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Book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading

Download or read book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading written by Tim Leung (Professor of industrial engineering) and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-11-26 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading: Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications provides a systematic study to the practical problem of optimal trading in the presence of mean-reverting price dynamics. It is self-contained and organized in its presentation, and provides rigorous mathematical analysis as well as computational methods for trading ETFs, options, futures on commodities or volatility indices, and credit risk derivatives. This book offers a unique financial engineering approach that combines novel analytical methodologies and applications to a wide array of real-world examples. It extracts the mathematical problems from various trading approaches and scenarios, but also addresses the practical aspects of trading problems, such as model estimation, risk premium, risk constraints, and transaction costs. The explanations in the book are detailed enough to capture the interest of the curious student or researcher, and complete enough to give the necessary background material for further exploration into the subject and related literature. This book will be a useful tool for anyone interested in financial engineering, particularly algorithmic trading and commodity trading, and would like to understand the mathematically optimal strategies in different market environments."--

Book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading  Mathematical Analysis And Practical Applications

Download or read book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading Mathematical Analysis And Practical Applications written by Tim Siu-tang Leung and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-11-26 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal Mean Reversion Trading: Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications provides a systematic study to the practical problem of optimal trading in the presence of mean-reverting price dynamics. It is self-contained and organized in its presentation, and provides rigorous mathematical analysis as well as computational methods for trading ETFs, options, futures on commodities or volatility indices, and credit risk derivatives.This book offers a unique financial engineering approach that combines novel analytical methodologies and applications to a wide array of real-world examples. It extracts the mathematical problems from various trading approaches and scenarios, but also addresses the practical aspects of trading problems, such as model estimation, risk premium, risk constraints, and transaction costs. The explanations in the book are detailed enough to capture the interest of the curious student or researcher, and complete enough to give the necessary background material for further exploration into the subject and related literature.This book will be a useful tool for anyone interested in financial engineering, particularly algorithmic trading and commodity trading, and would like to understand the mathematically optimal strategies in different market environments.

Book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading

Download or read book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading written by Tim Leung and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic study on the optimal timing of trades in markets with mean-reverting price dynamics. We present a financial engineering approach that distills the core mathematical questions from different trading problems, and also incorporates the practical aspects of trading, such as model estimation, risk premia, risk constraints, and transaction costs, into our analysis. Self-contained and organized, the book not only discusses the mathematical framework and analytical results for the financial problems, but also gives formulas and numerical tools for practical implementation. A wide array of real-world applications are discussed, such as pairs trading of exchange-traded funds, dynamic portfolio of futures on commodities or volatility indices, and liquidation of options or credit risk derivatives.A core element of our mathematical approach is the theory of optimal stopping. For a number of the trading problems discussed herein, the optimal strategies are represented by the solutions to the corresponding optimal single/multiple stopping problems. This also leads to the analytical and numerical studies of the associated variational inequalities or free boundary problems. We provide an overview of our methodology and chapter outlines in the Introduction.Our objective is to design the book so that it can be useful for doctoral and masters students, advanced undergraduates, and researchers in financial engineering/mathematics, especially those who specialize in algorithmic trading, or have interest in trading exchange-traded funds, commodities, volatility, and credit risk, and related derivatives. For practitioners, we provide formulas for instant strategy implementation, propose new trading strategies with mathematical justification, as well as quantitative enhancement for some existing heuristic trading strategies.

