Download or read book Optimal Portfolios for the Long Run written by David Blanchett and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is surprisingly little agreement among academics about the existence of time diversification, which we define as the anomaly where equities become less risky over longer investment periods. This study provides the most thorough analysis of time diversification conducted, using 113 years of historical data from 20 countries (over 2,000 years of total return data). We construct optimal portfolios for 20 different countries based on varying levels of investor risk aversion and time horizons using both overlapping and distinct historical time periods. We find strong historical evidence to support the notion that a higher allocation to equities is optimal for investors with longer time horizons, and that the time diversification effect is relatively consistent across countries and that it persists for different levels of risk aversion. We also note that the time diversification effect increased throughout the 20th century despite evidence of a declining risk premium. Although time diversification has been criticized as inconsistent with market efficiency, our empirical results suggest that the superior performance of equities over longer time horizons exists across global equity markets and time periods.
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Download or read book 1 N and Long Run Optimal Portfolios written by Carolina Fugazza and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to naive, equally weighted ones. However, existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has a one-month horizon and meanvariance preferences. In this paper, we examine whether their result holds for longer investment horizons, when the asset menu includes bonds and real estate beyond stocks and cash, and when the investor is characterized by constant relative risk aversion preferences which are not locally mean-variance for long horizons. Our experiments indicates that power utility investors with horizons of one year and longer would have on average benefited, ex-post, from an optimizing strategy that exploits simple linear predictability in asset returns over the period January 1995 - December 2007. This result is insensitive to the degree of risk aversion, to the number of predictors being included in the forecasting model, and to the deduction of transaction costs from measured portfolio performance.
Download or read book Equally Weighted Vs Long Run Optimal Portfolios written by Giovanna Nicodano and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Out-of-sample experiments cast doubt on the ability of portfolio optimizing strategies to outperform equally weighted portfolios, when investors have a 1-month time horizon. This paper examines whether this finding holds for longer investment horizons over which the optimizing strategy exploits linear predictability in returns. Our experiments indicate that investors with longer horizons on average would have benefited, ex post, from an optimizing strategy over the period 1995-2009. We analyze performance sensitivity to investor risk aversion, to the number of predictors included in the forecasting model and to the deduction of transaction costs from portfolio performance.
Download or read book Serial Correlation of Asset Returns and Optimal Portfolios for the Long and Short Term written by Stanley Fischer and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal portfolios differ according to the length of time they are held without being rebalanced. For the case in which asset returns are identically and independently distributed, it has been shown that optimal portfolios become less diversified as the holding period lengthens. We show that the anti-diversification result does not obtain when asset returns are serially correlated, and examine properties of asymptotic portfolios for the case where the short term interest rate, although known at each moment of time, may change unpredictably over time. The theoretical results provide no presumption about the effects of the length of the holding period on the optimal portfolio. Using estimated processes for stock and bill returns, we show that calculated optimal portfolios are virtually invariant to the length of the holding period. The estimated processes for asset returns also imply very little difference between portfolios calculated ignoring changes in the investment opportunity set and those obtained when the investment opportunity set changes over time.
Download or read book Efficient Asset Management written by Richard O. Michaud and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-03 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of theoretical benefits, Markowitz mean-variance (MV) optimized portfolios often fail to meet practical investment goals of marketability, usability, and performance, prompting many investors to seek simpler alternatives. Financial experts Richard and Robert Michaud demonstrate that the limitations of MV optimization are not the result of conceptual flaws in Markowitz theory but unrealistic representation of investment information. What is missing is a realistic treatment of estimation error in the optimization and rebalancing process. The text provides a non-technical review of classical Markowitz optimization and traditional objections. The authors demonstrate that in practice the single most important limitation of MV optimization is oversensitivity to estimation error. Portfolio optimization requires a modern statistical perspective. Efficient Asset Management, Second Edition uses Monte Carlo resampling to address information uncertainty and define Resampled Efficiency (RE) technology. RE optimized portfolios represent a new definition of portfolio optimality that is more investment intuitive, robust, and provably investment effective. RE rebalancing provides the first rigorous portfolio trading, monitoring, and asset importance rules, avoiding widespread ad hoc methods in current practice. The Second Edition resolves several open issues and misunderstandings that have emerged since the original edition. The new edition includes new proofs of effectiveness, substantial revisions of statistical estimation, extensive discussion of long-short optimization, and new tools for dealing with estimation error in applications and enhancing computational efficiency. RE optimization is shown to be a Bayesian-based generalization and enhancement of Markowitz's solution. RE technology corrects many current practices that may adversely impact the investment value of trillions of dollars under current asset management. RE optimization technology may also be useful in other financial optimizations and more generally in multivariate estimation contexts of information uncertainty with Bayesian linear constraints. Michaud and Michaud's new book includes numerous additional proposals to enhance investment value including Stein and Bayesian methods for improved input estimation, the use of portfolio priors, and an economic perspective for asset-liability optimization. Applications include investment policy, asset allocation, and equity portfolio optimization. A simple global asset allocation problem illustrates portfolio optimization techniques. A final chapter includes practical advice for avoiding simple portfolio design errors. With its important implications for investment practice, Efficient Asset Management 's highly intuitive yet rigorous approach to defining optimal portfolios will appeal to investment management executives, consultants, brokers, and anyone seeking to stay abreast of current investment technology. Through practical examples and illustrations, Michaud and Michaud update the practice of optimization for modern investment management.
Download or read book In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-17 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there an ideal portfolio of investment assets, one that perfectly balances risk and reward? In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio examines this question by profiling and interviewing ten of the most prominent figures in the finance world,Jack Bogle, Charley Ellis, Gene Fama, Marty Liebowitz, Harry Markowitz, Bob Merton, Myron Scholes, Bill Sharpe, Bob Shiller, and Jeremy Siegel. We learn about the personal and intellectual journeys of these luminaries, which include six Nobel Laureates and a trailblazer in mutual funds, and their most innovative contributions. In the process, we come to understand how the science of modern investing came to be. Each of these finance greats discusses their idea of a perfect portfolio, offering invaluable insights to today's investor
Download or read book Portfolio Design written by Richard C. Marston and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-29 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Design – choosing the right mix of assets appropriate to a particular investor – is the key to successful investing. It can help you accumulate wealth over time, while cushioning the blow of possible economic downturns. But in order to successfully achieve this goal, you need to be familiar with all of the major asset classes that go into modern portfolios and learn how much they add to portfolio diversification. Thoughtful asset allocation provides discipline to the investment process and gives you the best chance of building and safeguarding wealth. Wharton Professor Richard C. Marston, 2014 recipient of the Investment Management Consultants Association’s prestigious Matthew R. McArthur Award, will guide you through the major decisions that need to be made when designing a portfolio and will put you in the best position to balance the risk-reward relationship that is part of this endeavor. Portfolio Design is to be read by investment advisors. The book is rich in information about individual asset classes, including both traditional assets like stocks and bonds as well as alternative assets such as hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and commodities. So it should appeal to all sophisticated advisors whether or not they are trying to qualify for one of the major investment designations. In fact, the book is designed to be read by any advisor who is as fascinated as Marston by the investment process.
Download or read book Adaptive Asset Allocation written by Adam Butler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-02 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build an agile, responsive portfolio with a new approach to global asset allocation Adaptive Asset Allocation is a no-nonsense how-to guide for dynamic portfolio management. Written by the team behind Gestaltu.com, this book walks you through a uniquely objective and unbiased investment philosophy and provides clear guidelines for execution. From foundational concepts and timing to forecasting and portfolio optimization, this book shares insightful perspective on portfolio adaptation that can improve any investment strategy. Accessible explanations of both classical and contemporary research support the methodologies presented, bolstered by the authors' own capstone case study showing the direct impact of this approach on the individual investor. Financial advisors are competing in an increasingly commoditized environment, with the added burden of two substantial bear markets in the last 15 years. This book presents a framework that addresses the major challenges both advisors and investors face, emphasizing the importance of an agile, globally-diversified portfolio. Drill down to the most important concepts in wealth management Optimize portfolio performance with careful timing of savings and withdrawals Forecast returns 80% more accurately than assuming long-term averages Adopt an investment framework for stability, growth, and maximum income An optimized portfolio must be structured in a way that allows quick response to changes in asset class risks and relationships, and the flexibility to continually adapt to market changes. To execute such an ambitious strategy, it is essential to have a strong grasp of foundational wealth management concepts, a reliable system of forecasting, and a clear understanding of the merits of individual investment methods. Adaptive Asset Allocation provides critical background information alongside a streamlined framework for improving portfolio performance.
Download or read book Lifecycle Investing written by Ian Ayres and published by ReadHowYouWant.com. This book was released on 2010-05 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diversification provides a well-known way of getting something close to a free lunch: by spreading money across different kinds of investments, investors can earn the same return with lower risk (or a much higher return for the same amount of risk). This strategy, introduced nearly fifty years ago, led to such strategies as index funds. What if we were all missing out on another free lunch that’s right under our noses? InLifecycle Investing, Barry Nalebuff and Ian Ayres-two of the most innovative thinkers in business, law, and economics-have developed tools that will allow nearly any investor to diversify their portfolios over time. By using leveraging when young-a controversial idea that sparked hate mail when the authors first floated it in the pages ofForbes-investors of all stripes, from those just starting to plan to those getting ready to retire, can substantially reduce overall risk while improving their returns. InLifecycle Investing, readers will learn How to figure out the level of exposure and leverage that’s right foryou How the Lifecycle Investing strategy would have performed in the historical market Why it will work even if everyone does it Whennotto adopt the Lifecycle Investing strategy Clearly written and backed by rigorous research,Lifecycle Investingpresents a simple but radical idea that will shake up how we think about retirement investing even as it provides a healthier nest egg in a nicely feathered nest.
Download or read book Optimal Portfolios Under Time Varying Investment Opportunities Parameter Uncertainty and Ambiguity Aversion written by Thomas Dangl and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the implications of predictability on the optimal asset allocation of ambiguity-averse long-term investors and analyze the term structure of the multivariate risk-return trade-off considering parameter uncertainty. We calibrate the model to real returns of US stocks, long-term bonds, cash, real estate, and gold using the term spread and the dividend-price ratio as additional predictive variables, and we show that over long horizons the optimal asset allocation is significantly influenced by the covariance structure induced by estimation errors. The ambiguity-averse long-term investor optimally tilts her portfolio toward a seemingly inefficient portfolio, which shows maximum robustness against estimation errors.
Download or read book Essays on Optimal Portfolio Decisions for Long term Investors written by Hui-Ju Tsai and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains two essays on the optimal portfolio decision for long-term investors. The first essay studies the optimal asset allocation for long-horizon investors with non-tradable labor income when multiple risky asset returns are predictable. It finds that more risk-averse investors hold a higher bond/stock ratio in their risky portfolios when labor income is positively correlated with stock return or independent of risky asset returns, but the reverse is true when labor income is positively correlated with bond return. The allocation to stock inherits the inverted U-shaped pattern of labor income growth with respect to expected time until retirement. These results suggest that popular recommendations of investment advisors that more conservative investors should hold a higher bond/stock ratio and that the portfolio allocation to stock should equal 100 minus age may both lack theoretical justification. In the out-of-sample performance test, the dynamic portfolio shows the highest mean returns and Sharpe ratio than two benchmark portfolios, justifying the economic significance of incorporating the time-variation of investment opportunities and nontradable labor income into investors' portfolio choice. The second essay studies employees' optimal portfolio in their defined contribution pension plans. Assuming a discrete time model with predictable risky asset returns, the essay finds that the employees' optimal portfolio decision can be greatly affected by the employees' time to retirement, risk preference, contribution rate as well as the correlation between labor income and asset returns. Performance test shows that the gains from adopting the dynamic portfolio strategy relative to several benchmark strategies, including the 1/n rule, the optimal static strategy with and without the consideration of asset return predictability, all stock strategy, and all company stock strategy, are economically significant and the economic gain increases with employees' risk aversion. The empirical evidence that employees invest significantly in their company stock in pension plans is difficult to be justified, even after the consideration of short-sale constraints, higher expected company stock return, employees' familiarity with their company, and employers' exclusive match policy. Over allocation to company stock can be very costly, especially to conservative employees.
Download or read book Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis written by Edwin J. Elton and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-01-21 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 9th Editionexamines the characteristics and analysis of individual securities, as well as the theory and practice of optimally combining securities into portfolios. It stresses the economic intuition behind the subject matter while presenting advanced concepts of investment analysis and portfolio management. The authors present material that captures the state of modern portfolio analysis, general equilibrium theory, and investment analysis in an accessible and intuitive manner.
Download or read book Stocks for the Long Run written by Jeremy J. Siegel and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1998 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Siegel's conclusion - that, when long-term purchasing power is considered, stocks are actually safer than bank deposits! - is now strengthened with updated research findings and information that include a thorough analysis of the "Dow 10" and other yield-based strategies that have captivated investors over the past several years; how the Baby Boom generation will change the stock market forever - knowledge that can energize your own portfolio's performance; the amazing effect of the calendar on stock market performance - and how investing at certain times of the year can enhance performance; how the newest tax laws impact your investment returns and the funding of your retirement account; analyses and performance comparisons of highly publicized market sectors such as small cap stocks, growth stocks, and the "Nifty Fifty" stocks; and how Wall Street pros use investor sentiment and Fed policy to successfully time stock purchases over the investment cycle."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Download or read book Streetwise written by Peter L. Bernstein and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-13 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Streetwise brings together classic articles from the publication that helped revolutionize the way Wall Street does business. During the recession of the early 1970s, investment professionals turned to the theories of a small band of mathematical economists, whose ideas on such topics as portfolio development and risk management eventually led to the reform and maintenance of entire economies. This was the first time economists and practitioners had joined forces to such remarkable effect. Economist and money manager Peter Bernstein sought to encourage this exchange when, in 1974, he founded The Journal of Portfolio Management (JPM). For this present volume, Bernstein and JPM editor Frank Fabozzi have selected forty-one of the most influential articles to appear in the journal over the past twenty-five years, some of them written by Nobel laureates and all aimed at stimulating dialogue between academic economists wishing to understand the real-world problems of finance and investment professionals wanting to bring the most advanced theoretical work to bear on commerce. Financial economics is a youthful but vital field. Streetwise not only reflects its fascinating history but through articles on topics ranging from stock prices and risk management to bonds and real estate also offers relevant insights for today. The contributors are: R. Akhoury, R. D. Arnott, G. L. Bergstrom, G. O. Bierwag, F. Black, R. Bookstaber, K. Cholerton, R. Clarke, D. M. Cutler, C. P. Dialynas, P. O. Dietz, D. H. Edington, M. W. Einhorn, J. Evnine, R. Ferguson, P. M. Firstenberg, H. R. Fogler, F. Garrone, R. Grieves, R. C. Grinold, D. J. Hardy, D. P. Jacob, B. I. Jacobs, R. H. Jeffrey, R. N. Kahn, G. G. Kaufman, M. Kritzman, R. Lanstein, C. M. Latta, M. L. Leibowitz, K. N. Levy, R. Lochoff, R. W. McEnally, K. R. Meyer, E. M. Miller, A. F. Perold, P. Pieraerts, J. M. Poterba, K. Reid, R. R. Reitano, R. Roll, B. Rosenberg, S. A. Ross, M. Rubinstein, A. Rudd, P. A. Samuelson, R. Schweitzer, C. Seix, W. F. Sharpe, B. Solnik, L. H. Summers, A. L. Toevs, J. L. Treynor, A. Weinberger, and R. C. Zisler.
Download or read book Investing for the Short and the Long Term written by Stanley Fischer and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If asset returns have different dynamics, then their short and long run risk characteristics differ. For instance, if returns on one asset follow a random walk, it is very risky to hold for the long term even if it is quite safe for the short term. This paper examines the effects of different returns dynamics of assets on optimal portfolio behavior, for Portfolios held for differing lengths of times. It then examines the evidence on the dynamics of stock and bill returns in the United States. The evidence is that bill returns are more highly serially correlated than stock returns. Thus their riskiness relative to that of stocks rises the longer they are held. optimal portfolios are simulated, and it is shown that optimal port- folio proportions are not very sensitive to the length of the holding period of the portfolio
Download or read book Three Essays on the Effect of Learning and Predictability on Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Strategies and Asset Prices written by Yihong Xia and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
