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Book Probability of Infestation and Extent of Mortality Models for Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests in Colorado

Download or read book Probability of Infestation and Extent of Mortality Models for Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests in Colorado written by José F. Negrón and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a significant agent of tree mortality in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) forests throughout western North America. A large outbreak of mountain pine beetle caused extensive tree mortality in north-central Colorado beginning in the late 1990s. We use data from a network of plots established in 2006-2007 on the Sulphur Ranger District of the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests to develop simple probability of infestation and extent of mortality models using classification and regression trees, respectively. A classification tree indicated that when live lodgepole pine basal area was equal to or greater than 59.3 ft2/acre pre-outbreak, the probability of infestation increased. A second classification tree added lodgepole pine mean diameter as a second splitting variable. The rate of correct classification for both models was greater than 0.79. Two regression trees also used live pre-outbreak lodgepole pine basal area as a splitting variable and indicated increasing basal area killed with increasing live lodgepole pine basal area. These simple models use readily available data from forest inventories and can be used to identify stands, based on forest stand conditions, where mountain pine beetle is more likely to occur and the potential extent of lodgepole pine tree mortality should an outbreak occur.

Book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests

Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests

Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Gene D. Amman and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Preliminary Risk Rating for Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation of Lodgepole Pine Forests Over Large Areas with Ordinal Regression Modelling

Download or read book Preliminary Risk Rating for Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation of Lodgepole Pine Forests Over Large Areas with Ordinal Regression Modelling written by Colin Robertson and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In western Canada, the operational risk rating system for mountain pine beetle is based on biological knowledge gained from a rich legacy of stand-scale field studies. Owing to the large spatial and temporal extents of the current epidemic, new research into large-area mountain pine beetle processes has revealed further insights into the landscape-scale characteristics of beetle infested forests. This research evaluates the potential for this new knowledge to augment an established system for rating the short-term risk of tree mortality in a stand due to mountain pine beetle.--Publisher's website.

Book Evolution of a Research Prototype Expert System for Endemic Populations of Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests

Download or read book Evolution of a Research Prototype Expert System for Endemic Populations of Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Dale L. Bartos and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in a Spatially Explicit Framework

Download or read book Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in a Spatially Explicit Framework written by Michele Susan Buonanduci and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are key natural disturbances that shape the structure and function of conifer forests across the northern hemisphere. While drivers of bark beetle outbreaks have been studied extensively at spatial scales ranging from stands to continents, within-stand processes driving individual tree mortality in an outbreak are less well understood. Here we use a spatially explicit long-term monitoring dataset of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest impacted by a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak to explore interactions among fine-scale drivers of beetle-caused tree mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling approach, we evaluated whether and how within-stand neighborhood structure and topographic setting interact with tree size to mediate tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains (USA). We found evidence that both tree growth rate preceding the outbreak and stand structure around the host tree mediated the effect of tree size. However, we did not find evidence that topographic position within a stand mediated the effect of tree size. Mortality probability increased with pre-outbreak growth rate for small to medium sized trees (~10-25 centimeters diameter), but that same effect could not be detected for larger trees. Conversely, mortality probability increased with greater neighborhood density across tree sizes, with the most pronounced effects for medium to large sized trees (~15-30 centimeters diameter). Within-stand topographic variability was not an important predictor of mortality probability; among stands, however, the driest stand conditions experienced the greatest overall mortality. By explicitly considering how natural within-stand heterogeneity mediates individual tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak, our findings bridge an important gap in understanding multi-scale drivers of disturbance dynamics. Identifying factors influencing individual tree mortality in these systems informs our understanding of both the structural development of forest stands and reciprocal feedbacks between stand structure and outbreak dynamics.

Book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests

Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Ponderosa Pine Mortality Resulting from a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Download or read book Ponderosa Pine Mortality Resulting from a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak written by William F. McCambridge and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1965 to 1978, mountain pine beetles killed 25% of the pines taller than 4.5 feet in a study area in north-central Colorado. Average basal area was reduced from 92 to 58 square feet per acre. Mortality increased with tree diameter up to about 9 inches d.b.h. Larger trees appeared to be killed at random. Mortality was directly related to number of trees per acre and presence of dwarf mistletoe, but not to site index, elevation, and percent Douglas-fir in the stand.

Book Some Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation Characteristics in Dwarf Mistletoe infected and Uninfected Ponderosa Pine

Download or read book Some Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation Characteristics in Dwarf Mistletoe infected and Uninfected Ponderosa Pine written by William F. McCambridge and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 2 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Mountain Pine Beetle Attack in Ponderosa Pine Comparing Methods for Rating Susceptibility

Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Attack in Ponderosa Pine Comparing Methods for Rating Susceptibility written by David C. Chojnacky and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two empirical methods for rating susceptibility of mountain pine beetle attack in ponderosa pine were evaluated. The methods were compared to stand data modeled to objectively rate each sampled stand for susceptibly to bark-beetle attack. Data on bark-beetle attacks, from a survey of 45 sites throughout the Colorado Plateau, were modeled using logistic regression to estimate the probability of attack on individual trees from tree and stand variables. The logistic model allowed flexibility to easily scale results up to a stand level for comparison to the empirical methods. The empirical method, developed by Munson and Anhold, most closely correlated to the logistic regression results. However, the Munson/Anhold method rated all 45 study sites as either moderately or highly susceptible to bark-beetle attack, which raises concern about its lack of sensitivity. Future work on evaluating risk of bark-beetle impact should consider more than stand characteristics.