Download or read book Reachable Futures Structural Change and the Practical Credibility of Environmental Simulation Models written by Olufemi O. Osidele and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2002-03 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation modeling is arguably the most versatile scientific tool for predicting the future environment. However, the reliability of model-based predictions is limited to the behavior domain defined by the historical data employed for conceptualizing and calibrating the model. Future changes in external inputs and internal structure tend to produce system behavior significantly different from prior predictions. To abate this seeming lack of credibility, it is now customary to qualify model predictions with uncertainty estimates. This dissertation explores the complementary approach of back-casting future scenarios. Centered on the analysis of uncertainty, a methodological framework is developed for the computational evaluation of environmental futures, driven by stakeholder participation as a means for establishing credibility in the model. The analysis reveals possible structural change between the observed past and speculated future scenarios by comparing the ranking of key sources of uncertainty in model outputs. Three sampling-based methods are employed: Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), Tree-Structured Density Estimation (TSDE), and Uniform Covering by Probabilistic Rejection (UCPR). RSA and TSDE are tested for identifying and ranking the key factors that influence ecological behavior in Lake Oglethorpe, Georgia, and UCPR, for recovering parameters of a rainfall-runoff model of an experimental watershed near Loch Ard, Scotland. The framework is applied to an integrated assessment of ecological behavior in Lake Lanier, Georgia. Stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir are elicited and encoded for analysis. The results indicate: (i) that the desired future is more reachable, and accompanied by more significant structural change, than the feared future, and (ii) that sediment-water-nutrient interactions, secondary production, and microbial processes play a critical role in the future ecological behavior of the reservoir. Thus, it is possible to: (i) confirm or refute stakeholder concerns for the future environment, (ii) inform priorities for future environmental policy actions, (iii) identify critical gaps in current knowledge, in order to prioritize future scientific research, and (iv) promote adaptive community learning, through the continual mutual feedback between scenario-generation and systematic analysis. By bridging the gap between stakeholder imagination and scientific theory, through computational analysis, the framework provides a promising direction for integrated environmental assessment.

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis in Practice written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-07-16 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 858 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Books In Print 2004 2005 written by Ed Bowker Staff and published by R. R. Bowker. This book was released on 2004 with total page 3274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forthcoming Books written by Rose Arny and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 1756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Advancing Land Change Modeling written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

Download or read book Understanding Structural Engineering written by Wai-Fah Chen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-05-24 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In our world of seemingly unlimited computing, numerous analytical approaches to the estimation of stress, strain, and displacement-including analytical, numerical, physical, and analog techniques-have greatly advanced the practice of engineering. Combining theory and experimentation, computer simulation has emerged as a third path for engineering

Download or read book Biomedical Image Synthesis and Simulation written by Ninon Burgos and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2022-06-18 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Biomedical Image Synthesis and Simulation: Methods and Applications presents the basic concepts and applications in image-based simulation and synthesis used in medical and biomedical imaging. The first part of the book introduces and describes the simulation and synthesis methods that were developed and successfully used within the last twenty years, from parametric to deep generative models. The second part gives examples of successful applications of these methods. Both parts together form a book that gives the reader insight into the technical background of image synthesis and how it is used, in the particular disciplines of medical and biomedical imaging. The book ends with several perspectives on the best practices to adopt when validating image synthesis approaches, the crucial role that uncertainty quantification plays in medical image synthesis, and research directions that should be worth exploring in the future. - Gives state-of-the-art methods in (bio)medical image synthesis - Explains the principles (background) of image synthesis methods - Presents the main applications of biomedical image synthesis methods

Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1970-12 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.

Download or read book Interior Environment and Related Agencies Appropriations for 2008 Part 2 110 1 Hearings written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 2066 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 1076 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Geologic Mapping for Environmental Purposes written by Harry Francis Ferguson and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Interior Environment and Related Agencies Appropriations for 2008 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 2098 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Popular Mechanics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000-01 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Popular Mechanics inspires, instructs and influences readers to help them master the modern world. Whether it’s practical DIY home-improvement tips, gadgets and digital technology, information on the newest cars or the latest breakthroughs in science -- PM is the ultimate guide to our high-tech lifestyle.

Download or read book Global Environmental Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global environmental change often seems to be the most carefully examined issue of our time. Yet understanding the human sideâ€"human causes of and responses to environmental changeâ€"has not yet received sustained attention. Global Environmental Change offers a strategy for combining the efforts of natural and social scientists to better understand how our actions influence global change and how global change influences us. The volume is accessible to the nonscientist and provides a wide range of examples and case studies. It explores how the attitudes and actions of individuals, governments, and organizations intertwine to leave their mark on the health of the planet. The book focuses on establishing a framework for this new field of study, identifying problems that must be overcome if we are to deepen our understanding of the human dimensions of global change, presenting conclusions and recommendations.

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.