Download or read book Macroeconomic Risk and Idiosyncratic Risk Taking written by Zhiyao Chen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop and estimate a dynamic model of risk-shifting over the business cycle. First, equity holders with Epstein-Zin preferences increase their taking of idiosyncratic risk substantially more than the standard model in repeated games, because they perceive the arrival probability of bad states higher than the actual probability and prefer an early resolution of macroeconomic uncertainty. Second, sudden switches to bad states and large shocks in the bad states induce the countercyclical and "synchronized'' idiosyncratic risk. Third, combined with high market risk premium in the bad states, the clustered risk-taking generates the countercyclical idiosyncratic volatility discount on equity returns.

Download or read book Corporate Decision Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty written by Lars Oxelheim and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008-09-26 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic turbulence and volatility in financial markets can fatally affect a firm's performance. Very few firms make serious attempts to inform market participants and other outsider stakeholders about the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations, and, worse, top management in most firms cannot differentiate between when a change in performance is due to a change in the firm's intrinsic competitiveness or a reflection of macroeconomic conditions outside their influence. Corporate Decision-Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Performance and Risk Management develops and presents in an easily comprehensible way the essential elements of a corporate strategy for managing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. This Macroeconomic Uncertainty Strategy, or MUST, enhances firm value by allowing management and external stakeholders to become better informed about the development of corporate competitiveness in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The MUST also provides guidelines for how to develop a successful risk management program.

Download or read book Risk Taking and Optimal Taxation with Nontradable Human Capital written by Zuliu Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-12-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the effects of taxation on individual/entrepreneurs’ risk-taking behavior? This paper re-examines this old question in a continuous time life-cycle model. We demonstrate that the stream of uncertain income from human capital has systematic effects on demand for the risky physical capital asset. If labor supply is inelastic and real wages are known with certainty, then a labor income tax will reduce holdings of the risky physical asset. However, if there are random fluctuations in labor income, then the effect depends on the nature of interaction between wage risk and investment income risk. A labor income tax may actually raise demand for the risky capital asset if human capital risk and physical capital risk are positively correlated. The idiosyncratic risk and nontradability of human capital also have implications for optimal taxation. When the insurance and disincentive effects are jointly taken into account, a Pareto efficient tax structure implies a strictly positive tax rate.

Download or read book Deposit Insurance Around the World written by Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explicit deposit insurance (DI) is widely held to be a crucial element of modern financial safety nets. This book draws on an original cross-country dataset on DI systems and design features to examine the impact of DI on banking behavior and assess the policy complications that emerge in developing countries.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Risk written by Mr.Anthony J. Richards and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-11-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper models the idiosyncratic or asset-specific return of an asset as the return on a portfolio that is long in that asset and short in other assets in the same class, thereby removing the common components of returns. This is the type of “hedged” position that is held by relative-value investors. Weekly returns data for seven different asset classes suggest that idiosyncratic risk is: higher at times of large return outcomes for the asset class as a whole; positively autocorrelated; and correlated across different asset classes. The implications for risk management are discussed.

Download or read book Efficient Risk Sharing Rules with Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes and Background Risks written by Christoph Kuzmics and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an exchange economy in which there is a complete set of markets for macroeconomic risks but no market for idiosyncratic risks, we consider how the efficient risk-sharing rules for the macroeconomic risk are affected by the heterogeneity in the consumers' risk attitudes and idiosyncratic risks. We provide sufficient conditions under which an idiosyncratic risk increases cautiousness (the derivative of the reciprocal of the absolute risk aversion), the determinant of the curvatures of the efficient risk-sharing rules. While the curvature of the risk-sharing rules at high consumption levels are governed by the consumers' risk attitudes, the curvature at low consumption levels depend not only on the risk attitudes but also on the lower tail distributions of the idiosyncratic risks.

Download or read book Financial Integration Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Dynamics written by George-Marios Angeletos and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does financial integration impact capital accumulation, current-account dynamics, and cross-country inequality? This paper investigates this question within a two-country, general-equilibrium, incomplete-markets model that focuses on the importance of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk -- a risk that introduces, not only a precautionary motive for saving, but also a wedge between the interest rate and the marginal product of capital. This friction provides a simple resolution to the empirical puzzle that capital often fails to flow from the rich or slow-growing countries to the poor or fast-growing ones, and a distinct set of policy lessons regarding the intertemporal costs and benefits of capital-account liberalization. Illus. A print on demand report.

Download or read book Time varying Risk Premia Sources of Macroeconomic Risk and Aggregate Stock Market Behavior written by Massimiliano De Santis and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Why Does Idiosyncratic Risk Increase with Market Risk written by Söhnke M. Bartram and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1963 through 2015, idiosyncratic risk (IR) is high when market risk (MR) is high. We show that the positive relation between IR and MR is highly stable through time and is robust across exchanges, firm size, liquidity, and market-to-book groupings. Though stock liquidity affects the strength of the relation, the relation is strong for the most liquid stocks. The relation has roots in fundamentals as higher market risk predicts greater idiosyncratic earnings volatility and as firm characteristics related to the ability of firms to adjust to higher uncertainty help explain the strength of the relation. Consistent with the view that growth options provide a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, we find evidence that the relation is weaker for firms with more growth options.

Download or read book Risk Sharing of Disaggregate Macroeconomic and Idiosyncratic Shocks written by Gregory D. Hess and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk taking Adaptation to Macroeconomic Experiences written by Remy Levin and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back written by Daniele Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for a typical multi-factor model with time-varying risk exposures to macroeconomic risk factors and corresponding premia to price U.S. stocks and bonds. The model assumes that risk exposures and idiosyncratic volatility follow a break-point latent process, allowing for changes at any point in time but not restricting them to change at all points. An empirical application to 40 years of U.S. data and 23 portfolios shows that the approach yields sensible results compared to previous two-step methods based on naive recursive estimation schemes, as well as a set of alternative model restrictions. A variance decomposition test shows that although most of the predictable variation comes from the market risk premium, a number of additional macroeconomic risks, including real output and inflation shocks, are significantly priced in the cross-section. A Bayes factor analysis decisively favors the proposed change-point model.

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Download or read book Risk Shocks Risk Management and Investment written by Jonathan E. Goldberg and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of shocks to idiosyncratic business risk in an economy with endogenously incomplete markets. I develop a model in which firms face idiosyncratic risk and obtain insurance from intermediaries through contracts akin to credit lines. Insurance is imperfect due to limited commitment in financial contracts. Although steady-state capital is higher than if firms were constrained to issue only standard equity, a rise in uncertainty about idiosyncratic business outcomes leads to an endogenous reduction in risk sharing. This deterioration in risk sharing results from a general-equilibrium shortage of pledgeable assets and implies that the economy's response to an increase in idiosyncratic business risk can be amplified by financial contracting rather than dampened. In a parametrized version of the model, a rise in idiosyncratic business risk generates a large increase in uncertainty about aggregate investment.

Download or read book Capital Structure Dynamics and Risks written by Abdul Rashid and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite ample research on corporate financing decisions, there is a growing interest in deepening our understanding of how firms structure their financing needs. In this dissertation, we build upon previous work on capital structure by examining the impact of firm-specific and macroeconomic risks on the capital structure of UK manufacturing firms. In particular, the dissertation consists of three separate, yet related essays. Each essay intends to serve a specific objective. The essays, in the order in which they appear, are entitled as follows: Essay I: The Response of Firms' Leverage to Risks: Evidence from UK Public versus Non-Public Firms Essay II: Capital Structure Adjustments: Do Macroeconomic and Business Risks Matter? Essay III: Macroeconomic Dynamics, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Firms' Security Issuance Decisions: An Empirical Investigation of UK Manufacturing Firms In the first essay, we empirically investigate whether the sensitivity of leverage to firm-specific (idiosyncratic) and macroeconomic risk differs across publicly listed and privately owned firms. We also study the implications of cash reserves-risk interactions for firms' leverage decisions. Using data from the Financial Analysis Made Easy (FAME) database, the analysis is carried out for a large panel of UK manufacturing firms over the period 1999-2008. The results provide significant evidence that UK manufacturing firms use less short-term debt in their capital structure during periods of high risk. This finding holds for both types of risk. The results on the differential effects of risk across public and non-public firms indicate that while the leverage of non-public firms is more sensitive to firm-specific risk in comparison to their public counterparts, the effects of macroeconomic risk on leverage are similar for both types of firms. The results of the indirect effects of risk show that firms with high levels of cash holdings are more (less) likely to reduce their leverage in periods when firm-specific (macroeconomic) is risk. On the whole, the results that we document in this essay provide strong evidence of the heterogenous sensitivities of leverage to risk across both types of firms and across different levels of firms' cash holdings. Essay II examines how risk affects firms' leverage adjustment decisions. Specifically, in this essay, we study the impact of risk about firms' own business activity and macroeconomic conditions on the speed with which firms adjust their capital structure toward their specific leverage targets. In doing this, we use an annual panel data obtained from the WorldScope file via DataStream for a fairly large sample of quoted UK manufacturing, covering the period 1981-2009. The results suggest that the adjustment is asymmetric and it depends on the magnitude of risk, the type of risk, and whether firms' actual leverage is above or below the target. Further, we find that firms with financial surpluses and above-target leverage adjust their leverage faster when firm-specific risk is low and when macroeconomic risk is high. In contrast, firms with financial deficits and below-target leverage are more likely to align their leverage toward their target in periods when both types of risk are low. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that firms adjust their leverage toward the target very asymmetrically across different levels and types of risk. This finding holds true even when we take into account several firm characteristics known to affect firms' adjustment speeds. The third essay analyzes how risk about firms' own business activity and macroeconomic conditions influences the security issuance decisions of listed UK manufacturing firms appeared on the WorldScope database during the period from 1981-2009. Estimating dynamic panel models using the system GMM estimator, we show that the issuance of new debt is significantly negatively related to idiosyncratic risk while both the issuance of new equity and the use of internally generated funds (retained earnings) are positively related to the risk. In contrast, we find that all these three sources of financing are significantly negatively associated with macroeconomic risk. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the aggregate dynamics of firms' target leverage are significantly negatively linked with these two types of risk. The results, from the debt-equity choice regression, indicate that the effect of both firm-specific and macroeconomic risk is significant and negative, implying that firms are likely to have low debt-equity ratio in periods when either type of risk is high.

Download or read book Optimal Investment and Financing with Macroeconomic Risk and Loan Guarantees written by Xiaolin Tang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider an entrepreneur who has no assets in place but possesses an option to invest in a project incurring a lump-sum investment cost, of which a fraction must be financed by entering into an equity-for-guarantee swap. The entrepreneur is exposed to macroeconomic risk as well as idiosyncratic risk. The former is described by a regime-switching process; the latter by a geometric Brownian motion. We derive the corporate security prices, guarantee costs, optimal investment and financing policy. Numerical analysis discovers that the entrepreneur postpones investment in boom but accelerates in recession. The optimal leverage ratio is countercyclical when the project idiosyncratic risk is low and vice versa. The swap mechanism eliminates ex-post agency conflicts between the borrowers and lenders but the conflicts of interest between the borrowers and the insurers appear, which induce inefficiencies from asset substitution and debt overhang. They are generally not so obvious in boom or if boom occurs frequently. The swap overcomes financing frictions and increases firm value as well.

Download or read book Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: