Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Download or read book Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-13 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

Download or read book Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science written by Pieter Kubben and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-21 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book comprehensively covers the fundamentals of clinical data science, focusing on data collection, modelling and clinical applications. Topics covered in the first section on data collection include: data sources, data at scale (big data), data stewardship (FAIR data) and related privacy concerns. Aspects of predictive modelling using techniques such as classification, regression or clustering, and prediction model validation will be covered in the second section. The third section covers aspects of (mobile) clinical decision support systems, operational excellence and value-based healthcare. Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science is an essential resource for healthcare professionals and IT consultants intending to develop and refine their skills in personalized medicine, using solutions based on large datasets from electronic health records or telemonitoring programmes. The book’s promise is “no math, no code”and will explain the topics in a style that is optimized for a healthcare audience.

Download or read book Feature Engineering and Selection written by Max Kuhn and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of developing predictive models includes many stages. Most resources focus on the modeling algorithms but neglect other critical aspects of the modeling process. This book describes techniques for finding the best representations of predictors for modeling and for nding the best subset of predictors for improving model performance. A variety of example data sets are used to illustrate the techniques along with R programs for reproducing the results.

Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Download or read book Principles of Data Mining written by David J. Hand and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-17 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first truly interdisciplinary text on data mining, blending the contributions of information science, computer science, and statistics. The growing interest in data mining is motivated by a common problem across disciplines: how does one store, access, model, and ultimately describe and understand very large data sets? Historically, different aspects of data mining have been addressed independently by different disciplines. This is the first truly interdisciplinary text on data mining, blending the contributions of information science, computer science, and statistics. The book consists of three sections. The first, foundations, provides a tutorial overview of the principles underlying data mining algorithms and their application. The presentation emphasizes intuition rather than rigor. The second section, data mining algorithms, shows how algorithms are constructed to solve specific problems in a principled manner. The algorithms covered include trees and rules for classification and regression, association rules, belief networks, classical statistical models, nonlinear models such as neural networks, and local "memory-based" models. The third section shows how all of the preceding analysis fits together when applied to real-world data mining problems. Topics include the role of metadata, how to handle missing data, and data preprocessing.

Download or read book Applied Predictive Modeling written by Max Kuhn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-17 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.

Download or read book Principles and Techniques for Prediction written by R. S. Chillar and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-01-29 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the beginning of the historical age, evidenced by cave arts, ancient scriptures, popular myths, customs and study of ruins and monuments, humans have shown an intense desire to peek into the "non evident" universe. Mere acknowledgement of this fact compels us to agree that we as species have a strong intuitive agreement to the concept of existence of a parallel universe or another dimension not perceived through normal senses clouded by overindulgence and overinvestment in learning and practicing survival skills of the physical world. Whether backed by the results of a "double blind, placebo controlled, randomised studies," a hallmark of the objective modern sciences, or not, human brain is wired and tempted to believe on the faintest and the earliest sign of the existence of the so called supernatural. Quantum of Likes and views of videos on youtube tagged with "Supernatural" are a self explanatory proof of this. Authors are of the opinion that supernatural exists and flourishes only and ONLY in ignorance. More you seek, less is miraculous and supernatural around you. Astrology is one such logical way to dispel the cloud of supernatural from consciousness. Astrological sciences, developed by different civilizations and societies have many things in common. Apart from stellar positions and zodiac signs and houses, relying on objectivity has been one of the most important variables to predict accuracy of a system. Jyotish or Hindu system of Astrology, too depends upon such mathematical calculations, though many astrologers boast of an intuitive or "gut feeling" of an event in the life of someone being discussed. However, they fail to understand that such feeling can't come without a sincere hard work of years together on understanding and practicing a system. Then such intuition is not sixth sense, but a result end of background calculations done by the developed subconscious which both client and the astrologer are not aware of. The present book is attempted to present such principles and techniques to an inquisitive reader or a beginner in the field of the divine science, astrology. Although the dogma of astrology does not allow us to go beyond such principles, but I am sure, readers will be tempted to experiment with their automatic founded principles, they will develop easily after a practice of a couple of months with such established principles. Authors don't find any harm in doing so, as the real knowledge comes not only by cramming and following the fixed principles, but in experimenting with something which only comes as a subjective conclusion in a researcher's conscious mind.

