Download or read book Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict written by Patcharaporn Leepipatpiboon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-17 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict

Download or read book Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict written by Edward Miguel and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.

Download or read book Echoes Across Borders written by Hany Abdel-Latif and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-05-17 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict within sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a new Conflict Spillover Index (CSI), which accounts for conflict intensity and distance from conflict-affected countries. Our findings reveal an escalation in conflict spillovers across SSA since 2011, marked by considerable cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse responses show that conflict spillovers shocks significantly and persistently hinder economic growth, while concurrently elevating inflation in the “home” country. Conflict spillover shocks are also associated with increases in (current) government spending and government debt. Furthermore, the international trade transmission channel of spillovers operates mostly through increased imports, while negative effects on FDI winddown over time. Moreover, state-dependent impulse responses underscore the importance of good governance, fiscal space, and foreign aid in attenuating the adverse macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict. The detrimental impact of conflict on output is more severe in environments with weaker governance and limited fiscal space. Government expenditures tend to rise following a spillover shock in contexts of high governmental effectiveness, possibly reflecting the use of policy buffers to respond to shocks. In that context, the papers shed light on important factors to promote resilience in SSA economies.

Download or read book Economic Shocks and Conflict written by Samuel Bazzi and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most influential ideas in the study of political instability is that income shocks provoke conflict. 'State prize' theories argue that higher revenues increase incentives to capture the state. 'Opportunity cost' theories argue that higher prices decrease individual incentives to revolt. Both mechanisms are central to leading models of state development and collapse. But are they wellfounded? We examine the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on conflict and coups, and find little evidence in favor of either theory. Evidence runs especially against the state as prize. We do find weak evidence that the intensity of fighting falls as prices rise, results more consistent with the idea that revenues augment state capacity, not prize-seeking or opportunity cost. Nevertheless, the evidence for any of these income-conflict mechanisms is weak at best. We argue that errors and publication bias have likely distorted the theoretical and empirical literature on political instability.

Download or read book Economic Shocks and Conflict written by Samuel Bazzi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Higher national incomes are correlated with lower political instability. We test three theories linking income to conflict using a new database of export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflicts, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, lead to shorter, less intense wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize attempts at capture, but accords with two theories: that rising revenues improve state counter-insurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability.

Download or read book Supply Shock written by Brian Czech and published by New Society Publishers. This book was released on 2013-04-26 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Politicians, economists, and Wall Street would have us believe that limitless economic expansion is the Holy Grail, and that there is no conflict between growing the economy and protecting the environment. Supply Shock debunks these widely accepted myths and demonstrates that we are in fact navigating the end of the era of economic growth, and that the only sustainable alternative is the development of a steady state economy. Starting with a refreshingly accessible, comprehensive critique of economic growth, the author engages readers in an enormous topic that affects everyone in every country. Publisher's Weekly favorably compared Czech to Carl Sagan for popularizing their difficult subjects; Supply Shock shows why. Czech presents a compelling alternative to growth based on keen scientific, economic, and political insights including: The "trophic theory of money" The overlooked source of technological progress that prevents us from reconciling growth and environmental protection Bold yet practical policies for establishing a steady state economy. Supply Shock leaves no doubt that the biggest idea of the 20th century – economic growth – has become the biggest problem of the 21st. Required reading for anyone concerned about the world our children and grandchildren will inherit, this landmark work lays a solid foundation for a new economic model, perhaps in time for preventing global catastrophes; certainly in time for lessening the damages.

Download or read book Economic Shocks and Varieties of Conflict written by Eoin McGuirk and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do economic shocks cause civil conflict? Evidence at the country level is ambiguous. We study the impact of plausibly exogenous shocks to world food prices on civil conflict in Africa using panel data at the level of a 0.5 degree grid cell. We find that higher prices lead to fewer civil conflict battles in cells that produce food, and more civil conflict battles in cells that consume food. We interpret this as evidence that negative income shocks cause civil conflict, as rising prices increase income for producers and decrease income for consumers in real terms. The result is consistent with a model that allows for a distinction between two varieties of conflict. In food-producing cells, higher prices reduce civil conflict battles over the control of territory (what we call "factor conflict") and increase smaller-scale conflict over the appropriation of surplus ("output conflict"). This difference arises because higher prices raise the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers, while also inducing net consumers to appropriate increasingly valuable surplus as their real wages fall. In food-consuming cells, higher prices increase both forms of conflict, as poor consumers turn to soldiering and appropriation in order to maintain a minimum consumption target. We corroborate the model's predictions on output conflict using both cell-level data on violence and looting and geocoded survey data on theft and physical assault. Ignoring distinctions between consumer and producer effects leads to attenuated estimates. Projected price changes from 2010-2050 are expected to substantially increase both forms of conflict.

Download or read book The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Download or read book Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict written by Antonio Ciccone and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Globalization Economic Shocks and Internal Armed Conflict written by Ibrahim Elbadawi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Transistory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict written by Antonio Ciccone and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Culture Economic Shocks and Conflict written by Gautam Bose and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents an important channel through which culture may affect conflict. We examine a panel of developing countries over fifty years and use price shocks to extractive commodities as an exogenous variation in the country's economic outlook. We find that these price shocks are less likely to result in the onset of civil war and conflict in countries that have higher levels of trust. However, we also find that trust does not moderate price shocks' effect on the cessation of conflict. Our study provides new empirical evidence on the interdependence of economic shocks and culture on conflict.

Download or read book Climate Shocks and Domestic Conflicts in Africa written by Yoro Diallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-16 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the interlinkages between climate shocks, domestic conflicts, and policy resilience in Africa. It builds on a Correlated Random Effect model to asess these interrelationships on a broad sample of 51 African countries over the 1990-2018 period. We find suggestive evidence that climate shocks, as captured through weather shocks, increase the likelihood of domestic conflicts, by as high as up to 38 percent. However, the effect holds only for intercommunal conflicts, not for government-involved conflicts. The effect is maginified in countries with more unequal income distribution and a stronger share of young male demographics. The results are robust to a wide set of sensitivity checks, including using various indicators of weather shocks and domestic conflicts, and alternative estimation techniques. The findings shed light on key policy resilience factors, including steadily improving domestic revenue mobilization, strengthening social protection and access to basic health care services, scaling up public investment in the agriculture sector, and stepping up anti-desertification efforts.

Download or read book Trading Away from Conflict written by Massimiliano Calì and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While economic growth in developing countries over the last ten years has lifted more people out of poverty than in any previous time, more than one billion people still live in countries affected by violent conflict. Conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks, in particular, can have widely varying impacts on conflict. This book sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis.

Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity What are the Channels of Impact written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Download or read book Where Did All the Growth Go written by Dani Rodrik and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse after the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shocks on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).

Download or read book The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare written by Yoro Diallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-27 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.