Download or read book Methodological Approaches to Deal with Uncertainty in Decision Making Processes written by Alejandro Valdéz López and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this investigation is to discuss qualitatively the different methodological approaches developed to deal with uncertainty in decision making processes. For its preparation were used mainly the analysis of documents, the historicallogical method and the analytical-synthetic method which allowed an assessment of the state of the art in the topic. It was possible to identify that the phenomenon of uncertainty has two natures: one aleatory and other epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty arises from stochastic processes, while epistemic uncertainty is caused by imprecision, ignorance, credibility or incompleteness in the information necessary to make the decision. Aleatory uncertainty is effectively modeled by probability theory, which constitutes the starting point for maximizing expected utility in decision processes. Epistemic uncertainty is modeled, depending on the characteristic of the information, mainly through fuzzy sets theory, rough sets or gray systems. Each of these approaches has its advantages and disadvantages, so in order to take advantage of their strengths, hybrid models have been created. Nowadays, given the need to make more robust decisions, all these theories are being refined by the scientific community because, although uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated they have shown that it can be dealt with effectively.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Download or read book The Management of Uncertainty Approaches Methods and Applications written by Luc Wilkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-17 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Download or read book Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Steven W Popper and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.; Offers a comprehensive examination of the approaches and tools for designing plans under deep uncertainty and their application Identifies barriers and enablers for the use of the various approaches and tools in practice Includes realistic examples and practical guidelines to help readers better understand the concepts This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Download or read book Human Judgment and Decision Making written by Kenneth R. Hammond and published by Praeger Publishers. This book was released on 1980 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty in Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Download or read book Modern Optimization Methods for Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Alexei A. Gaivoronski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-10-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book comprises original articles on topical issues of risk theory, rational decision making, statistical decisions, and control of stochastic systems. The articles are the outcome of a series international projects involving the leading scholars in the field of modern stochastic optimization and decision making. The structure of stochastic optimization solvers is described. The solvers in general implement stochastic quasi-gradient methods for optimization and identification of complex nonlinear models. These models constitute an important methodology for finding optimal decisions under risk and uncertainty. While a large part of current approaches towards optimization under uncertainty stems from linear programming (LP) and often results in large LPs of special structure, stochastic quasi-gradient methods confront nonlinearities directly without need of linearization. This makes them an appropriate tool for solving complex nonlinear problems, concurrent optimization and simulation models, and equilibrium situations of different types, for instance, Nash or Stackelberg equilibrium situations. The solver finds the equilibrium solution when the optimization model describes the system with several actors. The solver is parallelizable, performing several simulation threads in parallel. It is capable of solving stochastic optimization problems, finding stochastic Nash equilibria, and of composite stochastic bilevel problems where each level may require the solution of stochastic optimization problem or finding Nash equilibrium. Several complex examples with applications to water resources management, energy markets, pricing of services on social networks are provided. In the case of power system, regulator makes decision on the final expansion plan, considering the strategic behavior of regulated companies and coordinating the interests of different economic entities. Such a plan can be an equilibrium − a planned decision where a company cannot increase its expected gain unilaterally.
Download or read book A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research written by Michael Schulte-Mecklenbeck and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2011-05-20 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook provides a critical review and user’s guide to conducting and reporting process tracing studies of decision making. Each chapter covers a specific method that is presented and reviewed by authors who are experts in the method’s application to decision research. The book ultimately illustrates and presents a multi-method approach and is essential reading for graduate students and researchers wishing to undertake such studies on decision making.
Download or read book Complications written by Atul Gawande and published by Metropolitan Books. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brilliant and courageous doctor reveals, in gripping accounts of true cases, the power and limits of modern medicine. Sometimes in medicine the only way to know what is truly going on in a patient is to operate, to look inside with one's own eyes. This book is exploratory surgery on medicine itself, laying bare a science not in its idealized form but as it actually is -- complicated, perplexing, and profoundly human. Atul Gawande offers an unflinching view from the scalpel's edge, where science is ambiguous, information is limited, the stakes are high, yet decisions must be made. In dramatic and revealing stories of patients and doctors, he explores how deadly mistakes occur and why good surgeons go bad. He also shows us what happens when medicine comes up against the inexplicable: an architect with incapacitating back pain for which there is no physical cause; a young woman with nausea that won't go away; a television newscaster whose blushing is so severe that she cannot do her job. Gawande offers a richly detailed portrait of the people and the science, even as he tackles the paradoxes and imperfections inherent in caring for human lives. At once tough-minded and humane, Complications is a new kind of medical writing, nuanced and lucid, unafraid to confront the conflicts and uncertainties that lie at the heart of modern medicine, yet always alive to the possibilities of wisdom in this extraordinary endeavor. Complications is a 2002 National Book Award Finalist for Nonfiction.
Download or read book Uncertainty Deconstructed written by Bruce Garvey and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-26 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant
Download or read book Decision Making for the Net Zero Transformation Considerations and New Methodological Approaches written by Mark Workman and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Special edition compiled in partnership with Frontiers sponsored by the Clean Air Task Force. The realisation of Net Zero by 2050 will require the ability for strategy developers, operational planners and decision makers to better manage uncertainty, complexity and emergence. The application of the orthodox set of decision support tools and processes that have been used to explore deep decarbonisation options to 2050 have blinded decision makers to uncertainty, complexity and emergence. Tools have often been used which are inappropriate to the types of decisions being made – a competency which has been glaringly revealed during the C-19 Pandemic. This Frontiers Research Topic will highlight the need for an interdisciplinary, mixed methods approach bringing together insights from modelling, decision science, psychology, anthropology, and sociology to form a compendium of current best practice for decision making for the net zero transformation and new research frontiers. Develop greater awareness amongst policymakers, practitioners and academics as to the importance of: • Understanding the nature of uncertainty when dealing with problems associated with the Net Zero Energy System Transformation; • Increasing importance of deliberative processes to map different value sets beyond least cost; • Acknowledging that decision making under uncertainty requires competency-based training leading to a full appreciation of the tasks at hand. Suggested areas within scope are listed in points 1-12 below. Authors are free to choose specific areas of interest, and to combine these where useful. In general, it will be useful to consider practical application of [ideas], e.g • development of `Use Cases’ and `Decision Making Contexts’ may be useful, e.g. National Govt establishing its Carbon Budget; Institution setting up its investment portfolio. • understanding of how decisions are being made within different jurisdictions, political cultures, and types of organizations (public/private). What is the role of `Decision Context' i.e. organisational decision-making structures, cultures, the role of zeitgeist and dominant narratives, or the relation between academic expertise and policy-makers. 1. Decision making from an end-to-end perspective and the need to take a holistic and interdisciplinary perspective [Editorial Cover Article]. 2. Gap between what policy makers and decision makers around net zero climate policy seek to address and what decision support tools can actually do. Why that gap is increasing (if it is)? 3. Understanding the nature of uncertainty when applying the relevant decision support tool and processes. Not all uncertainty can be addressed within the decision support tool itself. Role of optimism bias; potential role of least worst regret approaches etc 4. What different decision support tools can inform decision makers around net zero climate policy and need for a basket of tools. 5. Why parametric decision support tools and models are pre-eminent - the role of consolidative modelling and exploratory modelling. The inertia of modelling approaches: why it is so hard to break modelling paradigms? 6. What decision science informs us about how decisions are actually made - the importance of process, the role of transparency and deliberation with analysis. 7. Processes that address the biases identified in decision science and impact of identity politics on deliberative decision making. 8. Why decision making under deep uncertainty requires competency-based training, deep subject matter expertise and systemic knowledge. 9. Ministerial and policy making and the decision support requirements: US, EU, UK & China 10. The role of narratives and how uncertainty can be communicated to societal audiences. Storylines and other narrative approaches 11. How to develop participatory approaches allow multiple values, diversity of stakeholders in which climate communication and decision making exists in an iterative exchange with policy. We have started the journey e.g. the role of climate assemblies… what next? 12. Decision making under deep (climate) uncertainty by the financial sector We acknowledge the funding of the manuscripts published in this Research Topic by the Clean Air Task Force. We hereby state publicly that the Clean Air Task Force has had no editorial input in articles included in this Research Topic, thus ensuring that all aspects of this Research Topic are evaluated objectively, unbiased by any specific policy or opinion of the Clean Air Task Force.
Download or read book Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering written by Peter F. Pelz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book reports on innovative methods, technologies and strategies for mastering uncertainty in technical systems. Despite the fact that current research on uncertainty is mainly focusing on uncertainty quantification and analysis, this book gives emphasis to innovative ways to master uncertainty in engineering design, production and product usage alike. It gathers authoritative contributions by more than 30 scientists reporting on years of research in the areas of engineering, applied mathematics and law, thus offering a timely, comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of theories and methods for quantifying data, model and structural uncertainty, and of fundamental strategies for mastering uncertainty. It covers key concepts such as robustness, flexibility and resilience in detail. All the described methods, technologies and strategies have been validated with the help of three technical systems, i.e. the Modular Active Spring-Damper System, the Active Air Spring and the 3D Servo Press, which have been in turn developed and tested during more than ten years of cooperative research. Overall, this book offers a timely, practice-oriented reference guide to graduate students, researchers and professionals dealing with uncertainty in the broad field of mechanical engineering.
Download or read book Methods for Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the XVII SIGEF Congress. It presents fuzzy logic, neural networks and other intelligent techniques applied to economic and business problems. This book is very useful for researchers and graduate students aiming to introduce themselves to the field of quantitative techniques for overcoming uncertain environments. The contributors are experienced scholars of different countries who offer real world applications of these mathematical techniques.
