Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets written by Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of emerging markets have experienced substantial real exchange rate appreciation in recent years, generating concerns about competitiveness and prompting policymakers to respond with a combination of mitigating policies. This paper shows that fiscal policy can play a role in alleviating these pressures. Using a sample of 28 emerging market economies over 1983-2011, we estimate a dynamic model of the real exchange rate and find that a permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role. To illustrate the importance of these findings, the paper focuses on the case of Brazil. Our results suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline while increasing public investment in Brazil is likely to ease real appreciation pressures, highlighting the importance of tackling long-standing budget rigidities.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Policies For Emerging Market Economies written by Richard J Sweeney and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-13 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the loss of Soviet control in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the move toward economic liberalization in many developing countries, a huge increase in the number of convertible currencies in the world has occurred. A key aspect of the management of these currencies involves their relationships with the world economy, which is determined

Download or read book Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets written by John Williamson and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the Asian/global financial crises of 1997-98, how should emerging markets now structure their exchange rate systems to prevent new crises from occurring? This study challenges current orthodoxy by advocating the revival of intermediate exchange rate regimes. In so doing, Williamson presents a reasoned challenge to the new prevailing attitude which claims that all countries involved in the international capital markets need to polarize to one of the extreme regimes (to a fixed rate with either a currency board or dollarization, or to a lightly-managed float). He concludes that although there is some truth in the allegation that intermediate regimes are vulnerable to speculative crises, they still offer offsetting advantages. He also contends that it would be possible to redesign them to be more flexible so as to reduce their vulnerability to crises.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rates Economic Complexity and Investment written by Steve Brito and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Arrangements for Emerging Market Economies written by Felipe Larraín B. and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews some empirical evidence on the recent performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements in emerging markets. Examines the concrete circumstances under which either polar regime should be adopted. Studies how to make flexibility work in practice, with special attention to inflation targets and alternativie monetary policy rules. Focuses on the possible role of capital controls as a complementary policy.

Download or read book Collateral Damage written by Mr.Pablo Druck and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-29 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles—which are highly persistent—mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries written by Luis Servén and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Serven examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.

Download or read book Non Linear Exchange Rate Pass Through in Emerging Markets written by Francesca G Caselli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-05 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices using local projection techniques to obtain state dependent impulse responses in a panel of 28 emerging markets. We find significant evidence of non-linearities during episodes of depreciation greater than 10 and 20 percent. More specifically, we find that, after one month, the exchange rate pass-through coefficient is equal to 18 and 25 percent respectively, compared to a coefficient of 6 percent in the linear case. We also investigate the role of temporary vs. permanent shocks and the adoption of an inflation targeting regime in the transmission from exchange rate movements to prices. We perform a set of robustness checks, addressing the presence of outliers and potential endogeneity concerns.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Assessments written by Mr.Jaewoo Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-04-07 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.

Download or read book Two Targets Two Instruments written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-29 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Download or read book Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Movements in 15 Emerging Market Economies written by Thomas Goda and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous work has established that an appreciation of the real exchange rate (REER) contributes to premature deindustrialization, less productive investment and dependence on commodity booms and busts in emerging markets economies (EME). From the previous literature, it is less clear however what the most important drivers for the cyclical REER movements in EME are. The main aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence about the determinants of the REER movements of 15 emerging markets during the last two decades, using statistical analysis and a dynamic panel fixed effects model approach. Our analysis shows that although "commodity" and "industrial" EME are heterogeneous, REER volatility tends to be higher among the former. Yet, REER volatility between emerging and advanced countries does not differ very much, apart from a few EME countries. Countries that had more stable REER trend fared better than those that had a depreciating or appreciating trend (with the notable exception of China). As theoretically expected, commodity prices are an important structural driver of REER movements in "commodity EME". Moreover, the results confirm the existence of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect, and show the importance of financial inflows. Further, exchange rate regimes and the intervention of central banks were partially successful to avoid more substantial appreciations (depreciations). Finally, we find that lower country risk and, at least in some periods, growing broad money has led to REER appreciations.

Download or read book Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies written by International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-10-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.

Download or read book When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals written by Luca Antonio Ricci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the CPI-based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets and in government consumption tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.

Download or read book Time varying Real Exchange Rate Risk in Emerging Markets written by Premalata Shenbagaraman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specifically, this study investigates the relationship between changes in the real exchange rate and the pricing of risky financial assets in seventeen emerging and frontier markets of South & East Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. National investor groups are delineated by deviations from purchasing power parity, which causes them to evaluate differently the real returns from the same security. In a model with deviations from purchasing power parity, risky assets are priced based on their covariance with the world market and their covariance with changes in the real exchange rate. The study employs a conditional approach that allows for time varying risk premia in the presence of rational exchange rate risk hedging behavior by international investors. The results strongly support the multi-factor conditional international asset-pricing model with real exchange rate risk. The null hypothesis that exchange rate risk is not priced is rejected for all seventeen emerging markets. Implications are derived for optimal portfolio choices and currency risk hedging strategies for individual investors and firms seeking to diversify their portfolio holdings by investing in emerging market stocks and bonds.

Download or read book Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets written by Andrés Velasco and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rates in Emerging Market Economies written by Neha Kataria and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses quarterly data to examine the effect of global and domestic factors on the real effective exchange rates (REER) for 20 emerging market economies for 2000-2015. We find that GDP growth and the domestic policy interest rate are robustly associated with REER appreciation in emerging economies. Among global factors, an increase in global risk is negatively related to the real exchange rate, while the Brent crude oil price is positively related. The overall positive effect of crude oil price is more pronounced for the REER of oil-exporting countries, and negative for oil-importing countries. We also find that a relatively flexible exchange rate regime reduces the negative impact of global risk on REER, but capital account openness does not seem to play a role. These findings have implications for emerging market economies in developing policies to respond to commodity price fluctuations and changes in the global monetary and risk environment.