Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modern Econometric Analysis written by Olaf Hübler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-29 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book leading German econometricians in different fields present survey articles of the most important new methods in econometrics. The book gives an overview of the field and it shows progress made in recent years and remaining problems.
Download or read book Bayesian Statistics 9 written by José M. Bernardo and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-06 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian statistics is a dynamic and fast-growing area of statistical research and the Valencia International Meetings provide the main forum for discussion. These resulting proceedings form an up-to-date collection of research.
Download or read book Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-11 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea—price equals expected discounted payoff—that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model—consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing—is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.
Download or read book Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Download or read book Time Series in High Dimension the General Dynamic Factor Model written by Marc Hallin and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2020-03-30 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.
Download or read book Advances in Business and Management Forecasting written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aims to present the studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, finance, health care, and strategic decision making.
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Download or read book Finance written by R.A. Jarrow and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1995-12-15 with total page 1204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hardbound. The Handbook of Finance is a primary reference work for financial economics and financial modeling students, faculty and practitioners. The expository treatments are suitable for masters and PhD students, with discussions leading from first principles to current research, with reference to important research works in the area. The Handbook is intended to be a synopsis of the current state of various aspects of the theory of financial economics and its application to important financial problems. The coverage consists of thirty-three chapters written by leading experts in the field. The contributions are in two broad categories: capital markets and corporate finance.
Download or read book Data Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models written by Mr.Maxym Kryshko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.
Download or read book A Fallacy of Composition written by Ricardo J. Caballero and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The representative agent framework has endowed macroeconomists with powerful microeconomic tools. Unfortunately, it has also blurred the distinction between statements that are valid at the individual level from those that apply to the aggregate. In this paper I argue that probability theory puts strong restrictions on the joint behavior of a large number of units that are less than fully synchronized, and that many fallacies arise from disregarding these restrictions. For example, the observation that the aggregate price level is more rigid to downward changes than to upward changes, has led many authors to suggest asymmetries at the firm level as responsible for the alleged macroeconomic fact. However, the basic insight developed in this paper shows that asymmetric pricing policies at the firm level do not necessarily imply asymmetries in upward and downward adjustments of the aggregate price level; and asymmetries in the aggregate price level need not come from asymmetries at the firm level. Similarly, asymmetric factor adjustment costs at the firm level need not imply asymmetric responses of the aggregate capital stock and the level of employment to positive and negative shocks.
Download or read book Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model written by Mr.Maxym Kryshko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon Boivin and Giannoni (2006), we relax these two assumptions and estimate a fairly simple monetary DSGE model on a richer data set. Using post-1983 U.S.data on real output, inflation, nominal interest rates, measures of inverse money velocity, and a large panel of informational series, we compare the data-rich DSGE model with the regular - few observables, perfect measurement - DSGE model in terms of deep parameter estimates, propagation of monetary policy and technology shocks and sources of business cycle fluctuations. We document that the data-rich DSGE model generates a higher implied duration of Calvo price contracts and a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. To reduce the computational costs of the likelihood-based estimation, we employed a novel speedup as in Jungbacker and Koopman (2008) and achieved the time savings of 60 percent.
Download or read book Wage Dispersion Between and Within U S Manufacturing Plants 1963 1986 written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper exploits a rich and largely untapped source of information on the wages and other characteristics of individual manufacturing plants to cast new light on recent changes in the United States wage structure. Our primary data source, the Longitudinal Research Datafile (LRD) , contains observations on more than 300,000 manufacturing plants during Census years (1963, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982) and 50,000-70,000 plants during intercensus years since 1972. We use the information in the LRD to investigate changes in the plant-wage structure over the past three decades. We also combine plant-level wage observations in the LRD with wage observations on individual workers in the Current Population Survey (CPS) to estimate the between-plant and within-plant components of overall wage dispersion.
Download or read book Financial Asset Pricing Theory written by Claus Munk and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-04-18 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents models for the pricing of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and options. The models are formulated and analyzed using concepts and techniques from mathematics and probability theory. It presents important classic models and some recent 'state-of-the-art' models that outperform the classics.
