Download or read book Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools written by Robert Taylor Clemen and published by Brooks/Cole Publishing Company. This book was released on 2001 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.
Download or read book Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools written by Robert Taylor Clemen and published by South-Western Pub. This book was released on 2001 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hardcover Textbook ISBN 0534383041 Decision Tools CD ISBN 0534409199 Decision Tools CD ISBN 0495015075 are included in the set.
Download or read book Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools written by Robert T. Clemen and published by Brooks/Cole. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Making Hard Decisions written by Robert Taylor Clemen and published by South Western Educational Publishing. This book was released on 1996-01 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This best-selling and up-to-date survey of decision analysis concepts and techniques is accessible to students with limited mathematical backgrounds. It is designed for advanced undergraduate and MBA-level courses in decision analysis and also for business courses in introductory quantitative methods. (Prerequisites: college algebra; introductory statistics.)
Download or read book How to Decide written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Download or read book Decisive written by Chip Heath and published by Random House Canada. This book was released on 2013-03-26 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.
Download or read book Value Added Decision Making for Managers written by Kenneth Chelst and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-10-05 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from the authors’ longstanding course on decision and risk analysis, Value-Added Decision Making for Managers explores the important interaction between decisions and management action and clarifies the barriers to rational decision making. The authors analyze strengths and weaknesses of the best alternatives, enabling decision makers to improve on these alternatives by adding value and reducing risk. The core of the text addresses decisions that involve selecting the best alternative from diverse choices. The decisions include buying a car, picking a supplier or home contractor, selecting a technology, picking a location for a manufacturing plant or sports stadium, hiring an employee or selecting among job offers, deciding on the size of a sales force, making a late design change, and sourcing to emerging markets. The book also covers more complex decisions arising in negotiations, strategy, and ethics that involve multiple dimensions simultaneously. Numerous activities interspersed throughout the text highlight real-world situations, helping readers see how the concepts presented can be used in their own work environment or personal life. Each chapter also includes discussion questions and references. Web Resource The book’s website at http://ise.wayne.edu/research/decision.php offers tutorials of Logical Decisions software for multi-objective decisions and Precision Tree software for probabilistic decisions. Directions for downloading student versions of the DecisionTools Suite and Logical Decisions software can be found in the appendices. Password-protected PowerPoint presentations for each chapter and solutions to all of the numeric examples are available for instructors.
Download or read book Algorithms for Decision Making written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 701 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, introducing the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. Automated decision-making systems or decision-support systems—used in applications that range from aircraft collision avoidance to breast cancer screening—must be designed to account for various sources of uncertainty while carefully balancing multiple objectives. This textbook provides a broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, covering the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. The book first addresses the problem of reasoning about uncertainty and objectives in simple decisions at a single point in time, and then turns to sequential decision problems in stochastic environments where the outcomes of our actions are uncertain. It goes on to address model uncertainty, when we do not start with a known model and must learn how to act through interaction with the environment; state uncertainty, in which we do not know the current state of the environment due to imperfect perceptual information; and decision contexts involving multiple agents. The book focuses primarily on planning and reinforcement learning, although some of the techniques presented draw on elements of supervised learning and optimization. Algorithms are implemented in the Julia programming language. Figures, examples, and exercises convey the intuition behind the various approaches presented.
Download or read book Judgment Calls written by Thomas H. Davenport and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2012-04-03 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.
Download or read book Strategic Decision Making written by Craig W. Kirkwood and published by Brooks/Cole. This book was released on 1997 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work on strategic decision making focuses on multi-objective decision analysis with spreadsheets
Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Download or read book Introduction to Decision Analysis written by David C. Skinner and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book is the most practical and thought-provoking step-by-step guide to making better decisions that is available today! Proven techniques and solid experience are the foundation for this classic text, which was written for the manager and for the decision analysis practitioner!"--
Download or read book People Risk Management written by Keith Blacker and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2015-04-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People Risk Management provides unique depth to a topic that has garnered intense interest in recent years. Based on the latest thinking in corporate governance, behavioural economics, human resources and operational risk, people risk can be defined as the risk that people do not follow the organization's procedures, practices and/or rules, thus deviating from expected behaviour in a way that could damage the business's performance and reputation. From fraud to bad business decisions, illegal activity to lax corporate governance, people risk - often called conduct risk - presents a growing challenge in today's complex, dispersed business organizations. Framed by corporate events and challenges and including case studies from the LIBOR rate scandal, the BP oil spill, Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland and Enron, People Risk Management provides best-practice guidance to managing risks associated with the behaviour of both employees and those outside a company. It offers practical tools, real-world examples, solutions and insights into how to implement an effective people risk management framework within an organization.
Download or read book Effective Decision Making written by Edoardo Binda Zane and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-04-28 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to quickly empower you to make better decisions by giving you step-by-step explanations of the best techniques. We always make decisions under uncertainty and pressure, especially in business. We need faster and better decisions to cope, but we don''t have the time to learn how to make them well. That is where I come in. I wrote this book to allow you to make better decisions without spending weeks studying theory and practice. THE INTRODUCTION gives you a snapshot of two decision-making biases, of the worst mistake you can do when making decision, and a lesson taken straight from philosophy. - Decision Biases (why your brain isn''t always your friend in decisions) - The Worst Mistake in Decision-Making - A Lesson From Another Time THE FIRST CHAPTER looks at frameworks of reference, meaning how you can apply decision-making to achieve your goals, for example how and why some decisions are able to automatically give you a competitive advantage. - The OODA Loop - The Recognition-Primed Decision Model - GROW or the John Whitmore Model - The PDSA Cycle CHAPTERS 2 TO 5 look at separate phases of decision-making: understanding your context, understanding the problem, generating solutions and selecting one option out of many. 2 - CONTEXT Contexts can be very different - and there is no one size fits all approach, which is why this book provides you with five. - SWOT and PEST - TELOS - Porter''s Five Forces - Causal Loops Diagrams 3 - PROBLEM ASSESSMENT Before making decisions, then, you need to work on finding out exactly what you are trying to solve. This chapter gives you 5 tools to do so: - Root Cause Analysis: Ishikawa''s Diagramand the 5 Whys Technique - Pareto Analysis - Kipling Method (5W1H) - CATWOE 4 - GENERATING IDEAS In "pure" decision-making, little attention is given to this phase, as it belongs to a different field: creativity. This book includes two tools: - Zwicky''s Box - SCAMPER 5 - WEIGHING ALTERNATIVES This book gives you six tools for this, each one with its specificities: - Weights and Factors: the Grid Analysis and the KT Matrix - The Paired Comparison Analysis - The Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix - The Analytic Hierarchy Process - The Eisenhower Matrix CHAPTER 6 AND 7 look at group decisions, meaning whether it''s a good idea to make decisions in a group and, if it is, how that group should make decisions. 6 - DO YOU NEED YOUR TEAM? You can either involve your team in decisions or exclude them. Often, managers are torn between these two options - you have three tools to help you though: - The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model - The Hoy-Tarter Model - The Hersey-Blanchard Model 7 - GROUP TECHNIQUES To be used when making decisions in a group is necessary. - The Nominal Group Technique - The Delphi Method - Hartnett''s Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making Model - The Stepladder Technique - DeBono''s Six Thinking Hats - The Charette Procedure - RAPID CHAPTERS 8 AND 9 look at decisions in corporate strategy and analyse a decision''s consequence 8 - CORPORATE STRATEGY These decision tools have all been developed for corporations, but they still hold value for smaller businesses. - The BCG Matrix - The Advantage Matrix - The GE Matrix - Blind Spot Analysis 9 - CONSEQUENCES In other words: "how can I make sure that the decision I made is the best one and will work in my specific situation?" Unfortunately nobody can answer this. Any decision method can only skew the odds of having made the right decision in your favour. That said, there are a few techniques you can apply. - Impact Assessment - Plus-Minus-Interesting - Decision Trees - Cost-Benefit Analysis - Futures Wheel
Download or read book The Risk Management Handbook written by David Hillson and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2023-08-03 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Risk Management Handbook offers readers knowledge of current best practice and cutting-edge insights into new developments within risk management. Risk management is dynamic, with new risks continually being identified and risk techniques being adapted to new challenges. Drawing together leading voices from the major risk management application areas, such as political, supply chain, cybersecurity, ESG and climate change risk, this edited collection showcases best practice in each discipline and provides a comprehensive survey of the field as a whole. This second edition has been updated throughout to reflect the latest developments in the industry. It incorporates content on updated and new standards such as ISO 31000, MOR and ISO 14000. It also offers brand new chapters on ESG risk management, legal risk management, cyber risk management, climate change risk management and financial risk management. Whether you are a risk professional wanting to stay abreast of your field, a student seeking a broad and up-to-date introduction to risk, or a business leader wanting to get to grips with the risks that face your business, this book will provide expert guidance.
Download or read book Verification Validation and Testing of Engineered Systems written by Avner Engel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-11-19 with total page 723 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Systems' Verification Validation and Testing (VVT) are carried out throughout systems' lifetimes. Notably, quality-cost expended on performing VVT activities and correcting system defects consumes about half of the overall engineering cost. Verification, Validation and Testing of Engineered Systems provides a comprehensive compendium of VVT activities and corresponding VVT methods for implementation throughout the entire lifecycle of an engineered system. In addition, the book strives to alleviate the fundamental testing conundrum, namely: What should be tested? How should one test? When should one test? And, when should one stop testing? In other words, how should one select a VVT strategy and how it be optimized? The book is organized in three parts: The first part provides introductory material about systems and VVT concepts. This part presents a comprehensive explanation of the role of VVT in the process of engineered systems (Chapter-1). The second part describes 40 systems' development VVT activities (Chapter-2) and 27 systems' post-development activities (Chapter-3). Corresponding to these activities, this part also describes 17 non-testing systems' VVT methods (Chapter-4) and 33 testing systems' methods (Chapter-5). The third part of the book describes ways to model systems' quality cost, time and risk (Chapter-6), as well as ways to acquire quality data and optimize the VVT strategy in the face of funding, time and other resource limitations as well as different business objectives (Chapter-7). Finally, this part describes the methodology used to validate the quality model along with a case study describing a system's quality improvements (Chapter-8). Fundamentally, this book is written with two categories of audience in mind. The first category is composed of VVT practitioners, including Systems, Test, Production and Maintenance engineers as well as first and second line managers. The second category is composed of students and faculties of Systems, Electrical, Aerospace, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering schools. This book may be fully covered in two to three graduate level semesters; although parts of the book may be covered in one semester. University instructors will most likely use the book to provide engineering students with knowledge about VVT, as well as to give students an introduction to formal modeling and optimization of VVT strategy.
Download or read book Decision Making in Conservation and Natural Resource Management written by Nils Bunnefeld and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to making good decisions about wildlife management and biodiversity conservation against a backdrop of socio-environmental change.
