Download or read book Risk Opportunity Uncertainty and Other Random Models written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Unlocking Opportunities for Growth written by Ian C. MacMillan and published by Pearson Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2008-07-09 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This book is a must for any Business Development Manager, Corporate Strategist, R&D Director, and anyone else who is accountable for growth in a corporation. It is an easy read that is practical and not fraught with useless academic theories.” Ron Pierantozzi, Ph.D., CEO of PPT Research and Former Director, Business Development, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. A Breakthrough Approach to Investing in Business Innovation Most companies analyze investments using tools that bias them against real innovation and lead them to avoid their best opportunities. This book introduces a breakthrough alternative: Opportunity Engineering. Drawing upon recent advances in financial analysis, but without requiring a lot of math, the authors show how to engineer the risk out of uncertain opportunities so you can pursue more high-payoff innovations. You’ll learn how to escape from the “go/no-go vise” and implement more flexible decision-making that considers all the business alternatives, models, and opportunities associated with each project. You’ll learn how to systematically structure high-potential projects to limit downside exposure and boost your potential upside. The authors show how to define the scope of investment opportunities, identify key drivers of potential profits, document assumptions, design out major risks, and tease out key challenges and vulnerabilities. Using these techniques, you can escape the mindset that limits you to low-impact innovations and begin pursuing serious growth opportunities--and make business uncertainty work for you, not against you. Why companies avoid their best opportunities for innovation Getting past risk-averse analysis that snuffs out experimentation and innovation Systematically engineering your opportunities Capturing the upside, slicing out the downside Beyond rigid “go/no-go” decisions How flexible, staged innovation creates more opportunities for delivering value Constructing an engineered growth portfolio of innovation investments Optimizing your mix of core-enhancing investments and high potential “long shots”
Download or read book Business Strategy written by J.-C. Spender and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emphasising that firms face uncertainties and unknowns, this book argues that the core of strategic thinking and processes rests on the organization and its leaders developing newly imagined solutions to the opportunities that these uncertainties open up. It presents new approaches for managers, consultants, strategy teachers and students.
Download or read book Uncertainty Advantage written by Gary S. Lynch and published by Archway Publishing. This book was released on 2017-01-12 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and uncertainty may sound scary, but todays best business leaders are navigating both to gain strategic advantage over competitorsand you can, too. This guide for business leaders examines risk and opportunity through the lens of some of the worlds most respected visionaries, including Howard Schultz, Andy Grove, Peter Huntsman, John Krafcik, Peter Leibinger, Doug Hepper, and many more. These visionaries looked beyond financial performance to see opportunitiesand they did so by understanding uncertainty. Then, they decisively acted to create measurable results that coincided with the future they envisioned. Find out how they did it, and learn how to: identify, define, and convert uncertainty into value; become more opportunistic when facing uncertainty; develop the skill to spot where advantages are likely to emerge; and create an environment where managers and leaders complement each other. Filled with case studies on companies such as Hyundai, Starbucks, Roche, and Intel, this guide delivers proven ways to create value and leverage uncertainty. It is the culmination of a decade of research and interaction with dozens of companies and growth leaders who prove that pursuing a market driven strategy to navigating uncertainty will gain measurable market advantage.
Download or read book Not Knowing written by Steven D'Souza and published by Lid Publishing. This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to thrive in these worrying times, this fascinating book proposes we head, uncomfortably, towards the unknown, rather than away from it. By developing a unique relationship with Not Knowing we discover a new way of living, working and succeeding in our modern world. This book re-frames the concept of Not Knowing, from being in a fearful place of weakness and ignorance, moving to something we must engage with personally. It introduces us to a new paradigm, where Not Knowing becomes an exciting opportunity, where we are no longer limited by what we already know and our habitual reactions to things that life throws at us, so that deeper knowing can emerge, full of rich possibilities and wisdom. Learn: Why your hard-won knowledge may be holding you back. How to recognise when you are entering your real learning zone. Lessons from people who thrive in the unknown. Powerful ideas that will help you experience joy and possibility, rather than uncertainty and worry.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Opportunity and Uncertainty written by Paul Anisef and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the longest-running survey of its kind in Canada, this book examines events in the lives of a generation of Ontario residents who graduated from grade 12 in 1973 and recreates the world in which these high school students faced the future.
Download or read book Entrepreneurial Action written by Andrew C. Corbett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-07-17 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 14 addresses the central issue of entrepreneurial action: while many factors are important to the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship does not happen until someone takes action!
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.
Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.
Download or read book The Money Tree written by Chris Guillebeau and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-04-07 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From bestselling author of The $100 Startup and Side Hustle comes Chris Guillebeau's engaging story about the power you have to create your own financial destiny. Like financial classics The Latte Factor and The Richest Man in Babylon, The Money Tree uses a compelling story with captivating characters to share its core insight: you are never at the mercy of fortune as long as you have an appetite for hard work and a willingness to step outside your comfort zone. Jake Aarons is in trouble. He's being evicted from his apartment in less than 30 days, the bill for his $50,000 in overdue student loans is almost due, and the digital marketing agency he works at just implemented a new military-style grading system that might cost him his job. To top it off, Jake's new relationship with Maya was going so well... but with everything else falling down around him, he might lose her, too. In search of answers, Jake reluctantly attends a weekly group meeting at the invitation of a coworker. Everyone in the group is trying to create a lucrative side hustle with one key requirement: they can only spend up to $500 before earning a profit. Over the course of several weeks, Jake undertakes a series of challenges, first learning how to make $1,000 in a single weekend, and ultimately how to discover the untapped skills he needs to take control of his finances--and his life.
