Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by Matteo Villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Futures of Europe written by Commission of the European Communities and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1976-11-04 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1976, this book is based on material produced by members of the Europe Plus Thirty project.
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Download or read book Long range Forecasting and Regional Disparities in Europe written by J. Robert and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Methods of Long Term Planning and Forecasting written by T S Khachaturov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-30 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Territorial Planning and Long range Forecasting in Europe written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Climate Time Series Analysis written by Manfred Mudelsee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-08-26 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. This makes the book self-contained for graduate students and researchers.
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Download or read book Annual and Long Term Public Finances in Central and Eastern European Countries written by Eugeniusz Ruśkowski and published by Wydawnictwo Temida 2. This book was released on 2013 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Corporate Responses to EU Emissions Trading written by Jon Birger Skjærseth and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-13 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European Union (EU) aims to put Europe on track toward a low-carbon economy. In this striking challenge, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been singled out as the Union’s key climate policy instrument, ultimately aimed as a model for a global carbon market. The learning effect of the EU ETS could thus be tremendous. This study explores how the EU ETS actually works on the ground, affecting corporate climate strategies. It covers general sector responses as well as systematic comparative studies of companies across the sectors. The latter enables improved understanding of causal effects and the role of interaction between different policy instruments and other factors that impact corporate climate strategies. The study explores a broad set of mechanisms at play potentially linking the EU ETS to company climate strategies. These include how corporate norms of responsibility are affected by the EU ETS and how economic incentives provide opportunities for innovation. The book’s main contribution lies in its systematic examination of corporate responses to the EU ETS from a broad empirical and analytical social science perspective covering companies in all main EU ETS sectors: electric power, oil, cement, steel and pulp and paper.
Download or read book Hearings Reports and Prints of the Senate Committee on Public Works written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 1040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Choosing Our Environment Can We Anticipate the Future Future analysis and the environment written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works. Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Futures analysis and the environment written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works. Panel on Environmental Science and Technology and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 2162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Choosing Our Environment Can We Anticipate the Future written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works. Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 1258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Choosing Our Environment Futures analysis and the environment written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works. Panel on Environmental Science and Technology and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
