Download or read book Making Robust Decisions written by David G. Ullman and published by Trafford on Demand Pub. This book was released on 2006 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do you approach difficult decisions? Decision making is an integral part of business and technology, as well as almost every other facet of life. Now there is a uniquely practical book that can help you tackle your next decision with confidence. In Making Robust Decisions: Decision Management for Business, Service, and Technical Teams, you will learn: why decision making can be so difficult; how to address the challenges that uncertain, conflicting, incomplete, or evolving information present; and how to achieve robust decisions despite the varied personalities and perspectives on your team. Combining more than ten years of study of decision support, cognitive psychology, product development, and business management with modern Artificial Intelligence concepts, Making Robust Decisions gives you the tools you need to produce optimal decisions—those that make good use of available information, achieve buy-in from all parties, and yield the best possible results. Packed with practical examples and case studies, Making Robust Decisions strikes a middle ground between self-help books that, while interesting in theory, may not help with real-world problems and highly technical analysis texts. It provides some methods you can implement right away and others that you and your organization can grow into. It is readable, useful, and readily applicable to a wide variety of decision-making problems. The methods introduced in Making Robust Decisions can help with such varied issues as selecting a concept, managing a portfolio, choosing a vendor, evaluating a proposal, selecting from architecture options, choosing a design, and determining whether to make or buy an item. They support military selection of the best course of action (COA), Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), and homeland security strategies. Making Robust Decisions includes chapters on making estimates, working with decision teams, framing problems, the influence of belief, and using AccordÔ decision-making software to support robust decisions. It includes decision-making templates and demonstrates how the methods described support Design for Six Sigma practitioners and provide help in un-sticking the OODA Loop. If you’re in the business of making difficult decisions while managing uncertainty, risk, and team conflict, then discover the new, effective techniques presented in Making Robust Decisions.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Robust Discrete Optimization and Its Applications written by Panos Kouvelis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with decision making in environments of significant data un certainty, with particular emphasis on operations and production management applications. For such environments, we suggest the use of the robustness ap proach to decision making, which assumes inadequate knowledge of the decision maker about the random state of nature and develops a decision that hedges against the worst contingency that may arise. The main motivating factors for a decision maker to use the robustness approach are: • It does not ignore uncertainty and takes a proactive step in response to the fact that forecasted values of uncertain parameters will not occur in most environments; • It applies to decisions of unique, non-repetitive nature, which are common in many fast and dynamically changing environments; • It accounts for the risk averse nature of decision makers; and • It recognizes that even though decision environments are fraught with data uncertainties, decisions are evaluated ex post with the realized data. For all of the above reasons, robust decisions are dear to the heart of opera tional decision makers. This book takes a giant first step in presenting decision support tools and solution methods for generating robust decisions in a variety of interesting application environments. Robust Discrete Optimization is a comprehensive mathematical programming framework for robust decision making.
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Download or read book Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Download or read book Robust Optimization written by Aharon Ben-Tal and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-10 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robust optimization is still a relatively new approach to optimization problems affected by uncertainty, but it has already proved so useful in real applications that it is difficult to tackle such problems today without considering this powerful methodology. Written by the principal developers of robust optimization, and describing the main achievements of a decade of research, this is the first book to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date account of the subject. Robust optimization is designed to meet some major challenges associated with uncertainty-affected optimization problems: to operate under lack of full information on the nature of uncertainty; to model the problem in a form that can be solved efficiently; and to provide guarantees about the performance of the solution. The book starts with a relatively simple treatment of uncertain linear programming, proceeding with a deep analysis of the interconnections between the construction of appropriate uncertainty sets and the classical chance constraints (probabilistic) approach. It then develops the robust optimization theory for uncertain conic quadratic and semidefinite optimization problems and dynamic (multistage) problems. The theory is supported by numerous examples and computational illustrations. An essential book for anyone working on optimization and decision making under uncertainty, Robust Optimization also makes an ideal graduate textbook on the subject.
Download or read book Supply Chain Disruption Management written by Tadeusz Sawik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2021-05-30 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with stochastic combinatorial optimization problems in supply chain disruption management, with a particular focus on management of disrupted flows in customer-driven supply chains. The problems are modeled using a scenario based stochastic mixed integer programming to address riskneutral, risk-averse and mean-risk decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks. The book focuses on integrated disruption mitigation and recovery decision-making and innovative, computationally efficient multi-portfolio approach to supply chain disruption management, e.g., selection of primary and recovery supply portfolios, demand portfolios, capacity portfolios, etc. Numerous computational examples throughout the book, modeled in part on realworld supply chain disruption management problems, illustrate the material presented and provide managerial insights. Many propositions formulated in the book lead to a deep understanding of the properties of developed stochastic mixed integer programs and optimal solutions. In the computational examples, the proposed mathematical programming models are solved using an advanced algebraic modeling language such as AMPL and CPLEX, GUROBI and XPRESS solvers. The knowledge and tools provided in the book allow the reader to model and solve supply chain disruption management problems using commercially available software for mixed integer programming. Using the end-of chapter problems and exercises, the monograph can also be used as a textbook for an advanced course in supply chain risk management. After an introductory chapter, the book is then divided into six main parts. Part I addresses selection of a supply portfolio; Part II considers integrated selection of supply portfolio and scheduling; Part III looks at integrated, equitably efficient selection of supply portfolio and scheduling; Part IV examines integrated selection of primary and recovery supply and demand portfolios and production and inventory scheduling, Part V deals with selection of resilient supply portfolio in multitier supply chain networks; and Part VI addresses selection of cybersecurity safequards portfolio for disruption management of information flows in supply chains.
