Download or read book Markov Regime switching and Unit Root Tests written by Charles R. Nelson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the power and size performance of unit root tests when the true data generating process undergoes Markov regime-switching. All tests, including those robust to a single break in trend growth rate, have very low power against a process with a Markov-switching trend growth rate as in Lam (1990). However, for the case of business cycle non-linearities, unit root tests are very powerful against models used as alternatives to Lam (1990) that specify regime-switching in the transitory component of output. Under the null hypothesis, the received literature documents size distortions in Dickey-Fuller type tests caused by a single break in trend growth rate or variance. We find these results do not generalize to most parameterizations of Markov-switching in trend or variance. However, Markov-switching in variance can lead to over-rejection in tests robust to a single break in the level of trend.
Download or read book Unit Roots Cointegration and Structural Change written by G. S. Maddala and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.
Download or read book Avoiding the Pitfalls written by Simon van Norden and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Work on testing for bubbles has caused much debate, much of which has focussed on methodology. Monte Carlo simulations reported in Evans (1991) showed that standard tests for unit roots and cointegration frequently reject the presence of bubbles even when such bubbles are present by construction. Evans referred to this problem as the pitfall of testing for bubbles. Since Evans' note, new tests for rational speculative bubbles that rely on regime-switching have been proposed. Van Norden and Schaller (1993) and van Norden (1996) use a switching regression to look for a time-varying relationship between returns and deviations from an approximate fundamental price. Hall and Sola (1993) and Funke, Hall and Sola (1994) test whether asset prices seem to switch between explosive growth and stationary behaviour. Our paper reports on Monte Carlo experiments using Evans' data-generating process to gauge the performance of these two kinds of regime-switching tests. The experiments rely heavily on certain new, fast and robust programs developed at the Bank of Canada for the estimation of switching regression models that make Monte Carlo studies of such estimators practical. We find that for some (but not all) parameter values, regime-switching tests have a significant amount of power to detect periodically collapsing bubbles. We also compare and contrast the performance of the two different regime-switching tests. FRENCH VERSION La mise au point de tests de detection des bulles speculatives a occasionne bien des debats, principalement sur des points de methodologie. Evans (1991) a demontre, au moyen de simulations de Monte-Carlo, que la presence de bulles est frequemment rejetee par les tests standard de racine unitaire et de cointegration meme quand des bulles ont ete incorporees a la construction des donnees. Ce probleme constitue, a ses yeux, la pierre d'achoppement de ce type de tests de detection des bulles. Depuis la parution de l'article d'Evans, on a propose de nouveaux tests de detection des bulles speculatives rationnelles qui s'appuient sur un changement de regime. van Norden et Schaller (1993) et van Norden (1996) ont eu recours a une regression avec changement de regime afin d'etablir s'il existe une relation, variable dans le temps, entre les rendements et les ecarts observes par rapport a un prix fondamental approximatif. De leur cote, Hall et Sola (1993) et Funke, Hall et Sola (1994) ont cherche a determiner si le prix des actifs oscille entre une croissance explosive et un etat stationnaire. Dans la presente etude, les auteurs evaluent la puissance de ces deux types de tests au moyen de simulations de Monte-Carlo; ils emploient pour cela le processus generateur de donnees qu'utilise Evans. Leurs simulations font appel aux nouveaux programmes rapides et eprouves mis au point a la Banque du Canada pour l'estimation des modeles de regression avec changement de regime, lesquels rendent possible l'etude de tels estimateurs au moyen de simulations. Les auteurs constatent que pour certaines valeurs parametriques (mais pas pour toutes), les tests de regression avec changement de regime sont suffisamment puissants pour deceler les bulles qui s'effondrent periodiquement. Enfin, ils comparent la performance des deux tests afin d'en faire ressortir les similarites et les ifferences.
Download or read book Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models written by Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.
Download or read book State Space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Download or read book Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management New Series Vol 6 written by Cheng F. Lee and published by Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press. This book was released on 2014-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the area of investment analysis and portfolio management. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in security analysis, portfolio management, options, futures, and other related issues. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance, economics, and accounting and applied research in the financial community.
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.
Download or read book Southern Economic Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Recent Developments in Cointegration written by Katarina Juselius and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-07-05 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Recent Developments in Cointegration" that was published in Econometrics
Download or read book The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance written by Peijie Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-05 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is designed to integrate the theory of foreign exchange rate determi- tion and the practice of global finance in a single volume, which demonstrates how theory guides practice, and practice motivates theory, in this important area of scholarly work and commercial operation in an era when the global market has become increasingly integrated. The book presents all major subjects in international monetary theory, foreign exchange markets, international financial management and investment analysis. The book is relevant to real world problems in the sense that it provides guidance on how to solve policy issues as well as practical management tasks. This in turn helps the reader to gain an understanding of the theory and refines the framework. This new edition of the book incorporates two new chapters, together with - dating most chapters in the first edition, integrating new materials, data, and/or the recent developments in the areas. A new chapter on the portfolio balance approach to exchange rate determination is included, in addition to the major models - cluded in the first edition: the Mundell-Fleming model, the flexible price monetary model, the sticky price monetary model featured by the Dornbusch model and the real interest rate differential model. This makes the book inclusive in exchange rate theories. A second new chapter included is on issues in balance of payments or international transactions and their interactions with exchange rates, changes in exchange rates and exchange rate policies.
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-12-01 with total page 1376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. - Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research - Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade
Download or read book Risk Management in Commodity Markets written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-22 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities represent today the fastest growing markets worldwide. Historically misunderstood, generally under- studied and under- valued, certainly under- represented in the literature, commodities are suddenly receiving the attention they deserve. Bringing together some of the best authors in the field, this book focuses on the risk management issues associated with both soft and hard commodities: energy, weather, agriculturals, metals and shipping. Taking the reader through every part of the commodities markets, the authors discuss the intricacies of modelling spot and forward prices, as well as the design of new Futures markets. The book also looks at the use of options and other derivative contract forms for hedging purposes, as well as supply management in commodity markets. It looks at the implications for climate policy and climate research and analyzes the various freight derivatives markets and products used to manage shipping and freight risk in a global commodity world. It is required reading for energy and mining companies, utilities’ practitioners, commodity and cash derivatives traders in investment banks, CTA’s and hedge funds
Download or read book Handbook of High Frequency Trading written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-02-05 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive examination of high frequency trading looks beyond mathematical models, which are the subject of most HFT books, to the mechanics of the marketplace. In 25 chapters, researchers probe the intricate nature of high frequency market dynamics, market structure, back-office processes, and regulation. They look deeply into computing infrastructure, describing data sources, formats, and required processing rates as well as software architecture and current technologies. They also create contexts, explaining the historical rise of automated trading systems, corresponding technological advances in hardware and software, and the evolution of the trading landscape. Developed for students and professionals who want more than discussions on the econometrics of the modelling process, The Handbook of High Frequency Trading explains the entirety of this controversial trading strategy. - Answers all questions about high frequency trading without being limited to mathematical modelling - Illuminates market dynamics, processes, and regulations - Explains how high frequency trading evolved and predicts its future developments
Download or read book Advances in Longitudinal Data Methods in Applied Economic Research written by Nicholas Tsounis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-03-31 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents new methods and applications in longitudinal data estimation methodology in applied economic. Featuring selected papers from the 2020 the International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE 2020) held virtually due to the corona virus pandemic, this book examines interdisciplinary topics such as financial economics, international economics, agricultural economics, marketing and management. Country specific case studies are also featured.
Download or read book Economic Integration Currency Union and Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in East Africa written by Almas Heshmati and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume focuses on economic integration, currency union, and sustainable and inclusive growth in East Africa. It consists of twelve interrelated studies that provide a comprehensive picture of the state and determinants of economic development and cooperation among countries in East Africa, such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania. The contributions are grouped into five parts: economic integration and its effects on trade; common currency and exchange rate; research, innovation, and knowledge, and shadow economics and corruption; inclusive and sustainable growth; and the conflict-growth nexus and reconstruction. This book will appeal to scholars and decision makers looking for the necessary tools and determinants of economic development and cooperation in East Africa.
Download or read book International Finance Discussion Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
