Download or read book Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model written by Huigang Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation results suggest that asymptotically our methodology performs well both in Bayesian model averaging and selection. In particular, LIBMA recovers the data generating process well, with high posterior inclusion probabilities for all the relevant regressors, and parameter estimates very close to their true values. These findings suggest that our methodology is well suited for inference in short dynamic panel data models with endogenous regressors in the context of model uncertainty. We illustrate the use of LIBMA in an application to the estimation of a dynamic gravity model for bilateral trade.

Download or read book Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods written by Alin Mirestean and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism to address the problem of model uncertainty. In this paper we extend the BMA framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation results suggest that asymptotically our methodology performs well both in Bayesian model selection and averaging. In particular, LIBMA recovers the data generating process very well, with high posterior inclusion probabilities for all the relevant regressors, and parameter estimates very close to the true values. These findings suggest that our methodology is well suited for inference in dynamic panel data models with short time periods in the presence of endogenous regressors under model uncertainty.

Download or read book The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies written by Luca De Benedictis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-21 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the EU preferential trade policy and, in particular, the impact it had on trade flows from developing countries. It shows that the capability of the "trade as aid" model to deliver its expected benefits to these countries crucially differs between preferential schemes and sectors. The book takes an eclectic but rigorous approach to the econometric analysis by combining different specifications of the gravity model. An in-depth presentation of the gravity model is also included, providing significant insights into the distinctive features of this technique and its state-of-art implementation. The evidence produced in the book is extensively applied to the analysis of the EU preferential policies with substantial suggestions for future improvement. Additional electronic material to replicate the book's analysis (datasets and Gams and Stata 9.0 routines) can be found in the Extra Materials menu on the website of the book.

Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Panel Data written by Badi Baltagi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-30 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the world's leading researchers and writers in the field, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data has become established as the leading textbook for postgraduate courses in panel data. This new edition reflects the rapid developments in the field covering the vast research that has been conducted on panel data since its initial publication. Featuring the most recent empirical examples from panel data literature, data sets are also provided as well as the programs to implement the estimation and testing procedures described in the book. These programs will be made available via an accompanying website which will also contain solutions to end of chapter exercises that will appear in the book. The text has been fully updated with new material on dynamic panel data models and recent results on non-linear panel models and in particular work on limited dependent variables panel data models.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data written by Badi Hani Baltagi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 705 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data examines new developments in the theory and applications of panel data. It includes basic topics like non-stationary panels, co-integration in panels, multifactor panel models, panel unit roots, measurement error in panels, incidental parameters and dynamic panels, spatial panels, nonparametric panel data, random coefficients, treatment effects, sample selection, count panel data, limited dependent variable panel models, unbalanced panel models with interactive effects and influential observations in panel data. Contributors to the Handbook explore applications of panel data to a wide range of topics in economics, including health, labor, marketing, trade, productivity, and macro applications in panels. This Handbook is an informative and comprehensive guide for both those who are relatively new to the field and for those wishing to extend their knowledge to the frontier. It is a trusted and definitive source on panel data, having been edited by Professor Badi Baltagi-widely recognized as one of the foremost econometricians in the area of panel data econometrics. Professor Baltagi has successfully recruited an all-star cast of experts for each of the well-chosen topics in the Handbook.

Download or read book Improving Motor Carrier Safety Measurement written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-10-01 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every year roughly 100,000 fatal and injury crashes occur in the United States involving large trucks and buses. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) in the U.S. Department of Transportation works to reduce crashes, injuries, and fatalities involving large trucks and buses. FMCSA uses information that is collected on the frequency of approximately 900 different violations of safety regulations discovered during (mainly) roadside inspections to assess motor carriers' compliance with Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations, as well as to evaluate their compliance in comparison with their peers. Through use of this information, FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (SMS) identifies carriers to receive its available interventions in order to reduce the risk of crashes across all carriers. Improving Motor Carrier Safety Measurement examines the effectiveness of the use of the percentile ranks produced by SMS for identifying high-risk carriers, and if not, what alternatives might be preferred. In addition, this report evaluates the accuracy and sufficiency of the data used by SMS, to assess whether other approaches to identifying unsafe carriers would identify high-risk carriers more effectively, and to reflect on how members of the public use the SMS and what effect making the SMS information public has had on reducing crashes.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Download or read book Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance written by J.E. Trinidad-Segovia and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.