Download or read book Making Good Decisions Without Predictions written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.,
Download or read book How to Decide written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Download or read book Sources of Power written by Gary A. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of naturalistic decision making, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced.
Download or read book Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing written by Rand R. Wilcox and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2005-01-05 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This revised book provides a thorough explanation of the foundation of robust methods, incorporating the latest updates on R and S-Plus, robust ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and regression. It guides advanced students and other professionals through the basic strategies used for developing practical solutions to problems, and provides a brief background on the foundations of modern methods, placing the new methods in historical context. Author Rand Wilcox includes chapter exercises and many real-world examples that illustrate how various methods perform in different situations. Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing, Second Edition, focuses on the practical applications of modern, robust methods which can greatly enhance our chances of detecting true differences among groups and true associations among variables. * Covers latest developments in robust regression * Covers latest improvements in ANOVA * Includes newest rank-based methods * Describes and illustrated easy to use software
Download or read book Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making written by Derek J. Koehler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Download or read book Robust Optimization in Electric Energy Systems written by Xu Andy Sun and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-08 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers robust optimization theory and applications in the electricity sector. The advantage of robust optimization with respect to other methodologies for decision making under uncertainty are first discussed. Then, the robust optimization theory is covered in a friendly and tutorial manner. Finally, a number of insightful short- and long-term applications pertaining to the electricity sector are considered. Specifically, the book includes: robust set characterization, robust optimization, adaptive robust optimization, hybrid robust-stochastic optimization, applications to short- and medium-term operations problems in the electricity sector, and applications to long-term investment problems in the electricity sector. Each chapter contains end-of-chapter problems, making it suitable for use as a text. The purpose of the book is to provide a self-contained overview of robust optimization techniques for decision making under uncertainty in the electricity sector. The targeted audience includes industrial and power engineering students and practitioners in energy fields. The young field of robust optimization is reaching maturity in many respects. It is also useful for practitioners, as it provides a number of electricity industry applications described up to working algorithms (in JuliaOpt).
Download or read book Robust Decision Making with the Same decision Probability written by Suming Jeremiah Chen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When making decisions under uncertainty, the optimal choices are often difficult to discern, especially if not enough information has been gathered. Two key questions in this regard relate to whether one should stop the information gathering process and commit to a decision (stopping criterion), and if not, what information to gather next (selection criterion). The proposed thesis is concerned with addressing this problem in light of a new advance, known as the Same--Decision Probability (SDP), which is the probability that we would make the same decision had we known what we currently do not know. In this thesis, we show how the SDP can be used to be an effective stopping criterion, and compare it to traditional criteria to demonstrate how it provides a fresh perspective in decision making under uncertainty. Additionally, we develop the first exact algorithm to compute the SDP so that it may be used as a stopping criterion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms on real and synthetic networks, and show that our proposed stopping criterion can lead to an early stopping of information gathering. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the SDP can be used as a selection criterion. In particular, since there are many criteria for measuring the value of information, each based on optimizing different objectives, we propose a new SDP-based criterion for measuring the value of information --- this criterion values information that leads to robust decisions (i.e., ones that are unlikely to change due to new information). We develop the first algorithm to optimize the value of information, given the SDP as the reward criterion, and show empirical results that prove the utility of this novel criterion. We further answer several questions regarding the computational complexity of the SDP, which is known to be PP^PP-complete. Finally, we present results of applying the SDP as an information gathering criterion in practical problems including tutoring systems (do we need to ask more questions?) and machine learning (do we have enough data?).
Download or read book Structured Decision Making written by Robin Gregory and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-19 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book outlines the creative process of making environmental management decisions using the approach called Structured Decision Making. It is a short introductory guide to this popular form of decision making and is aimed at environmental managers and scientists. This is a distinctly pragmatic label given to ways for helping individuals and groups think through tough multidimensional choices characterized by uncertain science, diverse stakeholders, and difficult tradeoffs. This is the everyday reality of environmental management, yet many important decisions currently are made on an ad hoc basis that lacks a solid value-based foundation, ignores key information, and results in selection of an inferior alternative. Making progress – in a way that is rigorous, inclusive, defensible and transparent – requires combining analytical methods drawn from the decision sciences and applied ecology with deliberative insights from cognitive psychology, facilitation and negotiation. The authors review key methods and discuss case-study examples based in their experiences in communities, boardrooms, and stakeholder meetings. The goal of this book is to lay out a compelling guide that will change how you think about making environmental decisions. Visit www.wiley.com/go/gregory/ to access the figures and tables from the book.
Download or read book Think Again written by Sydney Finkelstein and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2009-02-03 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight? Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need. Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.
Download or read book Shaping the Next One Hundred Years written by Robert J. Lempert and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
