Download or read book Misinterpretations of Precipitation Probability Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Precipitation Probabilities in Weather Forecasts written by Escal S. Bennett and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Forecasting written by Lawrence Ambrose Hughes and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan Murphy and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.
Download or read book On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts written by Charles F. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Forecasts of 30 day Precipitation written by John W. Philpot and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Terry Connolly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Download or read book Minding the Weather written by Robert R. Hoffman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-08-15 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science. This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
Download or read book Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1995-10-20 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Psychology of Learning and Motivation publishes empirical and theoretical contributions in cognitive and experimental psychology, ranging from classical and instrumental conditioning to complex learning and problem solving. This guest-edited special issue is devoted to research and discussion on decision making from a cognitive perspective. Topics include judgment and decision making with respect to memory processes and techniques, domain-specificity, and confirmation bias.Key Features* Synthesis of decision and cognitive research* New theoretical treatments of critical phenomena* New findings and systematic reviews of past work* Coverage of preference, inference, prediction, and hypothesis-testing* Written by the new leading generation of researchers
Download or read book Precipitation Probability Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Composite Study Examining Five Heavy Snowfall Patterns for South central Montana written by Jonathan D. Van Ausdall and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty written by R.W. Scholz and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1983-11-01 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections.The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated.In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education.
Download or read book Precipitation Probability Forecasts written by U.S. Dept. of Commerce. Environmental Science Services Administration and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Forecasts of 30 day Precipitation written by John Wesley Philpot and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
