Download or read book On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy written by Matteo Barigozzi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time-varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative motive, represented by international financial markets, and a precautionary motive, proxied by changes in the unemployment rate. Second, relying on this finding, we propose and estimate a novel time-invariant specification for money demand which allows us (i ) to build a leading indicator of stock market busts and (ii ) to describe the anomalous behavior of M3 in the last decade. Excess liquidity matters for both financial and price stability. -- money demand ; time-varying cointegration ; price-earnings ratios ; unemployment rate ; monetary policy.
Download or read book Euro Area Money Demand written by Mr.Alessandro Calza and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2001-11-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices has long been perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the stability of euro area money demand by constructing an own rate of return on euro area M3 and by analyzing its implications in a standard money demand system. Over the sample period, one cointegrating vector relating real M3, real GDP and the spread between the short-term interest rate and the own rate of M3 can be identified and interpreted as a long-run euro area money demand equation. A dynamic money demand system is subsequently estimated. Standard diagnostics stability tests and out-of-sample forecasts confirm the good statistical performance of the model.
Download or read book On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy written by Matteo Barigozzi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a recent time-varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by means of a model evaluation exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution. First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors: a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price-earnings ratios, and a precautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the model to derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more useful for forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence points to (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financial stability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity-driven inflationary burst after the exit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.
Download or read book Money Demand in Europe written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.
Download or read book Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Otmar Issing and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-26 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.
Download or read book Money Demand in Europe written by Christian Müller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first of January 1999 marked the beginning of a macroeconomic experi ment without precedent in modern history. For the first time eleven European countries agreed to abolish their local currencies in favour of a single one, the Euro. Not surprisingly, the necessary preparatory process has been accompa nied by an intensive discussion about the best way to manage the new Euro currency properly. To spur on that discourse was the principal motivation for this thesis. The introductory chapter attempts to bridge economic and econometric views on money demand analysis. It should help to motivate estimation proce dures and to standardize interpretation techniques, hopefully initiating further discussion in that direction. It intends to make the following chapters more accessible. In this thesis I approach the general subject in two principle ways. In chapter 3 I consider technical issues dealing with time series with shifts in the mean. Two years ago, Helmut Liitkepohl and Pentti Saikkonen asked me to join in on a related project which became the cornerstone of this chapter. I have very much appreciated the highly instructive collaboration with both these scholars.
Download or read book Money Demand in the Euro Area written by Zenon Kontolemis G. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-11 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 41⁄2 percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
Download or read book Introduction of the Euro and the Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Euro area is an extremely unique and important currency area for two reasons. First, it is the single largest currency area to be created in an industrialized region. In a sense, the Euro area is important as a test case for those contemplating the establishment of new currency areas in East Asia, North America or other industrialized regions. Second, it was established by sovereign states working as peers, who, despite various challenges, peacefully and autonomously decided to create a single currency area. In other words, the Euro area is very different from other currency areas created by countries formerly in colonial relationships with each other. Therefore, for regions emerging from a developing status and forming a currency area, the Euro area could serve as a model case.Marking the 10th anniversary of the creation of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Euro, this invaluable book analyzes the monetary policy of the ECB — the guardian of the Euro — by using recently developed econometric methods. The analysis performed in this book marks a substantial contribution toward understanding the significance of the Euro area as well as the future of the Euro from an international perspective.
Download or read book Negative Interest Rate Policy NIRP written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Download or read book Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-10-29 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.
Download or read book Demand for Money in the Euro Area written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyzed the stability of the money demand function using panel data from January 1999 through March 2006, covering the 11 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain). First, we found that the money demand function was stable with respect to M3. This arguably supports the suitability of the ECB's focus on M3 money supply in its monetary policy. Second, the stability of the money demand function was recognized with respect not only to M3, but also to M1 and M2. Accordingly, the ECB's adoption of M1 or M2 growth as a reference value should probably be considered depending on how conditions change going forward.
Download or read book The New Monetary Policy written by Philip Arestis and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: . . . this book provides a useful overview of the challenges facing the IT policy framework, both by pointing to the limitations of the underlying theory and, more importantly, by outlining the importance of a transparent policy framework for anchoring expectations. . . the book should be of interest to all central bankers and students of monetary policy. Colin Rogers, Economic Record Recent developments in macroeconomic and monetary thinking have given a new impetus to the management of the economy. The use of monetary policy by way of manipulating the rate of interest to affect inflation is now well accepted by both academic economists and central bank practitioners. Beginning with an assessment of new thinking in macroeconomics and monetary theory, this book suggests that many countries have adopted the New Consensus Monetary Policy since the early 1990s in an attempt to reduce inflation to low levels. It goes on to illustrate that the explicit control of the money supply, which was fashionable in the 1970s and 1980s in the UK, US, Europe and elsewhere, was abandoned in favour of monetary rules that focus on interest rate manipulation by the central bank. The objective of these rules is to achieve specific, or a range of, inflation targets. Bringing together a distinguished cast of international contributors, this book presents a collection of papers, which discuss the following issues amongst others: the stability of the macroeconomic equilibrium monetary policy divergences in the Euro area stock market prices the US post- new economy bubble the information economy inflation targeting. This useful analysis of New Consensus Monetary Policy will be of great interest to financial economists and international monetary economists, as well as students and scholars of macroeconomics and finance.
Download or read book Re Vitalizing Money Demand in the Euro Area Still Valid at the Zero Lower Bound written by Christian Dreger and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well-documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero-lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re-investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well-identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long-term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero-lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.
Download or read book Background Studies for the ECB s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy written by Otmar Issing and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Stability in Europe written by Stefan Collignon and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, the author presents fresh perspectives on the theories surrounding European Monetary Union. Urging the reader to examine conventional ideas from new viewpoints, he discusses the events which led to EMU, analyses the current situation, and projects possible futures. Essential reading for academics and professionals concerned with the background and implications of EMU, this book will also be of considerable interest to scholars in the fields of European studies, monetary economics, international economics and economic history.
Download or read book Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in Europe written by Volker Clausen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The euro and the ESCB have started in January 1999 and there is naturally a wide-ranging interest in academia and among policymakers in OECD coun tries, how successful European Monetary Union will and can be. EMU has started with 11 countries and experienced a rapid depreciation of the cur rency. With so many EU countries joining for a historical monetary union in a period of economic globalization, international financial market changes and ongoing EU enlargement the problem of monetary policy efficiency becomes crucial; especially as so many countries in the EU still have high unemploy ment rates and the euro has just started at the beginning of a cyclical upswing in the euro zone. Monetary policy is also quite crucial, because the Maastricht convergence criteria severely restrict the scope of national fiscal policy. With a very limited stock of valuable European monetary experience which could be usefully exploited by the ECB and the ESCB respectively, one naturally will appreciate advanced economic modeling of the main issues. This book takes an analytical look at the problem of asymmetric monetary transmission in Euroland. Facing the ECB's monetary policy, individual mem ber countries are likely to experience different policy effects. Countries differ in their financial structure -a well-known argument in the literature -but also in the characteristics of goods and labor markets. The latter fields have been somewhat neglected in the literature but receive broad analytical attention here.
Download or read book Money Demand in the Euro Area written by Ralph Setzer and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Conventional money demand specifications in the euro area have become unstable since 2001. We specify a money demand equation in deviations of individual euro area Member States variables from the euro area average and show that the income elasticity as well as the interest rate semi-elasticity remains stable. The corresponding deep parameters of the utility function have not changed. Aggregate money demand instability does therefore not result from altered standard factors determining the preference for holding money. Instead, other factors determine the aggregate monetary overhang. Since monetary developments cannot easily be explained by changing preferences, they should be closely monitored and might be a sign of imbalances."--Document home p.
