Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Download or read book Handbook of Multi Commodity Markets and Products written by Andrea Roncoroni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 1067 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and ProductsOver recent decades, the marketplace has seen an increasing integration, not only among different types of commodity markets such as energy, agricultural, and metals, but also with financial markets. This trend raises important questions about how to identify and analyse opportunities in and manage risks of commodity products. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers traders, commodity brokers, and other professionals a practical and comprehensive manual that covers market structure and functioning, as well as the practice of trading across a wide range of commodity markets and products. Written in non-technical language, this important resource includes the information needed to begin to master the complexities of and to operate successfully in today’s challenging and fluctuating commodity marketplace. Designed as a practical practitioner-orientated resource, the book includes a detailed overview of key markets – oil, coal, electricity, emissions, weather, industrial metals, freight, agricultural and foreign exchange – and contains a set of tools for analysing, pricing and managing risk for the individual markets. Market features and the main functioning rules of the markets in question are presented, along with the structure of basic financial products and standardised deals. A range of vital topics such as stochastic and econometric modelling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, as well as risk assessment and management are presented and discussed in detail with illustrative examples to commodity markets. The authors showcase how to structure and manage both simple and more complex multi-commodity deals. Addressing the issues of profit-making and risk management, the book reveals how to exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies on a diversified set of commodity prices. In addition, the book explores how to price energy products and other commodities belonging to markets segmented across specific structural features. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products includes a wealth of proven methods and useful models that can be selected and developed in order to make appropriate estimations of the future evolution of prices and appropriate valuations of products. The authors additionally explore market risk issues and what measures of risk should be adopted for the purpose of accurately assessing exposure from multi-commodity portfolios. This vital resource offers the models, tools, strategies and general information commodity brokers and other professionals need to succeed in today’s highly competitive marketplace.

Download or read book Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets written by Viviana Fanelli and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-01-14 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Modelling in Commodity Markets provides a basic and self-contained introduction to the ideas underpinning financial modelling of products in commodity markets. The book offers a concise and operational vision of the main models used to represent, assess and simulate real assets and financial positions related to the commodity markets. It discusses statistical and mathematical tools important for estimating, implementing and calibrating quantitative models used for pricing and trading commodity-linked products and for managing basic and complex portfolio risks. Key features: Provides a step-by-step guide to the construction of pricing models, and for the applications of such models for the analysis of real data Written for scholars from a wide range of scientific fields, including economics and finance, mathematics, engineering and statistics, as well as for practitioners Illustrates some important pricing models using real data sets that will be commonly used in financial markets

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Download or read book Primary Commodity Markets and Models written by Walter C. Labys and published by Gower Publishing Company, Limited. This book was released on 1987 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Energy Transition Metals written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Download or read book Commodities and Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-24 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV

Download or read book Currencies Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.

Download or read book Financial Markets for Commodities written by Joel Priolon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-01-03 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agricultural, energy or mineral commodities are traded internationally in two market categories: physical markets and financial markets. More specifically, on the financial markets, contracts are negotiated, the price of which depends on the price of a commodity. These contracts are called derivatives (futures, options contracts, swaps). This book presents, on the one hand, the characteristics of these derivatives and the markets on which they are traded and, on the other hand, those transactions that typically combine an action on the physical market and a transaction on the corresponding financial market. The understanding of commodity financial markets mainly relies on the resources of economic analysis, especially the financial economy, because the use of this discipline is essential to understanding the major operations that are conducted daily by the operators of these markets: traders, producers, processors, financiers.

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Download or read book Income Versus Prices How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food In Security written by Mr. Christian Bogmans and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-24 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.

Download or read book Risk Management in Commodity Markets written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-22 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities represent today the fastest growing markets worldwide. Historically misunderstood, generally under- studied and under- valued, certainly under- represented in the literature, commodities are suddenly receiving the attention they deserve. Bringing together some of the best authors in the field, this book focuses on the risk management issues associated with both soft and hard commodities: energy, weather, agriculturals, metals and shipping. Taking the reader through every part of the commodities markets, the authors discuss the intricacies of modelling spot and forward prices, as well as the design of new Futures markets. The book also looks at the use of options and other derivative contract forms for hedging purposes, as well as supply management in commodity markets. It looks at the implications for climate policy and climate research and analyzes the various freight derivatives markets and products used to manage shipping and freight risk in a global commodity world. It is required reading for energy and mining companies, utilities’ practitioners, commodity and cash derivatives traders in investment banks, CTA’s and hedge funds

Download or read book Quantitative Energy Finance written by Fred Espen Benth and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-08-28 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance and energy markets have been an active scientific field for some time, even though the development and applications of sophisticated quantitative methods in these areas are relatively new—and referred to in a broader context as energy finance. Energy finance is often viewed as a branch of mathematical finance, yet this area continues to provide a rich source of issues that are fuelling new and exciting research developments. Based on a special thematic year at the Wolfgang Pauli Institute (WPI) in Vienna, Austria, this edited collection features cutting-edge research from leading scientists in the fields of energy and commodity finance. Topics discussed include modeling and analysis of energy and commodity markets, derivatives hedging and pricing, and optimal investment strategies and modeling of emerging markets, such as power and emissions. The book also confronts the challenges one faces in energy markets from a quantitative point of view, as well as the recent advances in solving these problems using advanced mathematical, statistical and numerical methods. By addressing the emerging area of quantitative energy finance, this volume will serve as a valuable resource for graduate-level students and researchers studying financial mathematics, risk management, or energy finance.

Download or read book Commodity Derivatives written by Neil C. Schofield and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity Derivatives In the newly revised Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications, expert trading educator and author Neil Schofield delivers a comprehensive overview of a wide variety of commodities and derivatives. Beginning with discussions of commodity markets generally before moving on to derivative valuation and risk management, the author then dives into individual commodity markets, like gold, base metals, crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and more. Schofield relies on his extensive experience at Barclays Investment Bank to offer readers detailed examinations of commodity finance and the use of commodities within a wider investment portfolio. The second edition includes discussions of critical new topics like dual curve swap valuation, option valuation within a negative price environment using the Bachelier model, volatility skews, smiles, smirks, term structures for major commodities, and more. You’ll find case studies on corporate failures linked to improper commodity risk management, as well as explorations of issues like the impact of growing interest in electric vehicles on commodity markets. The text of the original edition has been updated and expanded and new example transactions are included to help the reader understand the concepts discussed within. Each chapter follows a uniform structure, with typical demand and supply patterns following a non-technical description of the commodity at issue. Discussions of the physical markets in each commodity and the main exchange-traded and over-the-counter products conclude each chapter. Perfect for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers, the Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications will also earn a place in the libraries of students and academics studying finance and the graduate intake in financial institutions. A one-stop resource for the main commodity markets and their associated derivatives Finance professionals seeking a single volume that fully describes the major commodity markets and their derivatives will find everything they need in the latest edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications. Former Global Head of Financial Markets Training at Barclays Investment Bank Neil Schofield delivers a rigorous and authoritative reference on a crucial, but often overlooked, subject. Completely revised and greatly expanded, the Second Edition of this essential text offers finance professionals and students coverage on every major class of commodities, including gold, steel, ethanol, crude oil, and more. You’ll also find discussions of derivative valuation, risk management, commodity finance, and the use of commodities within an investment portfolio. Non-technical descriptions of major commodity classes ensure the material is accessible to everyone while still in-depth and rigorous enough to deliver key information on an area central to global finance. Ideal for students and academics in finance, Commodity Derivatives is an indispensable guide for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers who seek a one-volume resource on foundational and advanced topics in commodity markets and their associated derivatives.

Download or read book Global Commodities written by Murad Harasheh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-04 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many academics, students, and professionals, the field of commodities is a black box. This book explores commodities in a holistic manner, presenting concepts from a multidisciplinary business and financial perspective, and offering a panoramic view of the global commodity business and markets. In this book, the author presents core issues related to global commodities with recent data including COVID-19. The book introduces the key physical commodities traded globally and some related issues such as the global supply chain, global trading, transportation, storage, and how to finance global commodity trades. Then, it discusses how global commodity businesses and traders manage global risks related to commodity production (generation or extraction), transportation, storage, the final delivery, and currency exchange. Additionally, the book discusses financial commodities, the origins of global commodity derivatives and exchanges, the rationale behind the birth of commodity futures and trading, hedging, speculation, financialization, and manipulation of commodity markets, and how financial trading is executed in real life. In the last section, the author also discusses sustainability issues related to global commodities and the financial valuation aspects of the global commodity businesses supported by examples from real cases with recent data.

Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.