Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Maize farmers Monsoon season phone surveys written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-10-29 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Mechanization service providers July 2023 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-09-18 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A phone survey was conducted in July 2023 to understand the effects of political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs) that are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, which is the 11th in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Mechanization service providers January 2022 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-25 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A phone survey was conducted in January 2022 to understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs), crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the eighth in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Mechanization service providers January 2023 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-04-28 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A phone survey was conducted in January 2023 to understand the effects of COVID‑19 and political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs). MSPs are crucial to enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, the tenth in a series of phone surveys, and trends from earlier surveys.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural crop traders September 2021 survey written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-10-29 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural input retailers July 2022 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of political instability, COVID-19, and other shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 252 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in July 2022.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural input retailers August 2023 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-09-28 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023. Key Findings • Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022. • Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022. • The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs. • Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs. • More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high. • The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels. Looking Forward • Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production. • However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons. • More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural input retailers September 2021 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-10-25 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Rice millers March 2023 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-07-21 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In March 2023, we interviewed more than 430 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain. Key findings  High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.  Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.  Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.  Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.  Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural input retailers June 2021 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-07-07 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To understand the effects of recent disruptions on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of input retailers was conducted in June 2021. Key findings: ▪ Prices of key agricultural inputs–fertilizer, pesticides, maize seed, and vegetable seed– are higher in June 2021 compared to June 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19. Onaverage, urea fertilizer prices are 52 percent higher and compound fertilizer prices are 29 percent higher. ▪ Reported input sales are much lower in June 2021 than in June 2020, with fertilizer sales volumes 48 percent lower on average and maize seed 39 percent lower on average. ▪ There continue to be widespread business disruptions stemming from political instability. Issues in the banking sector are the biggest disruption for 75 percent of our sample, though 84 percent also reported higher transportation costs. ▪ Nearly two-thirds of interviewed input retailers have offered inputs on credit to farmers this monsoon season. However, 79 percent intend to decrease their total value of credit compared to last year. Only 22 percent of input retailers reported that farmers in their area received MADB loans for the 2021 monsoon season. ▪ During the third wave of COVID-19 in Myanmar, adoption of safety practices is much lower than during the first wave. Sixty percent of input retailers adopted at least one practice, but only 44 percent were regularly washing their hands and only 47 percent were wearing masks. ▪ Higher input costs and lower access to credit will likely result in lower purchased input use and lower yields for monsoon crops. Measures to support combine harvesting and post-harvest management (e.g., drying) could help minimize further yield loss.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural crop traders August 2022 survey written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-11-01 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Agricultural crop traders April 2023 survey written by Myanmar SSP Research Note and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-07-27 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions. Key Findings • Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior. • In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022. • Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading. Looking Ahead • High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects. • For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency. • Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.

Download or read book Myanmar agricultural performance survey Monsoon 2022 Farm commercialization written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-07-28 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the monsoon of 2022, based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with almost 5,000 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country, over the period February – March 2023. It is found that:  The security situation is worrisome for farmers. 27 percent of the farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’ during the period of the interview. 23 percent of the farmers reported that they could not move around without serious concern for security while 9 percent reported that some agricultural fields could not be cultivated because of conflict in their area.  Agricultural inputs were mostly available during the 2022 monsoon period. Chemical fertilizers were reported to not be available for 7 percent of farmers. However, it was difficult to access labor for 14 percent of the farmers. Conflict-affected areas suffered substantially more from labor availability problems.  Input prices during the monsoon season of 2022 increased compared to the same period in 2021 by 60 percent for urea, 33 percent for mechanization, and 17 and 16 percent for hired labor of men and women, respectively.  Farmgate prices are all on the rise compared to a year earlier. Paddy prices increased by 80 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices (an increase of 22 percent between 02/22 and 02/23) as well as the depreciation of the MMK (by 46 percent, for rice export under the imposed 65 percent official exchange rate – 35 percent market exchange rate export rule).  Other farm prices showed mostly lower price increases. Maize prices increased by 47 percent, groundnut by 47 percent, and sesame by 41 percent compared to a year earlier. The lowest price increase was seen in the case of rubber, which only increased by 23 percent.  Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to last. Small farms and farms in insecure areas however saw lower crop sales income increases. Recommended Actions:  The increasing insecurity in the country is hampering the functioning of agricultural markets (leading to lower availability of agricultural inputs and lower incomes). An improved security situation is called for.  Small farmers are relatively worse off compared to other farmers. They would benefit from support to their agricultural operations, potentially through agricultural cash programs.

Download or read book Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Monsoon 2023 Farming environment and farm commercialization written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2024-06-03 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have analyzed the farming environment and farm commercialization situation for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed almost 4,400 crop producers in the monsoon, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: The security situation in Myanmar continues to pose concerns for farmers, impacting their commercialization practices. During the interview period (January – March 2024): 1.1) 31 percent of farmers reported feeling 'very insecure' or 'insecure'. 1.2) 22 percent expressed serious security concerns while moving around. 1.3) 8 percent stated that conflict in their area prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields. 1.4) 1.4 percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. 1.5) 11 percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction. Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area - the country's rice bowl - experiencing relatively better conditions. Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about a quarter of Burmese farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the monsoon and post/premonsoon periods. This situation is exacerbated in conflict-affected areas such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah, with Rakhine experiencing a dramatic worsening in recent months, with 81 percent of farmers reporting fuel scarcity in the post/pre-monsoon period. Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2023 monsoon season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 4 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers, while 6 percent faced difficulties in accessing mechanization and 18 percent in securing agricultural labor. Input prices increased during the 2023 monsoon compared to the same period in 2022, with mechanized plowing costs rising by 20 percent, and hired labor costs for men and women increasing by 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Conversely, urea prices decreased by 15 percent. In the post/pre-monsoon of 2024, wages saw substantial increases compared to the monsoon, especially for men, with a 15 percent rise, possibly linked to the new conscription law. Nearly all crop prices increased compared to the previous monsoon. Paddy prices surged by 64 percent. Conversely, maize prices experienced an 11 percent decrease, likely due to transportation issues via Myawaddy, the border town for trade with Thailand. Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to the previous one. However, 14 percent of farmers reported lower sales incomes. Farmers in remote and conflict-affected areas face significant disadvantages in farm commercialization. Insecurity and isolation are primarily linked to higher input costs, while output prices are similar or lower compared to secure and well-connected areas. Consequently, farming profitability in these regions is reduced, impacting farmers' income and welfare.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers June 2020 February 2023 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-04-24 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings  Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent.  Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023.  The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022.  Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average.  The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022.  Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions  Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.  Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs.  It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.

Download or read book Monitoring the impact of COVID 19 in Myanmar Agricultural input retailers June 2020 survey round written by Goeb, Joseph and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agricultural input retailers play a key role in Myanmar’s agri-food system by supplying farmers with fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and other inputs necessary for successful harvests. Because farm-level input use is an important driver of yields for all major food crops, shocks to the input retail sector have major implications for the welfare of rural households, as well as for their food security. This policy note presents results from round two of a five-round phone survey of agricultural input retailers. Our purpose is to provide data and insights to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation (MOALI) and other agricultural sector stakeholders to assist them in better understanding COVID-19 related shocks to Myanmar’s agricultural input retailers. The round one results emphasized (i) widespread disruptions from the COVID-19 to both input supply and demand, (ii) higher transportation costs leading to higher input prices, and (iii) dramatically lower revenue expectations for retailers in 2020 compared to 2019.1 This note builds on the round one results by (i) exploring the effects of the COVID-19 crisis since the first-round interviews, (ii) tracking sales changes since the first round of the survey, and (iii) providing more detailed information on retailer credit and transportation.

Download or read book Monitoring the agri food system in Myanmar Rice millers August 2023 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-11-15 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In August 2023, we surveyed 388 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews. Key findings • Patterns of reported business disruptions show substantial improvements compared to a year ago, but limited changes since March 2023. Access to electricity remained the most common disruption and was reported to be the biggest challenge by more than half of the sample. Fuel cost, fuel access, and transportation costs were also common disruptions although they are far less common than in August 2022. • Larger mills mostly use electricity and are therefore most impacted by the persistent electrical supply issues. Yet some have expanded their power sources in the past three years by investing in electricity generators powered by husks or fuel. • Despite the challenges, milling throughput in 2023 is similar to 2022. However, paddy and rice storage volumes are significantly lower this year, while conditional average amount of credit provided to farmers increased significantly during the 2023 monsoon season. • Paddy and rice prices continued their rapid upward trajectory that began in mid-2022 and in August were 80 percent higher than one year prior and 2.5 times the price from 2021. The local Myanmar price changes are largely driven by global rice markets and foreign exchange rates. Looking forward • Recent policies to keep consumer rice prices low – including efforts to control rice prices and to limit export licensing – along with erratic foreign exchange policies can lead to increased price volatility and uncertainty for farmers, traders, millers, and exporters. If domestic paddy and rice prices fall because of these interventions, millers and farmers are less likely to recover investment costs, pay off debts, and make profits for further investment in next year’s productions.