Download or read book Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam written by Sanjay Kalra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in Vietnam, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The paper finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods”; periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and conversely. EVIEWS and MATLAB programs which accompany the paper allow quick, timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam on an ongoing basis.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin March 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-06 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
Download or read book Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-06 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2012 Article IV Consultation focuses on the financial sector and macroeconomic situation in Vietnam. The authorities adopted a stabilization package in February 2011 in response to increasing pressures on prices and the exchange rate in late 2010. Executive Directors commended the tightening of macroeconomic policies in 2011, which contributed to declining inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and a rebuilding of international reserves. Directors also recommended that monetary policy give priority to reducing inflation and rebuilding reserves further.
Download or read book Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam highlights that gradual fiscal consolidation, strict limits on government guarantees and robust growth in recent years have led to declining government debt, expected to continue under current policies. But while there is some fiscal space, fiscal needs are large, for infrastructure, social spending and to deal with population aging. The tightening of credit growth continued in 2018; however, liquidity remained ample, aided by the strong balance of payments and tight fiscal policies. The State Bank of Vietnam has initiated plans to modernize its monetary framework with IMF technical support. The authorities’ efforts to improve economic institutions and governance continue and the fight against grand corruption has resulted in significant sentences in recent high-profile cases. Improvements in transparency and statistical systems are underway, with support from the IMF and the Financial Action Task Force’s Asia Pacific Group.
Download or read book World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2018 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-10-03 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Despite some financial turbulence, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during the first half of 2018. The growth outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. However, downside risks have significantly intensified. An escalation in trade tensions and heightened financial market turbulence, either due to an acceleration in U.S. monetary policy normalization or contagion from other emerging markets could threaten the region's growth prospects. To navigate uncertainty, developing EAP economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen social assistance and insurance programs to increase households' resilience to systemic shocks."
Download or read book Vietnam written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-05 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spurred by an impressive vaccination drive, the economy is rebounding from a severe pandemic wave. The government successfully maintained fiscal, external, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the labor market recovery is lagging, with sizeable underemployment, small and medium sized enterprises remain vulnerable, problem loans are rising, real estate and corporate bond market risks are elevated, and the pandemic exacerbated longstanding structural challenges.
Download or read book Advances in Non linear Economic Modeling written by Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years nonlinearities have gained increasing importance in economic and econometric research, particularly after the financial crisis and the economic downturn after 2007. This book contains theoretical, computational and empirical papers that incorporate nonlinearities in econometric models and apply them to real economic problems. It intends to serve as an inspiration for researchers to take potential nonlinearities in account. Researchers should be aware of applying linear model-types spuriously to problems which include non-linear features. It is indispensable to use the correct model type in order to avoid biased recommendations for economic policy.
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia written by Ms.Rina Bhattacharya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2011 Asia and Pacific written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-28 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2011 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific focuses on the policy challenges of managing the next phase of growth after Asia's recovery from the global crisis. The analytical chapters discuss how capital flows to the region may affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of macroprudential measures in this context, the implications of the Asian supply chain for rebalancing growth across the region, and the policy challenges for Asian low-income and Pacific Island countries. Economic recovery in Asia as a whole has been rapid (8.3 percent in 2010) and fueled by both exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate but also more sustainable pace in 2011 and 2012, led by China and India. Meanwhile, new risks to the outlook have emerged. The full human cost and impact on infrastructure of the mid-March earthquake and tsunami in Japan remain to be determined. The steady response of the Japanese government and people has helped to contain the effects of the disaster on production, but a risk remains of prolonged disruptions in production that could spill over to other Asian economies in the regional supply chain. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and related risk of further oil price spikes could disrupt global growth and affect Asian exports. Finally, pockets of overheating have emerged in Asia, as core inflation and credit growth have accelerated in several Asian economies. The need to tighten macroeconomic policy stances has become more pressing than it was six months ago.
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Download or read book Vietnam 2035 written by World Bank Group;Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty years of Ä?ổi Má»›i (economic renovation) reforms have catapulted Vietnam from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to one of its great development success stories. Critical ingredients have been visionary leaders, a sense of shared societal purpose, and a focus on the future. Starting in the late 1980s, these elements were successfully fused with the embrace of markets and the global economy. Economic growth since then has been rapid, stable, and inclusive, translating into strong welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. But three decades of success from reforms raises expectations for the future, as aptly captured in the Vietnamese constitution, which sets the goal of “a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country.†? There is a firm aspiration that by 2035, Vietnam will be a modern and industrialized nation moving toward becoming a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society. The Vietnam 2035 report, a joint undertaking of the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank Group, seeks to better comprehend the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It shows that the country’s aspirations and the supporting policy and institutional agenda stand on three pillars: balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability; promoting equity and social inclusion to develop a harmonious middle- class society; and enhancing the capacity and accountability of the state to establish a rule of law state and a democratic society. Vietnam 2035 further argues that the rapid growth needed to achieve the bold aspirations will be sustained only if it stands on faster productivity growth and reflects the costs of environmental degradation. Productivity growth, in turn, will benefit from measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, scale up the benefits of urban agglomeration, and build national technological and innovative capacity. Maintaining the record on equity and social inclusion will require lifting marginalized groups and delivering services to an aging and urbanizing middle-class society. And to fulfill the country’s aspirations, the institutions of governance will need to become modern, transparent, and fully rooted in the rule of law.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2015 written by The World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Download or read book Vietnam written by Wojciech Maliszewski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation written by Mr. Natan P. Epstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-24 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2008 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-10 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