Book Risk Management and Value

Download or read book Risk Management and Value written by Mondher Bellalah and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive discussion of the issues related to risk, volatility, value and risk management. It includes a selection of the best papers presented at the Fourth International Finance Conference 2007, qualified by Professor James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, as a high level one. The first half of the book examines ways to manage risk and compute value-at-risk for exchange risk associated to debt portfolios and portfolios of equity. It also covers the Basel II framework implementation and securitisation. The effects of volatility and risk on the valuation of financial assets are further studied in detail. The second half of the book is dedicated to the banking industry, banking competition on the credit market, banking risk and distress, market valuation, managerial risk taking, and value in the ICT activity. With its inclusion of new concepts and recent literature, academics and risk managers will want to read this book. Sample Chapter(s). Introduction (40 KB). Chapter 1: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (97 KB). Contents: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (M Bellalah); A Value-at-Risk Approach to Assess Exchange Risk Associated to a Public Debt Portfolio: The Case of a Small Developing Economy (W Ajili); A Method to Find Historical VaR for Portfolio that Follows S&P CNX Nifty Index by Estimating the Index Value (K V N M Ramesh); Some Considerations on the Relationship between Corruption and Economic Growth (V Dragota et al.); Financial Risk Management by Derivatives Caused from Weather Conditions: Its Applicability for Trkiye (T uzkan); The Basel II Framework Implementation and Securitization (M-F Lamy); Stochastic Time Change, Volatility, and Normality of Returns: A High-Frequency Data Analysis with a Sample of LSE Stocks (O Borsali & A Zenaidi); The Behavior of the Implied Volatility Surface: Evidence from Crude Oil Futures Options (A Bouden); Procyclical Behavior of Loan Loss Provisions and Banking Strategies: An Application to the European Banks (D D Dinamona); Market Power and Banking Competition on the Credit Market (I Lapteacru); Early Warning Detection of Banking Distress OCo Is Failure Possible for European Banks? (A Naouar); Portfolio Diversification and Market Share Analysis for Romanian Insurance Companies (M Dragota et al.); On the Closed-End Funds Discounts/Premiums in the Context of the Investor Sentiment Theory (A P C do Monte & M J da Rocha Armada); Why has Idiosyncratic Volatility Increased in Europe? (J-E Palard); Debt Valuation, Enterprise Assessment and Applications (D Vanoverberghe); Does The Tunisian Stock Market Overreact? (F Hammami & E Abaoub); Investor-Venture Capitalist Relationship: Asymmetric Information, Uncertainty, and Monitoring (M Cherif & S Sraieb); Threshold Mean Reversion in Stock Prices (F Jawadi); Households'' Expectations of Unemployment: New Evidence from French Microdata (S Ghabri); Corporate Governance and Managerial Risk Taking: Empirical Study in the Tunisian Context (A B Aroui & F W B M Douagi); Nonlinearity and Genetic Algorithms in the Decision-Making Process (N Hachicha & A Bouri); ICT and Performance of the Companies: The Case of the Tunisian Companies (J Ziadi); Option Market Microstructure (J-M Sahut); Does the Standardization of Business Processes Improve Management? The Case of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (T Chtioui); Does Macroeconomic Transparency Help Governments be Solvent? Evidence from Recent Data (R Mallat & D K Nguyen). Readership: Academics and risk managers."

Book Pairs Trading

    Book Details:
  • Author : Ganapathy Vidyamurthy
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 2011-02-02
  • ISBN : 111804570X
  • Pages : 295 pages

Download or read book Pairs Trading written by Ganapathy Vidyamurthy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-02 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first in-depth analysis of pairs trading Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy in its most simple form. The strategy involves being long (or bullish) one asset and short (or bearish) another. If properly performed, the investor will gain if the market rises or falls. Pairs Trading reveals the secrets of this rigorous quantitative analysis program to provide individuals and investment houses with the tools they need to successfully implement and profit from this proven trading methodology. Pairs Trading contains specific and tested formulas for identifying and investing in pairs, and answers important questions such as what ratio should be used to construct the pairs properly. Ganapathy Vidyamurthy (Stamford, CT) is currently a quantitative software analyst and developer at a major New York City hedge fund.

Book Get Rich With Options

Download or read book Get Rich With Options written by Lee Lowell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-05-23 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to survive and thrive in today's financial markets, you must seriously consider the use of options in your investment endeavors. Options allow you to reap the same benefits as an outright stock or commodity trade, but with less risk and less money on the line. The truth is, you can achieve everything with options that you would with stocks or commodities?at less cost?while gaining a much higher percentage return on your invested dollars. After numerous years as a market maker in the trenches of the New York Mercantile Exchange, few analysts know how to make money trading options like author Lee Lowell. In this well-rounded resource, Lowell shows both stock and commodity option traders exactly what works and what doesn't. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Get Rich with Options provides you with the knowledge and strategies needed to achieve optimal results within the options market. The book quickly covers the basics?how options are priced, strike price selection, the use of Delta, and using volatility to one's advantage?before moving on to the four options trading strategies that have helped Lowell profit in this arena time and again: buying deep-in-the-money call options, selling naked puts, selling option credit spreads, and selling covered calls. Using these strategoes decisively, he says, is the fastest route to riches in the options trading game. Get Rich with Options is packed with real-life examples of actual trades and detailed discussions of how options can be used as a hedging, speculating, or income-producing tool. You'll learn how to set up a home business with the best options trading software, tools, and Web sites. And you'll begin to see options in a whole new light and discover how to become part of a small group of investors who consistently win.

Book Algorithmic and High Frequency Trading

Download or read book Algorithmic and High Frequency Trading written by Álvaro Cartea and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The design of trading algorithms requires sophisticated mathematical models backed up by reliable data. In this textbook, the authors develop models for algorithmic trading in contexts such as executing large orders, market making, targeting VWAP and other schedules, trading pairs or collection of assets, and executing in dark pools. These models are grounded on how the exchanges work, whether the algorithm is trading with better informed traders (adverse selection), and the type of information available to market participants at both ultra-high and low frequency. Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading is the first book that combines sophisticated mathematical modelling, empirical facts and financial economics, taking the reader from basic ideas to cutting-edge research and practice. If you need to understand how modern electronic markets operate, what information provides a trading edge, and how other market participants may affect the profitability of the algorithms, then this is the book for you.

Book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading with Transaction Costs and Stop Loss Exit

Download or read book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading with Transaction Costs and Stop Loss Exit written by Tim Leung and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently liquidate the position subject to transaction costs. Modeling the price spread by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we apply a probabilistic methodology and rigorously derive the optimal price intervals for market entry and exit. As an extension, we incorporate a stop-loss constraint to limit the maximum loss. We show that the entry region is characterized by a bounded price interval that lies strictly above the stop-loss level. As for the exit timing, a higher stop-loss level always implies a lower optimal take-profit level. Both analytical and numerical results are provided to illustrate the dependence of timing strategies on model parameters such as transaction cost and stop-loss level.

Book Online Portfolio Selection

Download or read book Online Portfolio Selection written by Bin Li and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-30 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the aim to sequentially determine optimal allocations across a set of assets, Online Portfolio Selection (OLPS) has significantly reshaped the financial investment landscape. Online Portfolio Selection: Principles and Algorithms supplies a comprehensive survey of existing OLPS principles and presents a collection of innovative strategies that leverage machine learning techniques for financial investment. The book presents four new algorithms based on machine learning techniques that were designed by the authors, as well as a new back-test system they developed for evaluating trading strategy effectiveness. The book uses simulations with real market data to illustrate the trading strategies in action and to provide readers with the confidence to deploy the strategies themselves. The book is presented in five sections that: Introduce OLPS and formulate OLPS as a sequential decision task Present key OLPS principles, including benchmarks, follow the winner, follow the loser, pattern matching, and meta-learning Detail four innovative OLPS algorithms based on cutting-edge machine learning techniques Provide a toolbox for evaluating the OLPS algorithms and present empirical studies comparing the proposed algorithms with the state of the art Investigate possible future directions Complete with a back-test system that uses historical data to evaluate the performance of trading strategies, as well as MATLAB® code for the back-test systems, this book is an ideal resource for graduate students in finance, computer science, and statistics. It is also suitable for researchers and engineers interested in computational investment. Readers are encouraged to visit the authors’ website for updates: http://olps.stevenhoi.org.

Book Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

Download or read book Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds written by Tim Leung and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an analysis, under both discrete-time and continuous-time frameworks, on the price dynamics of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs), with emphasis on the roles of leverage ratio, realized volatility, investment horizon, and tracking errors. This study provides new insights on the risks associated with LETFs. It also leads to the discussion of new risk management concepts, such as admissible leverage ratios and admissible risk horizon, as well as the mathematical and empirical analyses of several trading strategies, including static portfolios, pairs trading, and stop-loss strategies involving ETFs and LETFs. The final part of the book addresses the pricing of options written on LETFs. Since different LETFs are designed to track the same reference index, these funds and their associated options share very similar sources of randomness. The authors provide a no-arbitrage pricing approach that consistently value options on LETFs with different leverage ratios with stochastic volatility and jumps in the reference index. Their results are useful for market making of these options, and for identifying price discrepancies across the LETF options markets. As the market of leveraged exchange-traded products become a sizeable connected part of the financial market, it is crucial to better understand its feedback effect and broader market impact. This is important not only for individual and institutional investors, but also for regulators.

Book Basic Technical Analysis of Financial Markets

Download or read book Basic Technical Analysis of Financial Markets written by Renato Di Lorenzo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-03 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present book avoids the fantasy recipes that abound in technical analysis and focuses instead on those that are statistically correct and can be understood by newcomers as well as appreciated by professionals. The described protocols and techniques will prove invaluable in analyzing market behavior and assisting in trading decisions. The algorithms used in the technical analysis of financial markets have changed beyond recognition. This book offers a more efficient technical analysis – one that is not satisfied with protocols that just seem to be fine, but which requires that they are indeed fine, verifying this through simulations on the PC, serious statistical counts, and so on.​

Book Applied Probabilistic Calculus for Financial Engineering

Download or read book Applied Probabilistic Calculus for Financial Engineering written by Bertram K. C. Chan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-10-16 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Illustrates how R may be used successfully to solve problems in quantitative finance Applied Probabilistic Calculus for Financial Engineering: An Introduction Using R provides R recipes for asset allocation and portfolio optimization problems. It begins by introducing all the necessary probabilistic and statistical foundations, before moving on to topics related to asset allocation and portfolio optimization with R codes illustrated for various examples. This clear and concise book covers financial engineering, using R in data analysis, and univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data analysis. It examines probabilistic calculus for modeling financial engineering—walking the reader through building an effective financial model from the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Model via probabilistic calculus, while also covering Ito Calculus. Classical mathematical models in financial engineering and modern portfolio theory are discussed—along with the Two Mutual Fund Theorem and The Sharpe Ratio. The book also looks at R as a calculator and using R in data analysis in financial engineering. Additionally, it covers asset allocation using R, financial risk modeling and portfolio optimization using R, global and local optimal values, locating functional maxima and minima, and portfolio optimization by performance analytics in CRAN. Covers optimization methodologies in probabilistic calculus for financial engineering Answers the question: What does a "Random Walk" Financial Theory look like? Covers the GBM Model and the Random Walk Model Examines modern theories of portfolio optimization, including The Markowitz Model of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), The Black-Litterman Model, and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model Applied Probabilistic Calculus for Financial Engineering: An Introduction Using R s an ideal reference for professionals and students in economics, econometrics, and finance, as well as for financial investment quants and financial engineers.

Book Export Planning

Download or read book Export Planning written by Joris Leeman and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2021-03-05 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When a company initiates export development and internationalisation, it is essential to follow a systematic strategy formulation and decision-making process. Export Planning (2nd edition) provides a methodology to plan and achieve globalisation. This process of export planning consists of four phases: export policy, export audit, export plan, and export roll-out. Export Planning describes these 4 phases, and provides a 10-step guide for the construction of an international marketing plan. Export Planning will enable readers to: 1. systematically select and plan entries into new international markets; 2. enhance the chances of success through an integrated review of analysis and strategy by means of marketing, logistics, organization and finance; 3. assemble a sound line of reasoning from strategy to implementation. Export Planning is a practical book. It describes export and international marketing at a strategic, tactical and operational level, and combines theoretic models with relevant practical experience. New to this 2nd edition is an additional chapter on the implementation of the export transaction. This book is intended for bachelor and graduate students at business schools and universities. This book is also useful for anyone who wants to know more about export planning, international marketing and international market development.

Book Trade Facilitation

Download or read book Trade Facilitation written by Patricia Sourdin and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'In the last decade trade costs have been a subject of intense study in the international trade literature. Richard Pomfret and Patricia Sourdin provide a timely and accessible summary of what we know so far. Their comprehensive review of what we have learned is paired here with important new research in the area of trade facilitation. This is important reading for policymakers interested in international trade and trade-related economic development.' Russell Hillberry, University of Melbourne, Australia 'Few topics are as important in international economics as trade costs. Surprisingly, there are few studies that explicitly address that issue in detail. This makes the book of great value to both professional economists and policy makers worldwide helping them to understand the different concepts of trade costs, their determinants and how to reduce them using trade facilitation measures. The book is very well written and a must read for any person that has an interest in trade costs!' Matthias Busse, Ruhr-University of Bochum, Germany This up-to-date and informative book provides a comprehensive treatment of the costs of trading across borders and of trade facilitation policies. While traditional tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade have been reduced, international trade continues to involve higher costs in money and time than domestic trade. These include not only transport costs, that are determined by distance and commodity characteristics, but also at-the-border and behind-the-border costs which can be reduced by appropriate policies. Research on trade costs has flourished since the turn of the century, and this book by Patricia Sourdin and Richard Pomfret, takes stock of our increased knowledge of the nature and magnitude of trade costs, analysing why they are high and how they can be reduced to increase the gains from trade. Trade Facilitation will appeal to economists and policymakers at the national level and in multinational institutions, researchers and postgraduate students interested in international trade and trade policy, as well as students in international business.

Book A Machine Learning based Pairs Trading Investment Strategy

Download or read book A Machine Learning based Pairs Trading Investment Strategy written by Simão Moraes Sarmento and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-13 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates the application of promising machine learning techniques to address two problems: (i) how to find profitable pairs while constraining the search space and (ii) how to avoid long decline periods due to prolonged divergent pairs. It also proposes the integration of an unsupervised learning algorithm, OPTICS, to handle problem (i), and demonstrates that the suggested technique can outperform the common pairs search methods, achieving an average portfolio Sharpe ratio of 3.79, in comparison to 3.58 and 2.59 obtained using standard approaches. For problem (ii), the authors introduce a forecasting-based trading model capable of reducing the periods of portfolio decline by 75%. However, this comes at the expense of decreasing overall profitability. The authors also test the proposed strategy using an ARMA model, an LSTM and an LSTM encoder-decoder.

Book Employee Stock Options  Exercise Timing  Hedging  And Valuation

Download or read book Employee Stock Options Exercise Timing Hedging And Valuation written by Tim Siu-tang Leung and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-07-29 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Employee stock options (ESOs) are an integral component of compensation in the US. In fact, almost all S&P 500 companies grant options to their top executives, and the total value accounts for almost half of the total pay for their CEOs. In view of the extensive use and significant cost of ESOs to firms, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has mandated expensing ESOs since 2004. This gives rise to the need to create a reasonable valuation method for these options for most firms that grant ESOs to their employees. The valuation of ESOs involves a number of challenging issues, and is thus an important active research area in Accounting, Corporate Finance, and Financial Mathematics.In this exciting book, the author discusses the practical and challenging problems surrounding ESOs from a financial mathematician's perspective. This book provides a systematic overview of the contractual features of ESOs and thoughtful discussions of different valuation approaches, with emphasis on three major aspects: (i) hedging strategies; (ii) exercise timing; and (iii) valuation methodologies. In addition to addressing each of these categories, this book also highlights their connections and combined effects of the cost of ESOs to firms, as well as examines the implications to modeling and valuation approaches. The book features a unique approach that combines stochastic modeling and control techniques with option pricing theory, and provides formulas and numerical schemes for fast implementation and clear illustration.

Book Financial Modelling

Download or read book Financial Modelling written by Joerg Kienitz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-02-18 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial modelling Theory, Implementation and Practice with MATLAB Source Jörg Kienitz and Daniel Wetterau Financial Modelling - Theory, Implementation and Practice with MATLAB Source is a unique combination of quantitative techniques, the application to financial problems and programming using Matlab. The book enables the reader to model, design and implement a wide range of financial models for derivatives pricing and asset allocation, providing practitioners with complete financial modelling workflow, from model choice, deriving prices and Greeks using (semi-) analytic and simulation techniques, and calibration even for exotic options. The book is split into three parts. The first part considers financial markets in general and looks at the complex models needed to handle observed structures, reviewing models based on diffusions including stochastic-local volatility models and (pure) jump processes. It shows the possible risk-neutral densities, implied volatility surfaces, option pricing and typical paths for a variety of models including SABR, Heston, Bates, Bates-Hull-White, Displaced-Heston, or stochastic volatility versions of Variance Gamma, respectively Normal Inverse Gaussian models and finally, multi-dimensional models. The stochastic-local-volatility Libor market model with time-dependent parameters is considered and as an application how to price and risk-manage CMS spread products is demonstrated. The second part of the book deals with numerical methods which enables the reader to use the models of the first part for pricing and risk management, covering methods based on direct integration and Fourier transforms, and detailing the implementation of the COS, CONV, Carr-Madan method or Fourier-Space-Time Stepping. This is applied to pricing of European, Bermudan and exotic options as well as the calculation of the Greeks. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is outlined and bridge sampling is discussed in a Gaussian setting and for Lévy processes. Computation of Greeks is covered using likelihood ratio methods and adjoint techniques. A chapter on state-of-the-art optimization algorithms rounds up the toolkit for applying advanced mathematical models to financial problems and the last chapter in this section of the book also serves as an introduction to model risk. The third part is devoted to the usage of Matlab, introducing the software package by describing the basic functions applied for financial engineering. The programming is approached from an object-oriented perspective with examples to propose a framework for calibration, hedging and the adjoint method for calculating Greeks in a Libor market model. Source code used for producing the results and analysing the models is provided on the author's dedicated website, http://www.mathworks.de/matlabcentral/fileexchange/authors/246981.