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book Not Doing written by Steven D'Souza and published by Lid Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given today's increasing pace of change and the constant, excessive busyness that results, it's not a surprise that so many people are struggling, feeling stretched beyond their limits, overwhelmed, and exhausted, besieged by the demands of complex projects and workplaces. They are engaged in a kind of "doing" that is more effort and struggle than the kind of "doing" that comes from a place of presence, openness, and aliveness. Not only is the latter method of "doing" ineffective and unsustainable, but ultimately leads to stress, anxiety, and burnout. Not Doing: The Art of Effortless Action examines these principles and more, offering solutions for readers to achieve the optimal kind of "doing" that they long for.
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Download or read book The Entrepreneurial Mindset written by Rita Gunther McGrath and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Blueprint for Building Entrepreneurial Organizations Nobody needs to tell you that in the new economy, managers using conventional strategies are losing out to smart, fast, entrepreneurial competitors who move on ideas others overlook and who confidently act while others dither. Are the managers of leading companies simply doomed to let this happen? Not at all, argue Rita Gunther McGrath and Ian MacMillan. The fundamental problem is that the tools, training, and conceptual frameworks that work for business-as-usual can't, and don't, work when your main challenge is to bury old business models and aggressively create completely new ones. To succeed, today's strategists need the thought process and discipline that are second nature to successful entrepreneurs. The Entrepreneurial Mindset offers a refreshingly practical blueprint for thinking and acting in environments that are fast-paced, rapidly changing, and highly uncertain. It provides both a guide to energizing the organization to find tomorrow's opportunities and a set of entrepreneurial principles you can use personally to transform the arenas in which you compete. Using lessons drawn from leading entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial companies, The Entrepreneurial Mindset presents a set of practices for capitalizing on uncertainty and rapid change. Like McGrath and MacMillan's bestselling Harvard Business Review articles, such as "Discovery-Driven Planning," the book provides simple but powerful ways to stop acting by the old rules and start thinking with the discipline of habitual entrepreneurs. The Entrepreneurial Mindset will show you how to: * Eliminate paralyzing uncertainty by creating an entrepreneurial frame that shapes a shared understanding of what is to be accomplished and what would be worthwhile * Create a richly stocked opportunity register in which you mobilize great ideas for redesigning existing products, finding new sources of differentiation, resegmenting existing markets, reconfiguring market spaces, and seizing the huge upside potential of breakthroughs * Build a dynamic portfolio of businesses and options that continuously move your organization toward the future * Execute dynamically your ideas so that you can move fast, with confidence and without undue risk * Develop your own way of leading with an entrepreneurial mindset to create a vibrant entrepreneurial climate within your organization The Entrepreneurial Mindset is about succeeding in an unpredictable world. It will help everyone from independent entrepreneurs to managers of large corporations develop insights that others overlook and act on them to build the truly entrepreneurial organizations of the future.
Download or read book Stop Playing Safe written by Margie Warrell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-21 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tap the power of courage and achieve greater clarity, confidence, and satisfaction in your work and life Tap in to the inspirational motivation of best-selling author, life coach and media personality, Margie Warrell. Stop Playing Safe is a call to action for anyone who has ever felt that their work was not revealing their true potential for personal progression and career development. It will give you the conviction and courage to become bolder in your career, to perform better and enjoy your work more. Margie points out that ‘fear’ seems to be our new state of ‘normal’ as we deal with economic uncertainty, job insecurity and constant change management in the workplace. In times like these, all our instincts tell us to play safe and avoid risk. Yet courage and bold action are the keys to reaping the rewards of exceptional success in your career. Supported by case studies, insights and advice from a range of high-profile Australian and international entrepreneurs, Stop Playing Safe shares tactics you can put into practice to achieve personal fulfilment and professional success. It will help you clarify your career purpose and maximise your work value. It offers solutions for dealing with change management and will encourage you to pursue your career goals with renewed vigour and empowerment. Margie Warrell grew up on a dairy farm in rural Australia and has lived in the US She is the best-selling author of Find Your Courage and CEO of Global Courage Her clients include the United Nations Foundation, NASA, Ernst & Young, Bechtel, Best Buy, Accenture, AOL, Covidien, ADT, United Healthcare, and ExxonMobil You will keep coming back to this book as you move forward in your career, using it as a ready reference to progress through each stage and tackle each new challenge. "Adapting to change an taking chances are critical to your success. This book will help you with both. Get it, read it, enjoy the results." – Jon Gordon, author of The Energy Bus and The Seed. “Stop Playing Safe will help you harness the courage to take the risks that make sense-and give you the success you want." - Randy Gage, Author of Risky Is the New Safe “Practical, powerful, and inspiring. In uncertain times, it's a guidebook you can't afford not to read as it spells out exactly how to handle your challenges and find the confidence to speak up, adapt and get ahead in the new economy. Everyone in your company should read it!" - Suzi Pomerantz, author, Master coach, and CEO of Innovative Leadership International. “Stop Playing Safe is one of those rare books that is at once original, inspirational, and above all, useful.” - Bill Treasurer, President of Giant Leap Consulting and author, Courage Goes to Work. "Stop Playing Safe provides a roadmap to navigate uncertainty and find the courage to create meaningful changes in your workplace, career and life." - Rebecca Heino, Professor of Management, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University “Margie Warrell provides powerful and practical advice for overcoming our innate fear of risk and vulnerability. It bears reading and re-reading for all who strive to become their best selves." - Dr Gordon Livingston, Author of Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart "Margie is a true expert on the science of success. Her new book is both inspiring and practical. It's a powerful manual for creating the life of your dreams.” - Siimon Reynolds, author of Why People Fail
Download or read book Organizational Myopia written by Maurizio Catino and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book examines the mechanisms that generate myopia in organizations and explores how organizations can foresee and contain unexpected events.
