Download or read book Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Download or read book Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Download or read book Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Download or read book Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Francis Vitek and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-30 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
Download or read book Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF written by James M. Boughton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1984 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The GVAR Handbook written by Filippo di Mauro and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-02-28 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GVAR is a Global Vector Auto-Regression model of the global economy. Its main feature is to take into account the financial and real linkages connecting the major world economies. This book provides an overview of the GVAR and its applications: forecasting, finance issues, and regional studies.
Download or read book The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy Two volume set written by Kenneth A. Reinert and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-02 with total page 1329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential reference to all facets of the world economy Increasing economic globalization has made understanding the world economy more important than ever. From trade agreements to offshore outsourcing to foreign aid, this two-volume encyclopedia explains the key elements of the world economy and provides a first step to further research for students and scholars in public policy, international studies, business, and the broader social sciences, as well as for economic policy professionals. Written by an international team of contributors, this comprehensive reference includes more than 300 up-to-date entries covering a wide range of topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development. These topics include concepts and principles, models and theory, institutions and agreements, policies and instruments, analysis and tools, and sectors and special issues. Each entry includes cross-references and a list of sources for further reading and research. Complete with an index and a table of contents that groups entries by topic, The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy is an essential resource for anyone who needs to better understand the global economy. More than 300 alphabetically arranged articles on topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development International team of contributors Annotated list of further reading with each article Topical list of entries Full index and cross-references Entry categories and sample topics: Concepts and principles: globalization, anti-globalization, fair trade, foreign direct investment, international migration, economic development, multinational enterprises Models and theory: Heckscher-Ohlin model, internalization theory, New Trade Theory, North-South trade, Triffin dilemma Institutions and agreements: European Union, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, World Bank, Doha Round, international investment agreements Policies and instruments: dollar standard, international aid, sanctions, tariffs Analysis and tools: exchange rate forecasting, effective protection, monetary policy rules Sectors and special issues: child labor, corporate governance, the digital divide, health and globalization, illegal drugs trade, petroleum, steel
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Download or read book Some Thoughts on Making Long Term Forecasts for the World Economy written by Shahrokh Fardoust and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries and international organizations working on longer-range development issues depend on long-term quantitative projections and scenario analysis. Such forecasting has become increasingly challenging, thanks to the rapid pace of globalization, technological progress, the interplay among them, and enhanced connectivity among people. As a result, seemingly isolated events can quickly lead to wide-ranging and lasting regional or even global consequences. This paper examines the problem of long-term economic forecasting in the face of increased complexity and uncertainty. With the benefit of hindsight, it scrutinizes past long-term qualitative and quantitative projections for the 1990s in order to draw lessons on how an institution can and should conduct long-term forecasting and policy analysis. The main conclusions are that policy makers and researchers across the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they will face over the long term as economies and global linkages undergo major structural changes under conditions of considerable uncertainty and volatility. Global institutions need to have strong research programs that work in close collaboration with other international organizations, academic centers, and independent experts on important long-term development issues ("blue sky" issues) and megatrends. These institutions need to build on their comparative strengths and form teams of in-house researchers and global experts who work on state-of-the-art models related to globalization, technological progress and innovations, climate change, demographic shifts, population, and labor force quality and their policy implications at both the global and country levels. Researchers should be encouraged to consider how global challenges such as financial crises, climate change, and infectious diseases can lead to breaks in economic trends and regime change and how such breaks affect economic activity. Alternative scenarios need to be created that incorporate the views of contrarian forecasters, including forecasts of possible shocks.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
Download or read book Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning written by Carl Patton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-26 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.
Download or read book Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low Income Countries written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.
