Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics A Hidden Markov Approach written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

Download or read book The Dual U S Labor Market Uncovered written by Hie Joo Ahn and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. The different market segments are identified through (in-)equality constraints on labor market transition probabilities. This method yields time series of stocks and flows for the three segments for 1980-2021. Workers in the primary sector, who make up around 55 percent of the population, are almost always employed and rarely experience unemployment. The secondary sector, which constitutes 14 percent of the population, absorbs most of the short-run fluctuations, both at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. Workers in this segment experience six times higher turnover rates than those in the primary tier and are ten times more likely to be unemployed than their primary counterparts. The tertiary segment consists of workers who infrequently participate in the labor market but nevertheless experience unemployment when they try to enter the labor force. Our individual-level analysis shows that observable demographic characteristics only explain a small part of the cross-individual variation in segment membership. The combination of the aggregate and individual-level evidence we provide points to dualism in the U.S. labor market being an equilibrium division of labor, under labor market imperfections, that minimizes adjustment costs in response to predictable seasonal as well as unpredictable business cycle fluctuations.

Download or read book Studies in Labor Market Dynamics written by G. R. Neumann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume consists of papers presented at a conference on labor mar ket theory held in August 1982 at Sandbjerg - a manor house situated in S0nderjylland owned by University of Aarhus. The conference was ar ranged to mark the start of a labor market research project utilizing the first Danish longitudinal data set. The conference was meant to present a survey of the recent developments within labor market theory where unemployment at a given time is seen as a result of flows of in dividuals between the various labor market states. Consequently, al most all papers deal with aspects of transitions on the labor market. The first paper by Andersen discusses from a statisticians point of view how it is possible to analyze longitudinal data on labor market dynamics using statistical models for multivariate counting processes. Models including general calendar time specific intensities and models specifying the distribution of spell lengths as well as their combina tions are included. Finally it is demonstrated how the effect of exo genous, endogenous, and other time dependent variables can be model led. This paper does also contain an example of the application of the model.

Download or read book Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth Role of Measurement Error in the U S Current Population Survey written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Download or read book Comparative Analysis of Labor Market Dynamics Using Markov Processes an Application to Informality written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Comparative Analysis of Labor Market Dynamics Using Markov Processes written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Essay on Labor Market Dynamics written by William Franklin Shughart and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Nonlinear Labor Market Dynamics written by Michael Neugart and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-05-06 with total page 766 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear Labor Market Dynamics discusses adjustment processes in labor markets. Contrary to linear-stochastic approaches this book is based on a non-linear deterministic framework. It is shown that even textbook-like-models of the labor market can generate long lasting adjustment processes, local instabilities, and chaotic movements, once nonlinear relationships and widely accepted adjustment rules are introduced. Thus, labor market dynamics may have an endogenous component that is governed by a nonlinear deterministic core. Of course, all results are tied to the particular models discussed in this book. Nevertheless, these models imply that by incorporating nonlinear relationships, one may arrive at an explanation of labor market behavior where linear stochastic approaches fell. Time series studies for German labor market data support this point of view.

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics Over the Business Cycle written by Jeremy S. Schwartz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the evolution of the U.S. labor market across the business cycle and specifically the relationship between the unemployment rate and the average duration of unemployment. Labor market recoveries have long been thought of as lagging recoveries in broad economic activity. In particular, the unemployment rate peaks several months after official business cycle troughs and the average duration of unemployment lags further behind. Using estimates from Markov switching models of the unemployment rate, average duration of unemployment, jobless claims, and the exhaustion rate of regular unemployment insurance, this paper dates contractionary and expansionary phases of various aspects of the labor market and their relationship to the official phases of the business cycle. Evidence from these models suggests that inflows into unemployment recover almost contemporaneously with broad economic activity, while outflows recover almost a year after the end of official recessions. The differential timing in the recoveries of unemployment inflows and outflows, which is not a characteristic of most macro models of the labor market, accounts for the observed pattern between the unemployment rate and average duration of unemployment. Finally, when comparing the phases of the labor market to periods where Congress extends unemployment insurance benefits, it appears that policymakers target periods where the job finding rate is low, rather than periods where the stock of unemployed workers is high.

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics and Institutions written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyse labor market dynamics with an agent based model, which replicates a set of stylized facts in the labor market as well as aggregate regularities. We are able to reproduce the Beveridge curve, job creation and destruction flows, a persistent unemployment level, and wages stickiness. On the aggregate level, we observe a self-enforcing process of real income growth and average productivity growth. Model simulations allow us study the role of dynamic interactions among agents -individuals and firms- in a changing environment shaped by institutions. The key features are the microfoundations of the processes governing the labor market, such as job search by individuals, and matching and bargaining among firms and potential employees. -- Unemployment ; Beveridge curve ; Matching ; Technical Change

Download or read book Studies in Labor Market Dynamics written by G R Neumann and published by . This book was released on 1984-11-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Studies in Labor Market Dynamics written by Denmark) Workshop on Labor Market Dynamics (1982 : Sandbjerg and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics and Policy Evaluation written by Annette Bergemann and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Labor market Dynamics written by Dale Elwin Runge and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Efficiency and Labor Market Dynamics in a Model of Labor Selection written by Sanjay K. Chugh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Labor market Dynamics written by Dale Elwin Runge and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Studies in Labor Market Dynamics Proceedings of a Workshop on Labor Market Dynamics Held at Sandbjerg Denmark written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: