Download or read book Long term Behavior of Yield Curves written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Long Term Behavior of Yield Curves written by Charles R. Nelson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flattening of yield curves at long-term maturities is proven to be approximately proportional to the reciprocal of the time to maturity under general conditions. This is a consequence of the persistence of earlier forward rates in the averaging process which produces yields from forward rates. This relationship suggests the use of aquot;reciprocal maturity yield curvequot; which significantly facilitates the interpretation of the behavior of long-term yields by linearizing them for display over a shorter interval. This is illustrated using a yield curve for U.S.Treasury bills.

Download or read book Long term Behavior of Yield Curves written by Andrew F. Siegel and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flattening of yield curves at long-term maturities is proven to be approximately proportional to the reciprocal of the time to maturity under general conditions. This is a consequence of the persistence of earlier forward rates in the averaging process which produces yields from forward rates. This relationship suggests the use of a"reciprocal maturity yield curve" which significantly facilitates the interpretation of the behavior of long-term yields by linearizing them for display over a shorter interval. This is illustrated using a yield curve for U.S.Treasury bills.

Download or read book Riding the Yield Curve Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment written by Mr.Ralph Chami and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.

Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Asymptotic Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Maximilian Härtel and published by Cuvillier Verlag. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long-term interest rates are essential for the valuation and hedging of various fixed income products and derivatives as well as for the pricing of payments in a distant future, such as long-term infrastructure projects or compensatory adjustments in the course of an accident or a divorce. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis the modeling of interest rate curves with a long time horizon became more and more important due to increased investments in long-term products. Therefore, the study of the asymptotic behavior of the term structure of interest rates has recently achieved new relevance. In this dissertation we investigate long-term interest rates, i.e. interest rates with maturity going to infinity, in the post-crisis interest rate market. Three different concepts of long-term interest rates are considered for this purpose: the long-term yield, the long-term simple rate, and the long-term swap rate. We analyze the properties as well as the interrelations of these long-term interest rates. In particular, we study the asymptotic behavior of the term structure of interest rates in some specific models. First, we compute the three long-term interest rates in the HJM framework with different stochastic drivers, namely Brownian motions, Lévy processes, and affine processes on the state space of positive semidefinite symmetric matrices. The HJM setting presents the advantage that the entire yield curve can be modeled directly. Furthermore, by considering increasingly more general classes of drivers, we were able to take into account the impact of different risk factors and their dependence structure on the long end of the yield curve. Finally, we study the long-term interest rates and especially the long-term swap rate in the Flesaker-Hughston model and the linear-rational methodology. Langfristige Zinssätze werden für die Bewertung und Absicherung von festverzinslichen Finanzprodukten und Derivaten mit langer Laufzeit benötigt, sowie bei der Preisberechnung von Zahlungen, die in weiter Zukunft liegen. Solche Zahlungen kann es beispielsweise bei langfristig angelegten Infrastrukturprojekten geben oder bei Ausgleichsregelungen im Falle eines Unfalls oder einer Scheidung. Gerade im Zuge der weltweiten Finanzkrise von 2008 wuchs das Interesse von Anlegern an Investments mit langem Zeithorizont und damit auch die Notwendigkeit Zinskurven weiter in die Zukunft zu modellieren und das Verhalten am langen Ende der Kurven möglichst genau zu bestimmen. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich der Untersuchung des asymptotischen Verhaltens von Zinskurven. Zu diesem Zwecke werden drei verschiedene langfristige Zinssätze analysiert: der langfristige stetige Zinssatz, der langfristige diskrete Zinssatz und der langfristige Swapzinssatz. Diese langfristigen Zinsen werden definiert als Zinssätze deren Laufzeit gegen unendlich geht im Rahmen eines Zinsmarktes, der auf Erkenntnissen basiert, die aus der Finanzkrise gewonnen werden konnten. Alle modellunabhängigen relevanten Eigenschaften dieser Zinsen werden erläutert und die Zusammenhänge zwischen ihnen werden genauestens hinsichtlich ihrer Wechselbeziehungen untersucht. Darüber hinaus ist ein wichtiger Teil dieser Dissertation der Beschreibung des asymptotischen Verhaltens von Zinskurven in speziellen Zinsmodellen gewidmet. Diese Modelle umfassen das Zinsstrukturmodell von Heath, Jarrow und Morton, genannt HJM Framework, das Flesaker-Hughston Modell sowie das linear-rationale Modell. Das HJM Framework wird aufgrund der Möglichkeit der direkten Modellierung der gesamten Zinsstrukturkurve und aller dazugehörigen Terminkurse für die Analyse verwendet. Die stochastische Komponente wird erst mittels der Brownschen Bewegung beschrieben, dann durch einen Lévy Prozess und zuletzt mit Hilfe eines affinen Prozesses auf dem Zustandsraum von positiv semidefiniten und symmetrischen Matrizen. Der Gebrauch dieser stochastischen Prozesse kann als schrittweise Weiterentwicklung des HJM Frameworks verstanden werden, da jeweils mehr, die Zinsstruktur beeinflussende, Faktoren in die Modellierung mit einfließen können. Die anderen beiden vorgestellten Modelle, das Flesaker-Hughston Modell und das linear-rationale Modell, finden, wegen einiger attraktiver Eigenschaften, Anwendung in der Analyse des asymptotischen Zinskurvenverhaltens, wie zum Beispiel einfache Formeln für alle Zinssätze, die keine negativen Werte annehmen können.

Download or read book Yield Curve written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a brief survey of the relationship between the yield curve and future changes in interest rates and inflation. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure indicates .that when the yield curve is upward sloping, future short-term and long-term interest rates are expected to rise. Empirical evidence finds that as predicted by the expectations hypothesis, yield spreads are positively correlated with future changes in short-term interest rates, particularly at long horizons. However, yield spreads are negatively correlated with next period's change in long-term interest rates, the opposite prediction of the expectations hypothesis. Empirical evidence also suggests that the yield curve has almost no ability to forecast future inflation changes for short horizons: however, at horizons of a year or greater, the yield curve contains a great deal of information about the future path of inflation.

Download or read book Yield Curve Analysis written by Livingston G. Douglas and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1988 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With their increasing complexity, the fixed-income markets have made greater demands upon their participants. To be successful -- in this era of heightened volatility, especially -- requires a firm foundation in the precepts underlying the behavior of fixed-income investments. This book answers that need by presenting a comprehensive analysis of the two primary concepts: risk and return. Its four major sections develop and apply these concepts clearly and progressively, with outline and summary aids to enhance understanding and ample illustrations to reinforce the explanations.

Download or read book Notes on the Yield Curve written by Ian Martin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the yield curve under the assumptions that (i) the fixed-income market is complete and (ii) the state vector that drives interest rates follows a finite discrete-time Markov chain. We focus in particular on the relationship between the behavior of the long end of the yield curve and the recovered time discount factor and marginal utilities of a pseudo-representative agent; and on the relationship between the "trappedness" of an economy and the convergence of yields at the long end.

Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.

Download or read book Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.

Download or read book Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Moorad Choudhry and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-04-15 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understand and interpret the global debt capital markets Now in a completely updated and expanded edition, this is a technical guide to the yield curve, a key indicator of the global capital markets and the understanding and accurate prediction of which is critical to all market participants. Being able to accurately and timely predict the shape and direction of the curve permits practitioners to consistently outperform the market. Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve, 2nd Edition describes what the yield curve is, explains what it tells participants, outlines the significance of certain shapes that the curve assumes and, most importantly, demonstrates what factors drive it and how it is modelled and used. Covers the FTP curve, the multi-currency curve, CSA, OIS-Libor and 3-curve models Gets you up to speed on the secured curve Describes application of theoretical versus market curve relative value trading Explains the concept of the risk-free rate Accessible demonstration of curve interpolation best-practice using cubic spline, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson 94 models This advanced text is essential reading for traders, asset managers, bankers and financial analysts, as well as graduate students in banking and finance.

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Nicola Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1996-06-04 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.

Download or read book The Yield Curve and Real Activity written by Zuliu Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial press frequently suggest that the shape of yield curve reflects information about the prospects of the economy. This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and the real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. It is shown that the term structure embodies the market’s expectation about changes in the macroeconomic fundamental--the growth in real aggregate output of the economy. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results suggest that a simple measure of the slope of the yield curve, namely the yield spread, serves as a good predictor of future economic growth. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the yield spread compares favorably with that of the alternative stock price-based model and a univariate time series (ARMA) model. One practical implication is that it may be useful to add some measure of the term structure to the list of

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by David Meiselman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Kenneth Jan Singleton and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: