Download or read book On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Solar terrestrial Predictions Proceedings Prediction group reports written by Richard Frank Donnelly and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number During the Rise of the Cycle from T written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Solar Dynamics Observatory written by Phillip Chamberlin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-05-05 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which was launched 11 February 2010. The articles focus on the spacecraft and its instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Articles within also describe calibration results and data processing pipelines that are critical to understanding the data and products, concluding with a description of the successful Education and Public Outreach activities. This book is geared towards anyone interested in using the unprecedented data from SDO, whether for fundamental heliophysics research, space weather modeling and forecasting, or educational purposes. Previously published in Solar Physics journal, Vol. 275/1-2, 2012. Selected articles in this book are published open access under a CC BY-NC 2.5 license at link.springer.com. For further details, please see the license information in the chapters.
Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by Myung-Hee Y. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
Download or read book Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Sun in Time written by Charles Philip Sonett and published by University of Arizona Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 1040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An interdisciplinary approach to solar physics, as eighty-nine contributors trace the evolution of the Sun and provide a review of our current understanding of both its structure and its role in the origin and evolution of the solar system.
Download or read book A Physical Mechanism for the Prediction of the Sunspot Number During Solar Cycle 21 written by Stanford University. Institute for Plasma Research and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimates is a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.
Download or read book On Solar Cycle Predictions and Reconstructions written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Generally, there are two procedures for solar cycle predictions: the empirical methods - statistical methods based on extrapolations and precursor methods - and methods based on dynamo models. Aims. The goal of the present analysis is to forecast the strength and epochs of the next solar cycle, to investigate proxies for grand solar minima and to reconstruct the relative sunspot number in the Maunder minimum. Methods. We calculate the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases (Method 1) and use this parameter as a prow for solar activity on longer time scales. Further, we correlate the relative sunspot numbers in the epochs of solar activity minima and maxima (Method 2) and estimate the parameters of an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA, Method 3). Finally, the power spectrum of data obtained with the Method 1 is analysed and the Methods 1 and 3 are combined. Results. Signatures of the Maunder. Dalton and Gleissberg minima were found with Method 1. A period of about 70 years, somewhat shorter than the Gleissberg period was identified in the asymmetry data. The maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number during the Maunder minimum was reconstructed and found to be in the range 0-35 (Method 1). The estimated Wolf number (also called the relative sunspot number) of the next solar maximum is in the range 88-102 (Method 2). Method 3 predicts the next solar maximum between 2011 and 2012 and the next solar minimum for 2017. Also, it forecasts the relative sunspot number in the next maximum to be 90 +/- 27. A combination of the Methods 1 and 3 gives for the next solar maximum relative sunspot numbers between 78 and 99. Conclusions. The asymmetry parameter provided by Method 1 is a good proxy for solar activity in the past, also in the periods for which no relative sunspot numbers are available. Our prediction for the next solar cycle No. 24 is that it will be weaker than the last cycle, No. 23. This prediction is based on various independent methods.
Download or read book Results of the Spectroscopic and Photographic Observations written by Royal Greenwich Observatory and published by . This book was released on 1902 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Space Weather written by Ryuho Kataoka and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-04-26 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Space Weather not only allows readers to learn the basics of complex space weather phenomena and future directions for research in space physics and extreme space events. The book begins with a brief overview of space weather, including sunspot cycles, solar winds and geomagnetic fields. From there, the book moves on to extreme space weather phenomena, including mass coronal ejections, solar flares and magnetic storms. The book also includes a discussion of both observed and theoretical extreme events. This book is ideal for students and researchers in geophysics and space physics departments, as well as those in hazard and disaster preparedness. Focuses on extreme space weather and its impacts on Earth, the Moon and Mars Includes hazard maps showing data and impacts on Earth from extreme space weather events Presents research on both observed and theoretical extreme events
Download or read book Sunspot Cycle Simulation Using a Narrowband Gaussian Process written by James Allen Barnes and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Solar Activity Prediction written by and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Download or read book A Comparative Look at Sunspot Cycles written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. Langley Research Center NASA/TP-2000-210536, L-18020, NAS 1.60:210536
Download or read book The Discovery of Global Warming written by Spencer R. Weart and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001 a panel representing virtually all the world's governments and climate scientists announced that they had reached a consensus: the world was warming at a rate without precedent during at least the last ten millennia, and that warming was caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases from human activity. The consensus itself was at least a century in the making. The story of how scientists reached their conclusion--by way of unexpected twists and turns and in the face of formidable intellectual, financial, and political obstacles--is told for the first time in The Discovery of Global Warming. Spencer R. Weart lucidly explains the emerging science, introduces us to the major players, and shows us how the Earth's irreducibly complicated climate system was mirrored by the global scientific community that studied it. Unlike familiar tales of Science Triumphant, this book portrays scientists working on bits and pieces of a topic so complex that they could never achieve full certainty--yet so important to human survival that provisional answers were essential. Weart unsparingly depicts the conflicts and mistakes, and how they sometimes led to fruitful results. His book reminds us that scientists do not work in isolation, but interact in crucial ways with the political system and with the general public. The book not only reveals the history of global warming, but also analyzes the nature of modern scientific work as it confronts the most difficult questions about the Earth's future. Table of Contents: Preface 1. How Could Climate Change? 2. Discovering a Possibility 3. A Delicate System 4. A Visible Threat 5. Public Warnings 6. The Erratic Beast 7. Breaking into Politics 8. The Discovery Confirmed Reflections Milestones Notes Further Reading Index Reviews of this book: A soberly written synthesis of science and politics. --Gilbert Taylor, Booklist Reviews of this book: Charting the evolution and confirmation of the theory [of global warming], Spencer R. Weart, director of the Center for the History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, dissects the interwoven threads of research and reveals the political and societal subtexts that colored scientists' views and the public reception their work received. --Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times Book Review Reviews of this book: It took a century for scientists to agree that gases produced by human activity were causing the world to warm up. Now, in an engaging book that reads like a detective story, physicist Weart reports the history of global warming theory, including the internal conflicts plaguing the research community and the role government has had in promoting climate studies. --Publishers Weekly Reviews of this book: It is almost two centuries since the French mathematician Jean Baptiste Fourier discovered that the Earth was far warmer than it had any right to be, given its distance from the Sun...Spencer Weart's book about how Fourier's initially inconsequential discovery finally triggered urgent debate about the future habitability of the Earth is lucid, painstaking and commendably brief, packing everything into 200 pages. --Fred Pearce, The Independent Reviews of this book: [The Discovery of Global Warming] is a well-written, well-researched and well-balanced account of the issues involved...This is not a sermon for the faithful, or verses from Revelation for the evangelicals, but a serious summary for those who like reasoned argument. Read it--and be converted. --John Emsley, Times Literary Supplement Reviews of this book: This is a terrific book...Perhaps the finest compliment I could give this book is to report that I intend to use it instead of my own book...for my climate class. The Discovery of Global Warming is more up-to-date, better balanced historically, beautifully written and, not least important, short and to the point. I think the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] needs to enlist a few good historians like Weart for its next assessment. --Stephen H. Schneider, Nature Reviews of this book: This short, well-written book by a science historian at the American Institute of Physics adds a serious voice to the overheated debate about global warming and would serve as a great starting point for anyone who wants to better understand the issue. --Maureen Christie, American Scientist Reviews of this book: I was very pleasantly surprised to find that Spencer Weart's account provides much valuable and interesting material about how the discipline developed--not just from the perspective of climate science but also within the context of the field's relation to other scientific disciplines, the media, political trends, and even 20th-century history (particularly the Cold War). In addition, Weart has done a valuable service by recording for posterity background information on some of the key discoveries and historical figures who contributed to our present understanding of the global warming problem. --Thomas J. Crowley, Science Reviews of this book: Weart has done us all a service by bringing the discovery of global warming into a short, compendious and persuasive book for a general readership. He is especially strong on the early days and the scientific background. --Crispin Tickell, Times Higher Education Supplement A Capricious Beast Ever since the days when he had trudged around fossil lake basins in Nevada for his doctoral thesis, Wally Broecker had been interested in sudden climate shifts. The reported sudden jumps of CO2 in Greenland ice cores stimulated him to put this interest into conjunction with his oceanographic interests. The result was a surprising and important calculation. The key was what Broecker later described as a "great conveyor belt'"of seawater carrying heat northward. . . . The energy carried to the neighborhood of Iceland was "staggering," Broecker realized, nearly a third as much as the Sun sheds upon the entire North Atlantic. If something were to shut down the conveyor, climate would change across much of the Northern Hemisphere' There was reason to believe a shutdown could happen swiftly. In many regions the consequences for climate would be spectacular. Broecker was foremost in taking this disagreeable news to the public. In 1987 he wrote that we had been treating the greenhouse effect as a 'cocktail hour curiosity,' but now 'we must view it as a threat to human beings and wildlife.' The climate system was a capricious beast, he said, and we were poking it with a sharp stick. I found the book enjoyable, thoughtful, and an excellent introduction to the history of what may be one of the most important subjects of the next one hundred years. --Clark Miller, University of Wisconsin The Discovery of Global Warming raises important scientific issues and topics and includes essential detail. Readers should be able to follow the discussion and emerge at the end with a good understanding of how scientists have developed a consensus on global warming, what it is, and what issues now face human society. --Thomas R. Dunlap, Texas A&M University
Download or read book The Sunspot activity in the Years 1610 1960 written by Max Waldmeier and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
