Download or read book Predictions of Extreme Events in Nature and Society written by Vladimir Keilis-Borok and published by . This book was released on 2023-05-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: V. I. Keilis-Borok (1921-2013) is one of the founders of computational seismology and mathematical geophysics and a pioneer in advance predictions of extreme events in complex systems, including earthquakes, economic recessions, outcomes of elections, surges of unemployment, and crime waves. This book overviews over fifty years of work by V. I. Keilis-Borok and his group on developing successful algorithms for prediction of extreme events in nature and society. This edition contains the original text by V. I. Keilis-Borok, but excludes key preprints that can be found in the expanded hardcover edition.
Download or read book Prediction of Extreme Events in Nature and Society written by Vladimir I Keilis-Borok and published by . This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: V. I. Keilis-Borok (1921-2013) is one of the founders of computational seismology and mathematical geophysics and a pioneer in advance predictions of extreme events in complex systems, including earthquakes, economic recessions, outcomes of elections, surges of unemployment, and crime waves. This book overviews over fifty years of work by V. I. Keilis-Borok and his group on developing successful algorithms for prediction of extreme events in nature and society.
Download or read book Extreme Events in Nature and Society written by Sergio Albeverio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-18 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.
Download or read book Extreme Events in Nature and Society written by Sergio Albeverio and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. This book aims to help in the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it.
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Download or read book Extreme Events written by Mario Chavez and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences. This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve: (i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
Download or read book Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems written by Valerio Lucarini and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-04-04 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a team of international experts, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems presents a unique point of view on the mathematical theory of extremes and on its applications in the natural and social sciences. Featuring an interdisciplinary approach to new concepts in pure and applied mathematical research, the book skillfully combines the areas of statistical mechanics, probability theory, measure theory, dynamical systems, statistical inference, geophysics, and software application. Emphasizing the statistical mechanical point of view, the book introduces robust theoretical embedding for the application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems. Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems also features: • A careful examination of how a dynamical system can serve as a generator of stochastic processes • Discussions on the applications of statistical inference in the theoretical and heuristic use of extremes • Several examples of analysis of extremes in a physical and geophysical context • A final summary of the main results presented along with a guide to future research projects • An appendix with software in Matlab® programming language to help readers to develop further understanding of the presented concepts Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems is ideal for academics and practitioners in pure and applied mathematics, probability theory, statistics, chaos, theoretical and applied dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, geophysical fluid dynamics, geosciences and complexity science. VALERIO LUCARINI, PhD, is Professor of Theoretical Meteorology at the University of Hamburg, Germany and Professor of Statistical Mechanics at the University of Reading, UK. DAVIDE FARANDA, PhD, is Researcher at the Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, IPSL, CEA Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ANA CRISTINA GOMES MONTEIRO MOREIRA DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto, Portugal. JORGE MIGUEL MILHAZES DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Porto, Portugal. MARK HOLLAND, PhD, is Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics in the College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences at the University of Exeter, UK. TOBIAS KUNA, PhD, is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Reading, UK. MATTHEW NICOL, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Houston, USA. MIKE TODD, PhD, is Lecturer in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. SANDRO VAIENTI, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Toulon and Researcher at the Centre de Physique Théorique, France.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book A Safer Future written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.
Download or read book Climate and Social Stress written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Download or read book Reproducibility written by Harald Atmanspacher and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-07-05 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 2017 PROSE Award Honorable Mention The PROSE Awards draw attention to pioneering works of research and for contributions to the conception, production, and design of landmark works in their fields. Featuring peer-reviewed contributions from noted experts in their fields of research, Reproducibility: Principles, Problems, Practices, and Prospects presents state-of-the-art approaches to reproducibility, the gold standard of sound science, from multi- and interdisciplinary perspectives. Including comprehensive coverage for implementing and reflecting the norm of reproducibility in various pertinent fields of research, the book focuses on how the reproducibility of results is applied, how it may be limited, and how such limitations can be understood or even controlled in the natural sciences, computational sciences, life sciences, social sciences, and studies of science and technology. The book presents many chapters devoted to a variety of methods and techniques, as well as their epistemic and ontological underpinnings, which have been developed to safeguard reproducible research and curtail deficits and failures. The book also investigates the political, historical, and social practices that underlie reproducible research in contemporary science studies, including the difficulties of good scientific practice and the ethos of reproducibility in modern innovation societies. Reproducibility: Principles, Problems, Practices, and Prospects is a guide for researchers who are interested in the general and overarching questions behind the concept of reproducibility; for active scientists who are confronted with practical reproducibility problems in their everyday work; and for economic stakeholders and political decision makers who need to better understand the challenges of reproducibility. In addition, the book is a useful in-depth primer for undergraduate and graduate-level courses in scientific methodology and basic issues in the philosophy and sociology of science from a modern perspective. “A comprehensive, insightful treatment of the reproducibility challenges facing science today and of ways in which the scientific community can address them.” Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor of Communication, University of Pennsylvania “How can we make sure that reproducible research remains a key imperative of scientific communication under increasing commercialization, media attention, and publication pressure? This handbook offers the first interdisciplinary and fundamental treatment of this important question.”Torsten Hothorn, Professor of Biostatistics, University of Zurich Harald Atmanspacher, PhD, is Associate Fellow and staff member at Collegium Helveticum, ETH and University Zurich and is also President of the Society for Mind-Matter Research. He has pioneered advances in complex dynamical systems research and in a number of topics concerned with the relation between the mental and physical. Sabine Maasen, PhD, is Professor for Sociology of Science and Director of the Munich Center for Technology in Society (TU Munich) and Associate Fellow at Collegium Helveticum (ETH and University Zurich). Her research focuses on the interface of science, technology, and society, notably with respect to neuroscience and its applications.
Download or read book Climate Extremes and Society written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-30 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme climatic events present society with significant challenges in a rapidly warming world. Ordinary citizens, the insurance industry and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts. Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors. The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond to climate variability. It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society. How have these extremes varied in the past, and how might they change in the future? What type of efforts will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes? The book is designed for all policy-makers, engineers and scientists who have an interest in the effects of climate extremes on society.
Download or read book Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability written by Assefa M. Melesse and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book The End of Nature written by Bill McKibben and published by Random House. This book was released on 2014-09-03 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reissued on the tenth anniversary of its publication, this classic work on our environmental crisis features a new introduction by the author, reviewing both the progress and ground lost in the fight to save the earth. This impassioned plea for radical and life-renewing change is today still considered a groundbreaking work in environmental studies. McKibben's argument that the survival of the globe is dependent on a fundamental, philosophical shift in the way we relate to nature is more relevant than ever. McKibben writes of our earth's environmental cataclysm, addressing such core issues as the greenhouse effect, acid rain, and the depletion of the ozone layer. His new introduction addresses some of the latest environmental issues that have risen during the 1990s. The book also includes an invaluable new appendix of facts and figures that surveys the progress of the environmental movement. More than simply a handbook for survival or a doomsday catalog of scientific prediction, this classic, soulful lament on Nature is required reading for nature enthusiasts, activists, and concerned citizens alike.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book The 2030 Spike written by Colin Mason and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.