Download or read book Model Selection and Multimodel Inference written by Kenneth P. Burnham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-28 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique and comprehensive text on the philosophy of model-based data analysis and strategy for the analysis of empirical data. The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. It contains several new approaches to estimating model selection uncertainty and incorporating selection uncertainty into estimates of precision. An array of examples is given to illustrate various technical issues. The text has been written for biologists and statisticians using models for making inferences from empirical data.

Download or read book Panel Data Econometrics written by Mike Tsionas and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-06-19 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Panel Data Econometrics: Theory introduces econometric modelling. Written by experts from diverse disciplines, the volume uses longitudinal datasets to illuminate applications for a variety of fields, such as banking, financial markets, tourism and transportation, auctions, and experimental economics. Contributors emphasize techniques and applications, and they accompany their explanations with case studies, empirical exercises and supplementary code in R. They also address panel data analysis in the context of productivity and efficiency analysis, where some of the most interesting applications and advancements have recently been made. - Provides a vast array of empirical applications useful to practitioners from different application environments - Accompanied by extensive case studies and empirical exercises - Includes empirical chapters accompanied by supplementary code in R, helping researchers replicate findings - Represents an accessible resource for diverse industries, including health, transportation, tourism, economic growth, and banking, where researchers are not always econometrics experts

Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.

Download or read book Probabilistic Robotics written by Sebastian Thrun and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the techniques and algorithms of the newest field in robotics. Probabilistic robotics is a new and growing area in robotics, concerned with perception and control in the face of uncertainty. Building on the field of mathematical statistics, probabilistic robotics endows robots with a new level of robustness in real-world situations. This book introduces the reader to a wealth of techniques and algorithms in the field. All algorithms are based on a single overarching mathematical foundation. Each chapter provides example implementations in pseudo code, detailed mathematical derivations, discussions from a practitioner's perspective, and extensive lists of exercises and class projects. The book's Web site, www.probabilistic-robotics.org, has additional material. The book is relevant for anyone involved in robotic software development and scientific research. It will also be of interest to applied statisticians and engineers dealing with real-world sensor data.

Download or read book Urban Stormwater Management in the United States written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-17 with total page 611 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid conversion of land to urban and suburban areas has profoundly altered how water flows during and following storm events, putting higher volumes of water and more pollutants into the nation's rivers, lakes, and estuaries. These changes have degraded water quality and habitat in virtually every urban stream system. The Clean Water Act regulatory framework for addressing sewage and industrial wastes is not well suited to the more difficult problem of stormwater discharges. This book calls for an entirely new permitting structure that would put authority and accountability for stormwater discharges at the municipal level. A number of additional actions, such as conserving natural areas, reducing hard surface cover (e.g., roads and parking lots), and retrofitting urban areas with features that hold and treat stormwater, are recommended.

Download or read book Lessons from NAFTA written by Luis Serven and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2004-11-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzing the experience of Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 'Lessons from NAFTA' aims to provide guidance to Latin American and Caribbean countries considering free trade agreements with the United States. The authors conclude that the treaty raised external trade and foreign investment inflows and had a modest effect on Mexico's average income per person. It is likely that the treaty also helped achieve a modest reduction in poverty and an improvement in job quality. This book will be of interest to scholars and policymakers interested in international trade and development.

Download or read book Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance written by Mihail C. Roco and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: M. C. Roco and W.S. Bainbridge In the early decades of the 21st century, concentrated efforts can unify science based on the unity of nature, thereby advancing the combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and new technologies based in cognitive science. With proper attention to ethical issues and societal needs, converging in human abilities, societal technologies could achieve a tremendous improvement outcomes, the nation's productivity, and the quality of life. This is a broad, cross cutting, emerging and timely opportunity of interest to individuals, society and humanity in the long term. The phrase "convergent technologies" refers to the synergistic combination of four major "NBIC" (nano-bio-info-cogno) provinces of science and technology, each of which is currently progressing at a rapid rate: (a) nanoscience and nanotechnology; (b) biotechnology and biomedicine, including genetic engineering; (c) information technology, including advanced computing and communications; (d) cognitive science, including cognitive neuroscience. Timely and Broad Opportunity. Convergence of diverse technologies is based on material unity at the nanoscale and on technology integration from that scale.