Download or read book Prediction Learning and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

Download or read book Probabilistic Graphical Models written by Daphne Koller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-07-31 with total page 1270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

Download or read book Annual Predictive Techniques of the Greek Arabic and Indian Astrologers written by Martin Gansten and published by The Wessex Astrologer. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictions for each year of life go back to the earliest times of Hellenistic astrology. Elaborated by Persian and Arabic astrologers who emphasized the revolution of the nativity, known today as the solar return chart, annual predictive techniques then spread eastward into India and westward into Latin Europe during the Middle Ages. For the first time, this book draws together material on annual predictions from ancient and medieval authors writing in Greek, Arabic and Sanskrit, demonstrating their methods with a wealth of present-day example charts.While covering historical background and principles of interpretation, Annual Predictive Techniques is above all a manual of practical astrology, a guide to concrete prediction intended for intermediate students. Separate chapters are devoted to illustrating the use of primary directions and profections together with anniversary transits. The reader is then shown how to integrate these techniques step by step with the solar return chart. The final chapter discusses ways of subdividing a year and identifying times of major importance.

Download or read book Prediction of Protein Structure and the Principles of Protein Conformation written by G.D. Fasman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The prediction of the conformation of proteins has developed from an intellectual exercise into a serious practical endeavor that has great promise to yield new stable enzymes, products of pharmacological significance, and catalysts of great potential. With the application of predic tion gaining momentum in various fields, such as enzymology and immunology, it was deemed time that a volume be published to make available a thorough evaluation of present methods, for researchers in this field to expound fully the virtues of various algorithms, to open the field to a wider audience, and to offer the scientific public an opportunity to examine carefully its successes and failures. In this manner the practitioners of the art could better evaluate the tools and the output so that their expectations and applications could be more realistic. The editor has assembled chapters by many of the main contributors to this area and simultaneously placed their programs at three national resources so that they are readily available to those who wish to apply them to their personal interests. These algorithms, written by their originators, when utilized on pes or larger computers, can instantaneously take a primary amino acid sequence and produce a two-or three-dimensional artistic image that gives satisfaction to one's esthetic sensibilities and food for thought concerning the structure and function of proteins. It is in this spirit that this volume was envisaged.

Download or read book Principles of Data Science written by Sinan Ozdemir and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2016-12-16 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn the techniques and math you need to start making sense of your data About This Book Enhance your knowledge of coding with data science theory for practical insight into data science and analysis More than just a math class, learn how to perform real-world data science tasks with R and Python Create actionable insights and transform raw data into tangible value Who This Book Is For You should be fairly well acquainted with basic algebra and should feel comfortable reading snippets of R/Python as well as pseudo code. You should have the urge to learn and apply the techniques put forth in this book on either your own data sets or those provided to you. If you have the basic math skills but want to apply them in data science or you have good programming skills but lack math, then this book is for you. What You Will Learn Get to know the five most important steps of data science Use your data intelligently and learn how to handle it with care Bridge the gap between mathematics and programming Learn about probability, calculus, and how to use statistical models to control and clean your data and drive actionable results Build and evaluate baseline machine learning models Explore the most effective metrics to determine the success of your machine learning models Create data visualizations that communicate actionable insights Read and apply machine learning concepts to your problems and make actual predictions In Detail Need to turn your skills at programming into effective data science skills? Principles of Data Science is created to help you join the dots between mathematics, programming, and business analysis. With this book, you'll feel confident about asking—and answering—complex and sophisticated questions of your data to move from abstract and raw statistics to actionable ideas. With a unique approach that bridges the gap between mathematics and computer science, this books takes you through the entire data science pipeline. Beginning with cleaning and preparing data, and effective data mining strategies and techniques, you'll move on to build a comprehensive picture of how every piece of the data science puzzle fits together. Learn the fundamentals of computational mathematics and statistics, as well as some pseudocode being used today by data scientists and analysts. You'll get to grips with machine learning, discover the statistical models that help you take control and navigate even the densest datasets, and find out how to create powerful visualizations that communicate what your data means. Style and approach This is an easy-to-understand and accessible tutorial. It is a step-by-step guide with use cases, examples, and illustrations to get you well-versed with the concepts of data science. Along with explaining the fundamentals, the book will also introduce you to slightly advanced concepts later on and will help you implement these techniques in the real world.

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Disease Prediction Through Data Analytics and Machine Learning written by Rani, Geeta and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-10-16 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By applying data analytics techniques and machine learning algorithms to predict disease, medical practitioners can more accurately diagnose and treat patients. However, researchers face problems in identifying suitable algorithms for pre-processing, transformations, and the integration of clinical data in a single module, as well as seeking different ways to build and evaluate models. The Handbook of Research on Disease Prediction Through Data Analytics and Machine Learning is a pivotal reference source that explores the application of algorithms to making disease predictions through the identification of symptoms and information retrieval from images such as MRIs, ECGs, EEGs, etc. Highlighting a wide range of topics including clinical decision support systems, biomedical image analysis, and prediction models, this book is ideally designed for clinicians, physicians, programmers, computer engineers, IT specialists, data analysts, hospital administrators, researchers, academicians, and graduate and post-graduate students.