Download or read book Measuring Financial Contagion by Local Gaussian Correlation written by Bård Støve and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Modeling Using Local Gaussian Approximation written by Dag Tjøstheim and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-10-05 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Modeling using Local Gaussian Approximation extends powerful characteristics of the Gaussian distribution, perhaps, the most well-known and most used distribution in statistics, to a large class of non-Gaussian and nonlinear situations through local approximation. This extension enables the reader to follow new methods in assessing dependence and conditional dependence, in estimating probability and spectral density functions, and in discrimination. Chapters in this release cover Parametric, nonparametric, locally parametric, Dependence, Local Gaussian correlation and dependence, Local Gaussian correlation and the copula, Applications in finance, and more. Additional chapters explores Measuring dependence and testing for independence, Time series dependence and spectral analysis, Multivariate density estimation, Conditional density estimation, The local Gaussian partial correlation, Regression and conditional regression quantiles, and a A local Gaussian Fisher discriminant. Reviews local dependence modeling with applications to time series and finance markets Introduces new techniques for density estimation, conditional density estimation, and tests of conditional independence with applications in economics Evaluates local spectral analysis, discovering hidden frequencies in extremes and hidden phase differences Integrates textual content with three useful R packages
Download or read book Framework for Analyzing Spatial Contagion between Financial Markets written by Brendan Bradley and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present an alternative definition of contagion between financial markets, which is based on a measure of local correlation. We say that there is contagion from market X to market Y if there is more dependence between X and Y when X is doing badly than when X exhibits typical performance, that is, if there is more dependence at the loss tail distribution of X than at its center. The dependence is measured by the local correlation between X and Y. This yields a test for contagion, which does not require the specification of crisis and normal periods. As such, it avoids difficulties associated with testing for correlation breakdown, such as hand picking subsets of the data, and it provides a better understanding of the degree of dependence between financial markets.
Download or read book Measuring Financial Contagion written by Juan Carlos Rodriguez and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper models dependence with switching - parameter copulas to study financial contagion. Using daily returns from five East Asian stock indices during the Asian crisis, and from four Latin American stock indices during the Mexican crisis, it finds evidence of changing dependence during periods of turmoil. Increased tail dependence and asymmetry characterize the Asian countries, while symmetry and tail independence describe the Latin American case. Structural breaks in tail dependence are a dimension of the contagion phenomenon. Therefore, the rejection of the correlation breakdown hypothesis should not be considered, without further investigation, as evidence of a stable dependence structure.
Download or read book Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a factor model of returns as theoretical framework, we nest leading contributions in the literature as special cases of our test. We show that, while the literature on correlation analysis of contagion is successful in controlling for a potential bias induced by changes in the variance of global shocks, current tests are conditional on a specific yet arbitrary assumption about the variance of country specific shocks. Our results suggest that, for a number of pairs of country stock markets, the hypothesis of 'no contagion' can be rejected only if the variance of country specific shocks is set to levels that are not consistent with the evidence.
Download or read book A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion written by Kee-Hong Bae and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the co-incidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions that cannot be explained by linear propagation models of shocks. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion, when measured by the co-incidence within and across regions of extreme return shocks, is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed.
Download or read book A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion written by Kee-Hong Bae and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the co-incidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions that cannot be explained by linear propagation models of shocks. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion, when measured by the co-incidence within and across regions of extreme return shocks, is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed
Download or read book Fatal Attraction written by Mr.Giorgio Fazio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice it measures contagion using the relationship of these correlations with distance. Also in contrast to previous work, our test is good at identifying periods of "positive contagion," in which capital flows to emerging markets in a herd-like manner, largely unrelated to fundamentals. Identifying such periods of "fatal attraction" is important as they provide the essential ingredients for subsequent crises and rapid outflows of capital.
Download or read book New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) presents the abstract of the September 2000 paper "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," written by Kee-Hong Bae, G. Andrew Karolyi, and Rene M. Stulz. The paper offers a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. The full text of the paper can be purchased.
Download or read book A Test for Financial Contagion written by Kwang-Il Choe and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics written by Niels Haldrup and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.
Download or read book No Contagion Only Interdependence written by Kristin Forbes and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines stock market co-movements. It begins with a discussion of several conceptual issues involved in measuring these movements and how to test for contagion. Standard tests examine if cross-market correlation in stock market returns increase during a period of crisis. The measure of cross-market correlations central to this standard analysis, however, is biased. The unadjusted correlation coefficient is conditional on market movements over the time period under consideration, so that during a period of turmoil when stock market volatility increases, standard estimates of cross-market correlations will be biased upward. It is straightforward to adjust the correlation coefficient to correct for this bias. The remainder of the paper applies these concepts to test for stock market contagion during the 1997 East Asian crises, the 1994 Mexican peso collapse, and the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In each of these cases, tests based on the unadjusted correlation coefficients find evidence of contagion in several countries, while tests based on the adjusted coefficients find virtually no contagion. This suggests that high market co-movements during these periods were a continuation of strong cross-market linkages. In other words, during these three crises there was no contagion, only interdependence.
Download or read book Measuring Factors Affecting Financial Contagion written by Najakorn Khajonchotpanya and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis aims to develop a framework and a model of the fundamental-based contagion in the international stock market. Rather than studying the contagion effect directly across countries' stock markets as in past studies, this thesis assumes the distribution of stock market return is determined by a hidden process called the domestic fundamental, which is defned as the health of the economy, and study the contagion through the fundamentals. Under the framework proposed by this thesis, the mechanism of the fundamental-based contagion in the international stock market consists of two effects: the transmission of shocks and the shock amplification effects. The proposed model is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Then, results from the empirical study on the international stock market contagion between Japan - Thailand, Hong Kong- Thailand and the Us - Thailand reveals that financial linkage is the only transmision channel of shock to Thailand and that there is a significant evidence of the effect of shock amplication by the Thai fundamental. Thus, as the fnancial linkage gets larger, more external shocks would transmit to Thailand, and if the Thai fundamental is weak, it would suffer from the shocks more greatly. Lastly, this thesis finds that Thailand was affected by the fundamental of the US the most, and the effect of changes in the US fundamental on the Thai fundamental and stock market returns became more pronounced during the 2008 global fnancial crisis.
Download or read book How to Estimate Spatial Contagion between Financial Markets written by Brendan Bradley and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A definition of contagion between financial markets based on local correlation was introduced in Bradley and Taqqu (2004) and a test for contagion was proposed. For the test to be implemented, local correlation must be estimated. This paper describes an estimation procedure based on nonparametric local polynomial regression. The procedure is illustrated on the US and French equity market data.
Download or read book Correlation Coefficients Heteroskedasticity and Contagion of Financial Crises written by Gawon Yoon and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A significant increase in the correlation coefficients of returns across countries during periods of high turbulence is regarded as evidence of the contagion of financial crises. However, heteroskedasticity is known to cause correlation coefficients to be biased upward. This note shows that correlation coefficients can be biased downward under heteroskedasticity when returns are following stochastic unit root processes. Further, returns are known to be nonlinear, so correlation coefficients might not be very useful in measuring relations between them. These results indicate that the time-series behavior of returns needs to be more thoroughly studied prior to measuring the contagion of financial crises with correlation coefficients.
Download or read book A Regime Switching Skew normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion written by Joshua C. C. Chan and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion What One Should Konw before Running a Test written by G. Corsetti and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
