Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID 19 Pandemic written by Olga Bespalova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Download or read book Forecasting Tourist Arrivals with Google Trends and Mixed Frequency Data written by Tomáš Havránek and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we examine the usefulness of Google Trends data in predicting monthly tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Prague during the period between January 2010 and December 2016. We offer two contributions. First, we analyze whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable (monthly tourist arrivals) using Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS). Our results stress the potential of Google Trends to offer more accurate prediction in the context of tourism: we find that Google Trends information, both two months and one week ahead of arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model that employs weekly Google Trends data outperforms models using monthly Google Trends data and models without Google Trends data.
Download or read book The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows written by Patrik Gustavsson and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand written by Doris Chenguang Wu and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.
Download or read book Tourism in the Post Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Download or read book Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2000 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Download or read book Trinity Strikes Back Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Download or read book The Tourism Area Life Cycle Conceptual and theoretical issues written by Richard Butler and published by Channel View Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is divided into five sections: the conceptual origins of the TALC, spatial relationships and the TALC, alternative conceptual approaches, renewing or retiring with the TALC, and predicting with the TALC. It concludes with a review of the future potential of the model in the area of the destination development process.
Download or read book OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-04 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2020 edition analyses tourism performance and policy trends across 51 OECD countries and partner economies. It highlights the need for coherent and comprehensive approaches to tourism policy making, and the significance of the tourism economy, with data covering domestic, inbound and outbound tourism, enterprises and employment, and internal tourism consumption.
Download or read book The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-12-09 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism demand is the foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. This book introduces students, researchers and practitioners to the modern developments in advanced econometric methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis and illustrates these developments with actual tourism applications.
Download or read book Seasonality in Tourism written by Tom Baum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2001-12-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Download or read book Barbados written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-18 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Barbados and its Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Completion of the Financing Assurances Review, and Modification of Performance Criteria. The Article IV discussions focused on fiscal adjustment, medium-term growth and resilience to climate change and natural disasters. The Barbadian authorities continue to make good progress in implementing the comprehensive Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuilding reserves, and increasing growth. All program targets for end-June and end-September 2019 have been met. All three structural benchmarks for the second review have also been met. The authorities have continued the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) by completing a review of tariffs and fees charged by SOEs, tightening reporting requirements, and reducing costs. The authorities reached agreement with the External Creditor Committee on a restructuring of external debt to private creditors in October 2019 and launched a debt exchange offer in early November. The IMF Staff proposes modification of the performance criteria relating to the primary balance, net international reserves and net domestic assets.
Download or read book Azerbaijan Moving Toward More Diversified Resilient and Inclusive Development written by Aimee Hampel-Milagrosa and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-08-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Azerbaijan has set the course for the economy to reduce its dependence on oil by promoting new drivers of growth. By 2025, under the government’s Strategic Roads Maps, a more diversified economy should take shape led by three sectors: agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. Bold reforms need to strengthen areas of the economy that could otherwise impede this transition, and policy makers must resolutely stay on the reform path. The core message of this publication is diversification toward non-oil sources of growth alongside efforts to reduce macroeconomic risks and the high cost of finance, make the education system responsive to the needs of the labor market, close infrastructure gaps, and help economically significant state-owned enterprises become more efficient.
Download or read book Review of Maritime Transport 2020 written by United Nations and published by UN. This book was released on 2021-01-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This series contains the decisions of the Court in both the English and French texts.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
