Download or read book Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios -- internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population -- to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.
Download or read book Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.
Download or read book A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress a Case Study in Asia written by Charles Fant and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in how these factors change in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios -- internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population -- to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. If socio-economic growth is unconstrained by global actions to limit greenhouse gas concentrations, water-stressed populations may increase from about 800 million to 1.7 billion in this region.
Download or read book The Future Water Risks Under Global Change in Southern and Eastern Asia written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding and predicting the future vulnerability of freshwater resources is a major challenge with important societal implications. Many studies have identified Asia as a hotspot of severe water stress in the coming decades, and also highlighted the large uncertainty associated with water resource assessment based on limited multi-model projections. Here we provide a more comprehensive risk-based assessment of water use and availability in response to future climate change, socioeconomic growth, and their combination in Southern and Eastern Asia. We employ a large ensemble of scenarios that capture the spectrum of regional climate response as well as a range of economic projections and climate policies in a consistent, integrated modeling framework. We show that economic growth increases water stress ubiquitously. The climate-only and combined climate-growth effects on water stress remain largely negative in China and Indus Basin, but largely positive in India, Indochina, and Ganges Basin. However, climate poses substantially large uncertainty in water stress changes than socioeconomic growth. By 2050, socioeconomic growth alone can lead to an additional 650 million people living under at least “heavy” water stress, with most of these located in India, Indus Basin, and China. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and climate change reduce people under water stress to an additional 200 million, attributed mainly to the beneficial climate in India that moves its heavily-stressed condition into the slightly or moderately‐stressed conditions. These 200 million people primarily reside in Indus Basin and China under at least overly exploited water conditions— where total water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. Climate mitigation helps alleviating the risks of increasing water scarcity by mid-century, but to a limited extent. Therefore, adaptive measures need to be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls, or a combination of both approaches may be most effective..
Download or read book World Water Resources at the Beginning of the Twenty First Century written by I. A. Shiklomanov and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern assessment of the state of the world's water resources for researchers and policy-makers.
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Download or read book Taking Into Account Environmental Water Requirements in Global scale Water Resources Assessments written by Vladimir Smakhtin and published by IWMI. This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis CRIDA written by Mendoza, Guillermo and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Science for Serving Society written by Ghassem R. Asrar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-18 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a comprehensive survey and a close analysis of efforts to develop actionable climate information in support of vital decisions for climate adaptation, risk management and policy. Arising from submissions and discussion at the 2011 Open Science Conference (OSC) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the book addresses research and intellectual challenges which span the full range of Program activities.
Download or read book The Future of Global Water Stress written by C. Adam Schlosser and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions -- where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.
Download or read book A stress test for climate change impacts on water security written by UNESCO and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Pathways to Water Sustainability written by David E. McNabb and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates the current and future state of freshwater and the global drive to achieve the UN sustainability goal. It first explores the major barriers to achieving the goal and then examines some of the programs water managers are adopting to overcome those barriers. These programs include finding new ways to supplement existing water supplies, and greater acceptance of alternative supplies, such as recycled waste water and desalination; green infrastructures, and rain and storm water harvesting. It concludes with two chapters on water management tools, including asset management and strategic planning, which are of particular interest to small water and wastewater utilities.
Download or read book Climate Change and Water written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Working Group Technical Support Unit and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Technical Paper addresses the issue of freshwater. Sealevel rise is dealt with only insofar as it can lead to impacts on freshwater in coastal areas and beyond. Climate, freshwater, biophysical and socio-economic systems are interconnected in complex ways. Hence, a change in any one of these can induce a change in any other. Freshwater-related issues are critical in determining key regional and sectoral vulnerabilities. Therefore, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. -- page vii.
Download or read book Transboundary Water Politics in the Developing World written by Naho Mirumachi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-05 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the political economy that governs the management of international transboundary river basins in the developing world. These shared rivers are the setting for irrigation, hydropower and flood management projects as well as water transfer schemes. Often, these projects attempt to engineer the river basin with deep political, socio-economic and environmental implications. The politics of transboundary river basin management sheds light on the challenges concerning sustainable development, water allocation and utilization between sovereign states. Advancing conceptual thinking beyond simplistic analyses of river basins in conflict or cooperation, the author proposes a new analytical framework. The Transboundary Waters Interaction NexuS (TWINS) examines the coexistence of conflict and cooperation in riparian interaction. This framework highlights the importance of power relations between basin states that determine negotiation processes and institutions of water resources management. The analysis illustrates the way river basin management is framed by powerful elite decision-makers, combined with geopolitical factors and geographical imaginations. In addition, the book explains how national development strategies and water resources demands have a significant role in shaping the intensities of conflict and cooperation at the international level. The book draws on detailed case studies from the Ganges River basin in South Asia, the Orange–Senqu River basin in Southern Africa and the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia, providing key insights on equity and power asymmetry applicable to other basins in the developing world.
Download or read book Climate Change Water and Food Security written by Hugh Turral and published by Fao. This book was released on 2011 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rural poor, who are the most vulnerable, are likely to be disproportionately affected.
Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
