Download or read book Modeling Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Default Prepayment and Loss written by Olgay Cangur and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mortgage Valuation Models written by Andrew Davidson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are among the most complex of all financial instruments. Analysis of MBS requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior with the mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices. Over the past 25 years, Andrew Davidson and Alexander Levin have been at the leading edge of MBS valuation and risk analysis. Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty contains a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods that the authors employ in real-world analyses of mortgage-backed securities. Issues such as complexity, borrower options, uncertainty, and model risk play a central role in the authors' approach to the valuation of MBS. The coverage spans the range of mortgage products from loans and TBA (to-be-announced) pass-through securities to subordinate tranches of subprime-mortgage securitizations. With reference to the classical CAPM and APT, the book advocates extending the concept of risk-neutrality to modeling home prices and borrower options, well beyond interest rates. It describes valuation methods for both agency and non-agency MBS including pricing new loans; approaches to prudent risk measurement, ranking, and decomposition; and methods for modeling prepayments and defaults of borrowers. The authors also reveal quantitative causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis and provide insight into the future of the U.S. housing finance system and mortgage modeling as this field continues to evolve. This book will serve as a foundation for the future development of models for mortgage-backed securities.
Download or read book A New Hedonic Method for Measuring Mortgage Default Risk and Prepayment Rate written by Kai Lin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring and monitoring the true level of mortgage delinquencies across an economy is essential for asset pricing and financial system stability. Yet public measures of mortgage default risk almost always use simple averages across pools of individual assets, including balance-sheet loans or indices tracking default risk across portfolios of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). These approaches are, like median house price indices, afflicted by compositional biases that can lead to spurious inferences regarding the direction of default rates. Sources of bias include artificial changes in default rates attributable to: increases in the volume of new loans being written or (securitised RMBS added to indices); changes in the proportion of transactions with higher loan-to-value ratios (LVRs); the introduction of less seasoned RMBS transactions with a lower weighted-average loan age; and/or shifts in borrower characteristics that have higher probabilities of default (e.g. tilts towards investment borrowers). To address this problem, we have developed the first known hedonic regression-based indices of empirical mortgage default risk that explicitly control for compositional biases through the models' characteristic-based independent variables. Whereas simple average measures of default rates across securitised loan portfolios have declined in recent years, which suggests that the risk of loss has been falling, our hedonic mortgage default index implies exactly the opposite: that is, compositionally-adjusted default rates have, in fact, been increasing sharply in recent times. In addition to delinquency rates, we apply similar hedonic regression techniques to create a compositionally-adjusted index for RMBS prepayment rates, which shows a sharp decline in prepayments from 2017 to late 2018.
Download or read book Subprime Mortgage Credit Derivatives written by Laurie S. Goodman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-02 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mortgage credit derivatives are a risky business, especially of late. Written by an expert author team of UBS practitioners-Laurie Goodman, Shumin Li, Douglas Lucas, and Thomas Zimmerman-along with Frank Fabozzi of Yale University, Subprime Mortgage Credit Derivatives covers state-of-the-art instruments and strategies for managing a portfolio of mortgage credits in today's volatile climate. Divided into four parts, this book addresses a variety of important topics, including mortgage credit (non-agency, first and second lien), mortgage securitizations (alternate structures and subprime triggers), credit default swaps on mortgage securities (ABX, cash synthetic relationships, CDO credit default swaps), and much more. In addition, the authors outline the origins of the subprime crisis, showing how during the 2004-2006 period, as housing became less affordable, origination standards were stretched-and when home price appreciation then turned to home price depreciation, defaults and delinquencies rose across the board. The recent growth in subprime lending, along with a number of other industry factors, has made the demand for timely knowledge and solutions greater than ever before, and this guide contains the information financial professionals need to succeed in this challenging field.
Download or read book Financial Literacy and Subprime Mortgage Delinquency written by Kristopher Gerardi and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investigates whether a particular aspect of borrowers' financial literacy ¿ their numerical ability ¿ may have played a role in the subprime mortgage collapse. The authors measure several aspects of financial literacy and cognitive ability in a survey of subprime mortgage borrowers who took out mortgages in 2006 or 2007 and match these measures to objective data on mortgage characteristics and repayment performance. The result: a large and statistically significant negative correlation between numerical ability and various measures of delinquency and default. Foreclosure starts are approximately 2/3 lower in the group with the highest measured level of numerical ability compared with the group with the lowest measured level. Illus.
Download or read book Rise in Mortgage Defaults written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mortgage Default and Mortgage Valuation written by John Krainer and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors develop an equilibrium valuation model that incorporates optimal default to show how mortgage yields and lender recovery rates on defaulted mortgages depend on initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. The analysis treats both the frictionless case and the case in which borrowers and lenders incur deadweight costs upon default. The model is calibrated using data on California mortgages. Given reasonable parameter values, the model does a surprisingly good job fitting the risk premium in the data for high LTV mortgages. Thus, from an ex ante perspective, the authors do not find strong evidence of systematic underpricing of default risk in the run-up to the housing market crisis. Charts and tables.
Download or read book The Past Present and Future of Subprime Mortgages written by Shane M. Sherlund and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Losing Ground Foreclosures in the Subprime Market Their Cost to Homeowners written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity Using Loan Level Data written by Ralph Guy DeFranco and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit written by Adam B. Ashcraft and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-03 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions that arise. Discusses the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down. Continues with a complete picture of the subprime borrower and the subprime loan, discussing both predatory borrowing and predatory lending. Presents the key structural features of a typical subprime securitization, documents how rating agencies assign credit ratings to mortgage-backed securities, and outlines how these agencies monitor the performance of mortgage pools over time. The authors draw upon the example of a mortgage pool securitized by New Century Financial during 2006. Illustrations.
Download or read book Effects of Regulation on Prepayment and Default of Subprime Mortgages written by Jevgenijs Steinbuks and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the effects of restrictions on prepayment penalties on prepayment and default termination of subprime mortgages from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. The theoretical results suggest that, if lenders substitute points for prepayment penalties, prepayment rates will rise and defaults fall. Consistent with predictions of theoretical model empirical results indicate that predatory lending laws lowered default rates and raised prepayment rates in the subprime market. Estimates from competing risks models of mortgage termination on 30-year fixed-rate subprime mortgage data suggest that, controlling for other factors, the estimated probabilities of prepayment are higher in the states that have introduced predatory lending laws and restricted prepayment penalties. Though no definite conclusions could be drawn regarding the effect of state laws on subprime defaults, there is some evidence that early defaults have decreased as the scope of regulation expanded.
Download or read book Mortgage Transition Model Based on Loan Performance Data written by Shuyao Yang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The unexpected increase in loan default on the mortgage market is widely considered to be one of the main cause behind the economic crisis. To provide some insight on loan delinquency and default, I analyze the mortgage performance data from Fannie Mae website and investigate how economic factors and individual loan and borrower information affect the events of default and prepaid. Various delinquency status including default and prepaid are treated as discrete states of a Markov chain. One-step transition probabilities are estimated via multinomial logistic models. We find that in general current loan-to-value ratio, credit score, unemployment rate, and interest rate significantly affect the transition probabilities to different delinquency states, which lead to further default or prepaid events.
Download or read book A New Prepayment Model with Default written by Nick J. Sharp and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new prepayment model is developed, which improves the modeling of the borrowers decision process by incorporating an occupation-time derivative in the valuation framework of a fixed-rate mortgage. This option-theoretic mortgage valuation model is based on stochastic house-price and interest-rate models, and requires a particularly subtle technique to incorporate a new type of occupation-time derivative, where the barrier (which activates the derivative) is in the value process and not the underlying process (as it is in standard occupation-time derivatives). This new model simulates a delay in prepayment by the borrower (beyond the time simple ruthless prepayment dictates), thus increasing the value of the mortgage to the lender, compared to the value gained using more basic models. This allows for a more advanced borrowers decision process, where a rational exercise structure is retained in a modified form. Empirical evidence supports this theory, which should be beneficial for accurate mortgage-backed security pricing. The results in this paper explore thoroughly the effect on the mortgage value of a delay in prepayment by the borrower on the embedded options held and on the insurance component.
Download or read book A Dynamic Look at Subprime Loan Performance written by Michelle A. Danis and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reducing Foreclosures written by Christopher Foote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes a skeptical look at a leading argument about what is causing the foreclosure crisis and what should be done to stop it. The authors focus on two key decisions: the borrower's choice to default on a mortgage and the lender's subsequent choice whether to renegotiate or modify the loan. Unaffordable loans, defined as those with high mortgage payments relative to income at origination, are unlikely to be the main reason that borrowers decide to default. The efficiency of foreclosure for investors is a more plausible explanation for the low number of modifications to date. Policies designed to reduce foreclosures should focus on ameliorating the effects of job loss rather than modifying loans to make them more affordable on a long-term basis. Illustrations.
Download or read book The Contingent Claims and Competing Risks for Mortgage Termination by Prepayment and Default written by Yongheng Deng and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
