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.

Download or read book Changes in Macroeconomic Variables and Their Impact on Stock Price Indices A Case Study of the Financial Times Stock Exchange FTSE and Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE Indices written by Kudzanai Chakona and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2022-11-07 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, Birmingham City University, course: MSc Accountancy and Finance (ACCA), language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes in macroeconomic variables and evaluate the impact on a company’s stock prices, by examining the impact of changes macroeconomic variables, determining which macro-economic variables that have the least and most impact on stock prices and also suggest ways in which the impact on the macroeconomic variables on stock prices can be hedged against using agricultural futures, metal futures or a risk-free asset. The study will use five econometric models to test this impact, these include the Granger Causality test, Johansen Co-Integration test, Vector Error Model, Walt Test statistic, Multiple Regression Model. A review of a number of academic literature by notable analysis for both developed and developing markets will be provided. The FTSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developed markets and the JSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developing markets.

Download or read book Random Forest Based Feature Selection of Macroeconomic Variables for Stock Market Prediction written by Kofi O. Nti and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A firm's equity price on the stock-market is reported to be closely related to the Macroeconomic Variable (MVs) of the country in which the firm trades. For this reason, researchers, market traders, financial analysts and forecasters to examine the association between MVs and stock-price have carried out numerous studies, using time-series statistical analysis methods like Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH). However, these techniques are reported to suffer from limited predictive power and restrictive assumptions. Besides, in pursuit of ways to remedy these paucities and limitations within these techniques, some researchers have examined uncountable machine learning techniques for measuring the stock-markets trends and making trading decisions using macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, a higher percentage of these studies paid attention to the stock index prediction and neglected the diversity of MVs that influence different sector indices. In addressing the issues above, this study seeks to examine the degree of significance between different sectors stock-price and MVs and predict a 30-day head stock-price using Random Forest (RF) with an improve leave-one-out cross-validation tactic and Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTMRNN). An empirical analysis of the proposed model over the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) exhibits high prediction accuracy and better mean absolute error compared with other time-series techniques. It can, therefore, be inferred from the fallouts that the proposed stock-market prediction with MVs, provides an efficient approach to automatic identification and extraction of MVs that affect diverse sector stock and offer an accurate prediction of a stock's future price.

Download or read book Can Macroeconomic Variables Explain Long Term Stock Market Movements written by Andreas Humpe and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: