Download or read book Optimal Intervention for an Epidemic Model Under Uncertainty written by Nathan Green and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Optimal intervention of epidemic models with parameter uncertainty written by Nathan Green and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Optimal Timing of Interventions During an Epidemic written by Nick Huberts and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, causing infectious disease COVID-19, has shown that government (non-pharmaceutical) intervention can have a significant impact on the rate at which a virus spreads. It has been deemed imperative to reduce and delay the peak ("flattening the curve"). Flattening the curve is especially important when considering the impact of an outbreak on the health care system. Delaying the peak gives hospitals and (local) governments more time to prepare for later outbreaks and the (anticipated) influx of patients, but, more importantly, when the peak number of people requiring care simultaneously is reduced, there is a lower risk of the healthcare system being overwhelmed. It remains unclear, though, under what circumstances non-pharmaceutical intervention is optimal and perhaps even more importantly, once measures are in place, when to stop non-pharmaceutical interventions. When measures are lifted too early a second outbreak could appear. Intervention lasting too long could lead to unnecessary long term economic consequences. This paper uses a continuous-time Markov chain model to study the value and optimal exercise decision of two (sequential) options: the option to intervene and, after intervention has started, the option to end it.
Download or read book Optimal Response to Epidemics written by Jueli Isabelle Rao and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Epidemics, such as COVID-19, can have profound and far-reaching impacts on societies and individuals worldwide. Infectious disease outbreaks can result in millions of lives lost and place a tremendous burden on public health resources. Additionally, the opioid epidemic in the U.S. has been further fueled by COVID-19, leading to record drug overdose deaths in 2021. In the face of these epidemics, policy makers face difficult decisions in allocating limited resources to improve population health. To address these challenges, this dissertation focuses on the development of mathematical models to inform critical decisions in public policy, specifically optimizing resource allocation to control epidemics. Chapter 2 centers on the opioid epidemic. We develop a dynamic model to assess the effectiveness of interventions for controlling the US opioid epidemic. We show that reductions in opioid prescriptions are necessary but may lead to a short-term increase in heroin overdose deaths, and thus must be combined with scale up of treatment for addicted individuals -- but that even with immediate policy changes, significant morbidity and mortality will still occur. Our analysis provides critically needed evidence-informed recommendations for reducing opioid-related morbidity and mortality in the U.S. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 focus on developing interpretable models to guide the allocation of limited vaccines to control the spread of an infectious disease. In Chapter 3 we first consider an SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model with interacting population groups and a single allocation of vaccine. By approximating the disease dynamics, we derive intuitive analytical conditions characterizing the optimal solution for four different objectives: minimize infections, deaths, life years lost and QALYs lost due to deaths. We extend the work in Chapter 4 to a dynamic setting and develop a method for allocating vaccines over time. In Chapter 5, we further extend the work to an endemic setting, considering vaccine booster doses to take into account waning immunity from vaccination. We show that the approximated optimal solution is an all-or-nothing allocation based on a prioritized list of population groups given by the analytical conditions. Numerical simulations show that the analytical solutions achieve near-optimal results with objective function values significantly better than would be obtained using simple allocation rules such as allocation proportional to population group size. By leveraging interdisciplinary approaches, this dissertation aims to aid in decision making in the areas of opioid abuse, COVID-19, and epidemic control. Importantly, the work provides general theoretical frameworks that can be adapted to other public health challenges for epidemic control.
Download or read book Mathematical Epidemiology written by Fred Brauer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
Download or read book Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models written by Suzanne Lenhart and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-05-07 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From economics and business to the biological sciences to physics and engineering, professionals successfully use the powerful mathematical tool of optimal control to make management and strategy decisions. Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models thoroughly develops the mathematical aspects of optimal control theory and provides insight into t
Download or read book Pandemics Insurance and Social Protection written by María del Carmen Boado-Penas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic. Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers' legal problems, amongst others. Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology.
Download or read book Functional Analysis Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control written by Francis Clarke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 589 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Functional analysis owes much of its early impetus to problems that arise in the calculus of variations. In turn, the methods developed there have been applied to optimal control, an area that also requires new tools, such as nonsmooth analysis. This self-contained textbook gives a complete course on all these topics. It is written by a leading specialist who is also a noted expositor. This book provides a thorough introduction to functional analysis and includes many novel elements as well as the standard topics. A short course on nonsmooth analysis and geometry completes the first half of the book whilst the second half concerns the calculus of variations and optimal control. The author provides a comprehensive course on these subjects, from their inception through to the present. A notable feature is the inclusion of recent, unifying developments on regularity, multiplier rules, and the Pontryagin maximum principle, which appear here for the first time in a textbook. Other major themes include existence and Hamilton-Jacobi methods. The many substantial examples, and the more than three hundred exercises, treat such topics as viscosity solutions, nonsmooth Lagrangians, the logarithmic Sobolev inequality, periodic trajectories, and systems theory. They also touch lightly upon several fields of application: mechanics, economics, resources, finance, control engineering. Functional Analysis, Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control is intended to support several different courses at the first-year or second-year graduate level, on functional analysis, on the calculus of variations and optimal control, or on some combination. For this reason, it has been organized with customization in mind. The text also has considerable value as a reference. Besides its advanced results in the calculus of variations and optimal control, its polished presentation of certain other topics (for example convex analysis, measurable selections, metric regularity, and nonsmooth analysis) will be appreciated by researchers in these and related fields.
Download or read book Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics written by Odo Diekmann and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-18 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic models and methods. Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics fully explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology. This comprehensive and accessible book also features numerous detailed exercises throughout; full elaborations to all exercises are provided. Covers the latest research in mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemiology Integrates deterministic and stochastic approaches Teaches skills in model construction, analysis, inference, and interpretation Features numerous exercises and their detailed elaborations Motivated by real-world applications throughout
Download or read book Trails in Kinetic Theory written by Giacomo Albi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-15 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, kinetic theory - originally developed as a field of mathematical physics - has emerged as one of the most prominent fields of modern mathematics. In recent years, there has been an explosion of applications of kinetic theory to other areas of research, such as biology and social sciences. This book collects lecture notes and recent advances in the field of kinetic theory of lecturers and speakers of the School “Trails in Kinetic Theory: Foundational Aspects and Numerical Methods”, hosted at Hausdorff Institute for Mathematics (HIM) of Bonn, Germany, 2019, during the Junior Trimester Program “Kinetic Theory”. Focusing on fundamental questions in both theoretical and numerical aspects, it also presents a broad view of related problems in socioeconomic sciences, pedestrian dynamics and traffic flow management.
Download or read book Pain Management and the Opioid Epidemic written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-09-28 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drug overdose, driven largely by overdose related to the use of opioids, is now the leading cause of unintentional injury death in the United States. The ongoing opioid crisis lies at the intersection of two public health challenges: reducing the burden of suffering from pain and containing the rising toll of the harms that can arise from the use of opioid medications. Chronic pain and opioid use disorder both represent complex human conditions affecting millions of Americans and causing untold disability and loss of function. In the context of the growing opioid problem, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) launched an Opioids Action Plan in early 2016. As part of this plan, the FDA asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a committee to update the state of the science on pain research, care, and education and to identify actions the FDA and others can take to respond to the opioid epidemic, with a particular focus on informing FDA's development of a formal method for incorporating individual and societal considerations into its risk-benefit framework for opioid approval and monitoring.
Download or read book The Rules of Contagion written by Adam Kucharski and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2020-02-13 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Observer Book of the Year A Times Science Book of the Year A New Statesman Book of the Year A Financial Times Science Book of the Year 'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail 'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The Times We live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next. Along the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true. Now revised and updated with content on Covid-19.
Download or read book Patient Care Under Uncertainty written by Charles F. Manski and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-10 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the past few years, the author, a renowned economist, has been applying the statistical tools of economics to decision making under uncertainty in the context of patient health status and response to treatment. He shows how statistical imprecision and identification problems affect empirical research in the patient-care sphere.
Download or read book Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases written by Piero Manfredi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.
Download or read book Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment written by Nan Kong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-02-02 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A systematic review of the most current decision models and techniques for disease prevention and treatment Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment offers a comprehensive resource of the most current decision models and techniques for disease prevention and treatment. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this important resource presents information on the optimization of chronic disease prevention, infectious disease control and prevention, and disease treatment and treatment technology. Designed to be accessible, in each chapter the text presents one decision problem with the related methodology to showcase the vast applicability of operations research tools and techniques in advancing medical decision making. This vital resource features the most recent and effective approaches to the quickly growing field of healthcare decision analytics, which involves cost-effectiveness analysis, stochastic modeling, and computer simulation. Throughout the book, the contributors discuss clinical applications of modeling and optimization techniques to assist medical decision making within complex environments. Accessible and authoritative, Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment: Presents summaries of the state-of-the-art research that has successfully utilized both decision analytics and optimization tools within healthcare operations research Highlights the optimization of chronic disease prevention, infectious disease control and prevention, and disease treatment and treatment technology Includes contributions by well-known experts from operations researchers to clinical researchers, and from data scientists to public health administrators Offers clarification on common misunderstandings and misnomers while shedding light on new approaches in this growing area Designed for use by academics, practitioners, and researchers, Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment offers a comprehensive resource for accessing the power of decision analytics and optimization tools within healthcare operations research.
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification for Hyperbolic and Kinetic Equations written by Shi Jin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-20 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores recent advances in uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic, kinetic, and related problems. The contributions address a range of different aspects, including: polynomial chaos expansions, perturbation methods, multi-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling, and moment methods. The interest in these topics is rapidly growing, as their applications have now expanded to many areas in engineering, physics, biology and the social sciences. Accordingly, the book provides the scientific community with a topical overview of the latest research efforts.
Download or read book An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology written by Maia Martcheva and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-10-20 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.
