Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Stream Temperature in the Nooksack River Basin written by Stephanie E. Truitt and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stream temperatures in mountain streams in the western Cascade Mountains are heavily influenced by factors such as discharge, air temperature, and as in the case of the Nooksack River Basin in northwest Washington State; snow and glacial melt. The Nooksack basin is sensitive to warming climates due to the regions moderate Pacific maritime climate. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century due to global climate change. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model to simulate hydrology and the River Basin Model (RBM) to model stream temperature from present to the year 2090 in the North, Middle, and South forks of the Nooksack River basin. We simulate forecasted climate change effects on hydrology and stream temperature using gridded daily statically downscaled data from 10 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) with two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature into the 21st century in all three forks of the Nooksack. There is a strong correlation between rising stream temperatures and warming air temperatures, decreasing stream discharge; and snow and glacial meltwater. We find that the highest stream temperatures and the greatest monthly mean 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature (7-DADMax) values are predicted in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouth of the South Fork is forecasted to have a mean of 115 days above the 16 °C 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature threshold. Streams in the Middle and North fork basins with higher elevations that sustain more snow and glacier ice are slower to respond to warming climates due to meltwater contributions, especially in the next 50 years. Towards the end of this century, when snowpack and glacial volume is greatly decreased, the buffering effect of meltwater declines, and the North and Middle forks experience larger increases in mean daily stream temperature. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouths of the Middle and North forks are forecasted to have means of 35 and 23 days, respectively, above the 16 °C 7-DADMax threshold.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change Forecasts on Streamflow in the Nooksack River Basin written by Susan E. Dickerson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2300 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a high relief, snow-dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin is strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and variable changes to precipitation in western Washington, which will affect streamflow, snowpack, and glaciers in the Nooksack River basin. Anticipating the response of the river to climate change is crucial for water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. I combined modeled climate forecasts and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River, east of the confluence near Deming, Washington. The DHSVM is a physically based, spatially distributed hydrology model that simulates a water and energy balance at the pixel scale of a digital elevation model. I used recent meteorological and landcover data to calibrate and validate the DHSVM. Coarse-resolution GCM forecasts were downscaled to the Nooksack basin following the methods of previous regional studies (e.g., Palmer, 2007) for use as local-scale meteorological input to the calibrated DHSVM. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the Nooksack River basin predict a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable predictions of the climate change forecasts and local natural variability. Simulation results forecast increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. Modeling results for future peak flow events indicate an increase in both the frequency and magnitudes of floods, but uncertainties are high for modeling the absolute magnitudes of peak flows. These results are consistent with previous regional studies which document that temperature-related effects on precipitation and melting are driving changes to snow-melt dominated basins (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009).

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin written by Ryan D. Murphy and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow and Stream Temperature in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River written by Katherine Mary Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Stillaguamish River in northwest Washington State is an important regional water resource for local agriculture, industry, and First Nations tribes and a critical habitat for several threatened and endangered salmonid species, including the Chinook salmon. The river is currently subject to a temperature total maximum daily load, so it is important to understand how projected climate change will affect future stream temperatures and thus salmon populations. Snowpack is the main contributor to spring and summer streamflow and helps to mitigate stream temperatures as air temperatures rise through the summer in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River. I used gridded historical meteorological data to calibrate the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model and then applied downscaled, gridded projected climate data to predict how a changing climate will influence hydrology and stream temperature in the South Fork basin through the end of the 21st century.

Download or read book Modeling 21st Century Peak Flows in the Nooksack River Basin in Northwestern Washington State Using Dynamically downscaled Global Climate Model Projections written by Evan A. Paul and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides freshwater for agriculture, municipal, and industrial use and serves as a vital habitat for endangered salmon, a resource that is of cultural and economic importance to the Nooksack Indian Tribe and the surrounding region. Due to the complex topography in the basin and the mild maritime climate of the Puget Sound region, streamflow in the Nooksack River is highly sensitive to fluctuations in air temperature. Global climate models (GCMs) project an increase in air temperatures for the Puget Sound region, and previous modeling within the Nooksack basin projects a reduction in snowpack extent through the 21st century and an increase in winter streamflow magnitude. As more landscape becomes exposed to rain rather than snow and heavy winter precipitation events intensify, peak flows and sediment delivery to streams will likely increase due to rapid runoff, resulting in salmon habitat degradation and increased flood risk. Thus, anticipating the effect of climate change on peak flows is crucial for salmon habitat restoration efforts and flood mitigation planning. To quantify the timing and magnitude of future peak flows, I use a calibrated Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and meteorological forcings from an ensemble of high-emission GCMs dynamically-downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Due to the variability of climate scenarios depicted by GCMs, a range of streamflow and snowpack magnitude changes in the Nooksack River basin are projected by the hydrology simulations. By the end of the 21st century, results indicate a decrease in annual peak snow-water equivalent (-72% to -82%), a shift in the timing of peak snow-water equivalent to approximately one month earlier, an increase in winter flows (+31% to +56%), a decrease in summer flows (-37% to -72%), and the disappearance of the snowmelt derived spring peak in the hydrograph as the basin transitions from transient to rain-dominant. These results are consistent with previous modeling in the Nooksack River basin and other regional climate change studies in the Pacific Northwest and Puget Sound region. Due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow and heavy rain events becoming more frequent and intense, future peak flows are projected to increase in magnitude by 34-60% across all flow durations and return periods that were analyzed, with the largest changes occurring in the high relief subbasins. The frequency of high magnitude, flood-inducing peak flows will also increase into the future, lengthening the flood season by approximately three months.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on Hydrology and Stream Temperatures in the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River written by Kyra Freeman and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecast modeling indicates that the North Fork watershed will transition from a snow- to rain-dominated basin into the 21st century as a result of increasing air temperatures. More precipitation in the winter will fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in up to a 43% increase in streamflow and a 56% decline in basin-wide snowpack. The reduced snowpack will melt out earlier and cause a decrease in spring and summer streamflow. Simulations of stream temperature indicate rising temperatures in every stream segment in the basin by the end of the 21st century as a result of higher air temperatures, declining snowpack, and lower summer streamflow. Monthly average stream temperatures could increase by up to 7.4°C. In addition, the temperature thresholds for every life cycle of endangered salmon species are increasingly exceeded through time, putting at risk already endangered salmon species. By the end of the 21st century, the main stem may experience up to a 10-fold increase in number of days per year exceeding salmon temperature thresholds. Reach-scale predictions of stream temperature trends through the basin offer water resource managers a tool for focusing riparian and groundwater restoration efforts.

Download or read book The Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Mass Wasting Susceptibility in the Nooksack River Basin written by Kevin Knapp and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River in Whatcom County, Washington is an essential fresh water resource for industry, agriculture, municipalities and serves as vital fish habitat. Like many mountainous watersheds in the western Cascades, the Nooksack Basin is susceptible to shallow mass wasting and debris flows because of its steep slopes, young glaciated terrain, and storms with high intensity precipitation. Understanding how projected reductions in snowpack and increased winter rainfall will affect mass - wasting susceptibility in the Nooksack basin is important, because sediment produced mass wasting will jeopardize valuable aquatic and fish habitat, increase flooding risk in the Nooksack River, and affect estuarine and coastal dynamics. With a projected 60% decrease in snow pack and increase in the snowline elevation by the 2075 climate normal, there will be an increase in exposed forest roads, harvestable forest areas, and previously mapped landslides, which are all documented to increase sediment delivery to streams. Retreating glaciers will produce at least 2 km 2 of exposed moraines, which have the potential to erode, fail and provide additional sediment to streams, especially during large storm events coinciding with minimum snowpack during the fall and early spring seasons . I applied a static infinite - slope ArcGIS model and a dynamic, probabilistic mass - wasting model integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the Nooksack River watershed to determine areas susceptible to mass wasting into the 21 st century. Susceptibility maps produced by the models indicate an increase in regions susceptible to slope failure during the winter months in snow free areas at higher elevations later in the 21 st century. Slope failure susceptibility increased with soil saturation, which is anticipated with higher intense winter rainfall events. Slopes greater than about 30° with thick regolith deposits and lower soil mechanical strength, e.g., sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, silt, moraines, glacial outwash and former landslide deposits were correlated with higher mass - wasting susceptibility. The simpler static ArcGIS infinite - slope model yielded comparable results to the more complex probabilistic method integrated into the DHSVM for identifying areas susceptible to mass wasting.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Projected Climate Warming on Stream Temperatures in the Stillaguamish River Basin written by Emily Esther Gebheim Smoot and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Stillaguamish River is a snow-and-rain mixed basin and the fifth largest river in the Puget Sound basin. Elevations in the 1700 km2 Stillaguamish River basin reach roughly 2000 m and historically a snowpack is sustained above 1000 m. Snowmelt in the basin is important for sustaining spring and summer streamflow and buffering stream temperatures. Stream temperature increases are of significant concern because of the threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population. I reexamined projected stream temperatures in the Stillaguamish River by forcing the coupled Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model with dynamically downscaled meteorological forcings from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and projected changes in the entire basin, including the Pilchuck subbasin and mainstem through 2099 by applying 12 dynamically downscaled Global Climate Models with high emission scenarios of RCP 8.5. Using an updated version of the River Basin Model, I applied tributary specific calibration parameters and calibrated modeled streamflow and temperature using historical gauges and field measurements. My model calibrations and projections are consistent with other modeling studies in the Stillaguamish and other western Cascade watersheds. Snow covered area in the basin is projected to decrease by 74%, and summer streamflow decreases for the primary locations and at-risk tributaries are projected to be 48% and 53%, respectively for July and August at the end of the century. With the decreases in snowpack and streamflow, stream temperatures reach their peak earlier in the year, in July instead of August which was historically the warmest month. Stream temperatures are projected to increase by 14% on average for the larger primary reaches and 21% for the smaller at-risk tributaries by the 2080s for July and August. The greatest stream temperature increases are in mountainous reaches due to a reduced snowpack. The warmest stream temperatures are projected to occur in late summer along the mainstem of the Stillaguamish River. By the end of the century, six of nine locations examined will exceed the seven-day average daily maximum adult Chinook salmon lethality threshold (22.0 °C). These results indicate that continued work on climate adaptation actions and research will be required to improve Chinook salmon resiliency in the Stillaguamish River as the climate warms.

Download or read book Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Streamflows Stream Temperatures and Fish Thermal Habitat written by Omid Mohseni and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States written by Julie Koppel Maldonado and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-04-05 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a long history and deep connection to the Earth’s resources, indigenous peoples have an intimate understanding and ability to observe the impacts linked to climate change. Traditional ecological knowledge and tribal experience play a key role in developing future scientific solutions for adaptation to the impacts. The book explores climate-related issues for indigenous communities in the United States, including loss of traditional knowledge, forests and ecosystems, food security and traditional foods, as well as water, Arctic sea ice loss, permafrost thaw and relocation. The book also highlights how tribal communities and programs are responding to the changing environments. Fifty authors from tribal communities, academia, government agencies and NGOs contributed to the book. Previously published in Climatic Change, Volume 120, Issue 3, 2013.

Download or read book Estimating Water Temperatures in Small Streams in Western Oregon Using Neural Network Models written by John C. Risley and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow of the Nicolet River as Affected by Snowmelt Using ArcSWAT written by Fei Tang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " In the Nicolet River watershed of Southern Quebec, Canada, runoff resulting from snowmelt is responsible for the spring peak flow, which may result in flooding when temperature rises rapidly in a short time. In this study, streamflow modeling for the Nicolet River watershed was conducted, then the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this basin were studied by comparing the streamflow characteristics of historical and projected future climate data under a wide range of climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated against the observed streamflow for the period of 1986-1990 and 1991-2000, respectively. The ArcSWAT model was shown to be a reliable tool for simulating the stream flow (PBIAS within 15%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.50 and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR)

Download or read book Simulation of Climate change Effects on Streamflow Lake Water Budgets and Stream Temperature Using GSFLOW and SNTEMP Trout Lake Watershed Wisconsin written by R. J. Hunt and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Major Watersheds of Western North America written by Daniel Barandiaran and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Variability in the North Fork of Elk Creek Experimental Watershed West Central Montana written by Katie Marie Jorgensen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in a Sub basin of the Lower Churchill River Labrador written by Amy Pryse-Phillips and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evaluation of Prediction Models and Characterization of Stream Temperature Regimes in Washington Final report written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: